Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Waterford host Shamrock Rovers at Regional Sports Centre in Premier Division, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 3 April 2026 at 18:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Waterford stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Premier Division matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Waterford have posted 3W 3D 4L at Regional Sports Centre — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Premier Division games this season, Shamrock Rovers have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Shamrock Rovers's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Shamrock Rovers are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
Shamrock Rovers have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the last 7 encounters against Waterford's 1 victories.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2025, ended 1–2 with Shamrock Rovers winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Shamrock Rovers have won 6 of 7 previous encounters, and at 2.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Team Stats
Waterford have played 37 games this season, recording 12W 6D 19L. Their scoring output is 1.2 per match with 1.6 conceded on average. Biggest win: 2-0 (H) / 2-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-4 (H) / 7-2 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 4 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 7 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 11 games this season. 5 clean sheets this season (3 at home, 2 away). Scored 2+ goals in 2 of 37 games (5%). Penalties this season: 2 scored / 0 missed from 2 awarded. Most used formation: 4-3-1-2. Discipline: 2.8 yellow cards per game, 0.08 reds per game.
Shamrock Rovers's cumulative Premier Division record this campaign: 19W 9D 8L from 36 matches. They average 1.6 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per game. Biggest win: 4-0 (H) / 1-3 (A). Heaviest defeat: 2-3 (H) / 2-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 5 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 7 games this season. 12 clean sheets this season (10 at home, 2 away). Scored 2+ goals in 5 of 36 games (14%). Penalties this season: 1 scored / 0 missed from 1 awarded. Most used formation: 5-3-2. Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards per game, 0.06 reds per game.
Shamrock Rovers have been the more prolific side this season at 1.60 goals per game compared to 1.20 for the hosts. Shamrock Rovers have kept their defensive record in better shape, conceding 0.90 per game versus 1.60 for the hosts. Shamrock Rovers lead on clean sheets this season (12 vs 5). Penalty activity: Waterford 2/2 vs Shamrock Rovers 1/1 this season.
In-Play Profile
Waterford in-play tendencies (72 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Shamrock Rovers in-play tendencies (72 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Waterford 54% versus Shamrock Rovers 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waterford 56% | Shamrock Rovers 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waterford 0.94 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waterford attack 0.724 / defence 1.056 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.140 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.325 / away 1.013. Waterford's attack strength of 0.724 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 44 Waterford games / 44 Shamrock Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waterford 27% | Draw 33% | Shamrock Rovers 41%. Fair-value odds: Waterford 3.70 | Draw 3.03 | Shamrock Rovers 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shamrock Rovers at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shamrock Rovers offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. This conflicts with form data: Waterford 70% | Shamrock Rovers 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Regional Sports Centre • Kick-off: Friday 3 Apr 2026, 18:45 UTC • Managers: Waterford (J. Coleman) | Shamrock Rovers (S. Bradley) • Squad availability: no confirmed absences reported for either side • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (7 meetings): Waterford 1W | Draws 0 | Shamrock Rovers 6W • Goals trend: 2.86 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Waterford 7 – 13 Shamrock Rovers • H2H markets: BTTS 71% | Over 2.5 71% | Win rates: Waterford 14% / Draw 0% / Shamrock Rovers 86% • Historical edge: Shamrock Rovers dominant — 6W from 7 meetings (86% win rate) • H2H vs Poisson: both agree — Shamrock Rovers favoured. H2H win rate 86%, Poisson win probability 41% • Goals contradiction: H2H averages 2.86 goals/game (71% Over historically) but Poisson total xG is only 2.16 (63% Under probability) — current defensive form is likely suppressing the model vs historical scoring patterns • BTTS tension: H2H BTTS rate 71% but Poisson model rates BTTS at only 45% — current defensive form is suppressing the historical two-way scoring pattern
📈 Recent Form
• Waterford (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-D-W • Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-L • Waterford home split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | CS 2 • Shamrock Rovers away split: 1.50 PPG from 10 | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | CS 1 • Form edge: Shamrock Rovers lead by 0.60 PPG (1.40 vs 0.80) • xG vs form (Waterford): Poisson projects 0.94 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.40 — model is more cautious than form; the opposition's defensive strength is tempering the scoring expectation • xG vs form (Shamrock Rovers): Poisson xG of 1.22 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.20 — consistent corroboration • Under 2.5 corroborated — form projects ~1.9 total goals, Poisson xG sum 2.16 (63% Under 2.5 probability) • BTTS tension: form rates both sides above 60% BTTS but Poisson puts probability at only 45% — one or both defences are performing above their seasonal scoring average in this specific matchup • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on Shamrock Rovers — Shamrock Rovers at 41% Poisson win probability
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waterford 27% | Draw 33% | Shamrock Rovers 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Waterford 0.94 / Shamrock Rovers 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Waterford attack 0.724 / def 1.056 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.140 / def 0.983 | league avg home 1.325 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Waterford xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Shamrock Rovers xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers kick off?
Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers kicked off at 18:45 on Friday 3 April 2026 at Regional Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers?
Waterford 1 - 1 Shamrock Rovers.
Where is Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Regional Sports Centre.
What competition is Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers part of?
Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Waterford a 27% chance of winning, Shamrock Rovers a 41% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Waterford and Shamrock Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and Shamrock Rovers?
• Record (7 meetings): Waterford 1W | Draws 0 | Shamrock Rovers 6W • Goals trend: 2.86 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Waterford 7 – 13 Shamrock Rovers • H2H markets: BTTS 71% | Over 2.5 71% | Win rates: Waterford 14% / Draw 0% / Shamrock Rovers 86% • Historical edge: Shamrock Rovers dominant — 6W from 7 meetings (86% win rate) • H2H vs Poisson: both agree — Shamrock Rovers favoured. H2H win rate 86%, Poisson win probability 41% • Goals contradiction: H2H averages 2.86 goals/game (71% Over historically) but Poisson total xG is only 2.16 (63% Under probability) — current defensive form is likely suppressing the model vs historical scoring patterns • BTTS tension: H2H BTTS rate 71% but Poisson model rates BTTS at only 45% — current defensive form is suppressing the historical two-way scoring pattern
What form are Waterford and Shamrock Rovers in?
• Waterford (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-D-W • Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-L • Waterford home split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | CS 2 • Shamrock Rovers away split: 1.50 PPG from 10 | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | CS 1 • Form edge: Shamrock Rovers lead by 0.60 PPG (1.40 vs 0.80) • xG vs form (Waterford): Poisson projects 0.94 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.40 — model is more cautious than form; the opposition's defensive strength is tempering the scoring expectation • xG vs form (Shamrock Rovers): Poisson xG of 1.22 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.20 — consistent corroboration • Under 2.5 corroborated — form projects ~1.9 total goals, Poisson xG sum 2.16 (63% Under 2.5 probability) • BTTS tension: form rates both sides above 60% BTTS but Poisson puts probability at only 45% — one or both defences are performing above their seasonal scoring average in this specific matchup • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on Shamrock Rovers — Shamrock Rovers at 41% Poisson win probability
What do the betting odds say about Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture