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Poisson model rates Dundalk at 41%, yet in-form St Patrick's Athl. provide a compelling counter-argument — this Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees St Patrick's Athl. travel to Oriel Park to take on Dundalk. The game is scheduled for Monday 6 April 2026, 16:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Dundalk stand at 0W 3D 7L from 10 Premier Division matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Dundalk haven't played a Premier Division game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

At home at Oriel Park, Dundalk have gone 2W 1D 7L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Across all Premier Division games this season, St Patrick's Athl. have recorded 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

On the road, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. St Patrick's Athl. are 1.40 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using home/away splits). Dundalk's 20% and St Patrick's Athl.'s 20% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.

Head to Head

St Patrick's Athl. have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 9 encounters against Dundalk's 2 victories.

The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Feb 2026, ended 0–4 with St Patrick's Athl. winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. St Patrick's Athl. have won 5 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading Patterns

Dundalk in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 11% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 53% of games.

St Patrick's Athl. in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 38% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 39% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dundalk 39% versus St Patrick's Athl. 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Dundalk 28% | St Patrick's Athl. 39%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 1.28 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 1.065 / defence 0.885 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.068 / defence 0.867. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.034. Data: 9 Dundalk games / 45 St Patrick's Athl. games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Dundalk 41% | Draw 34% | St Patrick's Athl. 26%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 2.44 | Draw 2.94 | St Patrick's Athl. 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Dundalk at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form St Patrick's Athl. (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dundalk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Dundalk 20% | St Patrick's Athl. 20% BTTS from recent games.

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