Bohemians 1-1 Waterford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians at 65% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Bohemians face Waterford.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Bohemians welcome Waterford to Dalymount Park in Premier Division (matchday 10). Kick-off is Monday 6 April 2026 at 17:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Bohemians have gone 3W 3D 4L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bohemians's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Bohemians are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Waterford stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Waterford's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Bohemians) versus 0.80 (Waterford). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Bohemians, 3 for Waterford and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.9 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 6 Mar 2026, ended Bohemians 1–0 Waterford — a Bohemians win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.9 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Bohemians in-play and half-time data (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Waterford in-play and half-time data (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 49% versus Waterford 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 42% | Waterford 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 2.33 xG and Waterford 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 0.983 / defence 0.929 | Waterford attack 1.082 / defence 1.717. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.034. Waterford's defence rating of 1.717 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bohemians's projected output up. Data: built from Bohemians's last 45 games and Waterford's last 45.
Result probabilities: Bohemians 65% | Draw 22% | Waterford 14%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1.55 | Draw 4.60 | Waterford 7.28. The model has a clear lean to Bohemians (65%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (2.33 / 1.04) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians at 65% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.37 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Bohemians's last 10 home games and Waterford's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.9 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Bohemians 40% (last 10 home games) | Waterford 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs Waterford | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 10 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Monday 6 April 2026 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 65% | Draw 22% | Waterford 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% (Under 35%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Bohemians 2.33 / Waterford 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 0.983 / def 0.929 | Waterford attack 1.082 / def 1.717 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.034 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.33
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Waterford xG
60%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bohemians vs Waterford FAQs
What time does Bohemians vs Waterford kick off?
Bohemians vs Waterford kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Monday 6 April 2026 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs Waterford?
Bohemians 1 - 1 Waterford.
Where is Bohemians vs Waterford being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs Waterford part of?
Bohemians vs Waterford is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 10) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs Waterford?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 65% chance of winning, Waterford a 14% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs Waterford?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Bohemians and Waterford will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Bohemians vs Waterford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bohemians's attack at 0.98x the league average against Waterford's defence at 1.72x — combine the two and it projects 2.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Waterford's attack versus Bohemians's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bohemians's last 45 games and Waterford's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (9.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
65%
1.55
22%
4.60
14%
7.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.33
Bohemians xG
Total xG
3.37
1.04
Waterford xG
1.55
65%
Home win
4.60
22%
Draw
7.28
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
10%
10.30
Win to Nil
23%
4.38
1%
74.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.0 | 8.3 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bohemians vs Waterford Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs Waterford?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Bohemians and Waterford expected to score?
The model projects 2.33 expected goals for Bohemians and 1.04 for Waterford, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs Waterford?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bohemians's recent record stands at 26W 18D 28L from 72 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-W in the last five.
Waterford, meanwhile, have gone 25W 11D 36L across 72 games — 1.19 PPG, with W-L-D-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bohemians on 1.33 PPG, Waterford on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Bohemians have managed 14W 8D 14L from their last 36 home games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Waterford's away record stands at 11W 5D 20L across their last 36 away games, a 1.06 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Bohemians are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Waterford are on 1.18 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Current Season
Waterford
Current Season
Bohemians (Home) vs Waterford (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bohemians
Current Season
Waterford
Current Season
❓ Bohemians vs Waterford Form FAQs
What form are Bohemians and Waterford in coming into this match?
Bohemians have gone 26W 18D 28L in their last 72 games (1.33 PPG), while Waterford have gone 25W 11D 36L in their last 72 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians at home or Waterford away?
Bohemians's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians at home: 1.39 PPG; Waterford away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2024. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 16 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 7 Mar 2025, when Bohemians won Waterford 0-3 Bohemians.
Bohemians's record when hosting Waterford specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Bohemians
2
Draws
4
Waterford
Recent Meetings
❓ Bohemians vs Waterford H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Waterford?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Bohemians have won 4, Waterford have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and Waterford last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 October 2026: Bohemians 2-1 Waterford.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Waterford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 50%, Waterford 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Bohemians) and 50% (Waterford).
On the defensive side: Waterford in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / Waterford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bohemians vs Waterford Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bohemians and Waterford matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Bohemians's recent matches and 47% of Waterford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bohemians and Waterford matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Bohemians's recent games and 50% of Waterford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians and Waterford matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Bohemians's recent matches and 81% of Waterford's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bohemians and Waterford share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 10, as Bohemians and Waterford drew 1-1 in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 2.33 xG and Waterford 1.04 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Bohemians fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 0.98 / defence 0.93 against Waterford attack 1.08 / defence 1.72, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 65% | Draw 22% | Waterford 14%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 42%, Waterford 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Waterford's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1.33 PPG, Waterford 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.