Sligo Rovers 0-0 Derry City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Derry City (38%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sligo Rovers face Derry City.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Derry City make the trip to Showgrounds to face Sligo Rovers in Premier Division, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Monday 6 April 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sligo Rovers's overall Premier Division record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Sligo Rovers's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Showgrounds this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Derry City have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 6W 4D 0L. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Derry City have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Derry City are 0.70 PPG clear of Sligo Rovers in recent Premier Division fixtures (2.20 vs 1.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: Sligo Rovers 2W, Derry City 4W, 2D.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Feb 2026, ended 1–2 with Derry City winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Sligo Rovers half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Derry City half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sligo Rovers 46% versus Derry City 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sligo Rovers 50% | Derry City 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sligo Rovers 0.87 xG and Derry City 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sligo Rovers attack 0.748 / defence 1.242 | Derry City attack 0.860 / defence 0.842. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.034. Sligo Rovers's attack strength of 0.748 is below the league average — the 0.87 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 45 Sligo Rovers games / 45 Derry City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 26% | Draw 36% | Derry City 38%. Fair-value odds: Sligo Rovers 3.85 | Draw 2.78 | Derry City 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Derry City are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Derry City if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.98 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sligo Rovers 40% | Derry City 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sligo Rovers vs Derry City | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Showgrounds • Kick-off: Monday 6 Apr 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 26% | Draw 36% | Derry City 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 42% | xG Sligo Rovers 0.87 / Derry City 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Sligo Rovers attack 0.748 / def 1.242 | Derry City attack 0.860 / def 0.842 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.034 • Poisson stance: Derry City (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Sligo Rovers xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Derry City xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sligo Rovers vs Derry City kick off?
Sligo Rovers vs Derry City kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 6 April 2026 at Showgrounds.
What was the final score in Sligo Rovers vs Derry City?
Sligo Rovers 0 - 0 Derry City.
Where is Sligo Rovers vs Derry City being played?
The match is being played at Showgrounds.
What competition is Sligo Rovers vs Derry City part of?
Sligo Rovers vs Derry City is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Sligo Rovers vs Derry City?
Our statistical model gives Sligo Rovers a 26% chance of winning, Derry City a 38% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Derry City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sligo Rovers vs Derry City?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Sligo Rovers and Derry City will score (BTTS).
Will Sligo Rovers vs Derry City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sligo Rovers and Derry City?
Record (8 meetings): Sligo Rovers 2W | Draws 2 | Derry City 4W.
What form are Sligo Rovers and Derry City in?
Sligo Rovers (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Derry City (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sligo Rovers's attack rating (0.75) and Derry City's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 0.87 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Derry City's attack (0.86x) against Sligo Rovers's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derry City Win
26%
3.88
36%
2.77
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Sligo Rovers xG
Total xG
1.98
1.10
Derry City xG
3.88
26%
Home win
2.77
36%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.41
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
42%
2.39
Win to Nil
9%
11.71
16%
6.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 15.3 | 8.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.3 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sligo Rovers vs Derry City?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Sligo Rovers and Derry City expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Sligo Rovers and 1.10 for Derry City, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Sligo Rovers vs Derry City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 72 outings, Sligo Rovers have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 24W 18D 30L record — W-L-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Derry City's form line: 32W 22D 18L from 72 games, 1.64 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Sligo Rovers against 1.64 for Derry City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Sligo Rovers have posted 1.44 PPG from 36 outings (14W 10D 12L).
On the road, Derry City have gone 14W 10D 12L from 36 away games — 1.44 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Sligo Rovers are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Derry City are on 1.39 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sligo Rovers
Current Season
Derry City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sligo Rovers and Derry City in coming into this match?
Sligo Rovers have gone 24W 18D 30L in their last 72 games (1.25 PPG), while Derry City have gone 32W 22D 18L in their last 72 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sligo Rovers at home or Derry City away?
Sligo Rovers's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sligo Rovers at home: 1.44 PPG; Derry City away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Sligo Rovers or Derry City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sligo Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Derry City in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 7 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Derry City won 3-0 on 22 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sligo Rovers have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Derry City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sligo Rovers
3
Draws
5
Derry City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sligo Rovers and Derry City?
From 10 meetings on record, Sligo Rovers have won 2, Derry City have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sligo Rovers and Derry City last play each other?
They last met on 7 August 2026, when Derry City 2-0 Sligo Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Sligo Rovers and Derry City?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sligo Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sligo Rovers 44%, Derry City 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Sligo Rovers) and 36% (Derry City).
On the defensive side: Sligo Rovers keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Derry City in 39%; Sligo Rovers have failed to score in 36% of games; Derry City in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sligo Rovers home games / Derry City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sligo Rovers play Derry City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Sligo Rovers's recent matches and 42% of Derry City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sligo Rovers vs Derry City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Sligo Rovers's recent games and 36% of Derry City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sligo Rovers and Derry City tend to score early?
Sligo Rovers have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Derry City in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sligo Rovers's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sligo Rovers and Derry City finished level at 0-0 at Showgrounds, Regular Season - 10, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sligo Rovers 0.87 xG and Derry City 1.10 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sligo Rovers fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Derry City landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sligo Rovers attack 0.75 / defence 1.24 against Derry City attack 0.86 / defence 0.84, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sligo Rovers 26% | Draw 36% | Derry City 38%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sligo Rovers 50%, Derry City 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sligo Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Derry City's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sligo Rovers 1.25 PPG, Derry City 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Derry City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.