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Poisson model rates Bohemians at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Drogheda United vs Bohemians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Bohemians make the trip to Weavers Park to face Drogheda United in Premier Division, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Friday 3 April 2026 at 18:45 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Drogheda United have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Drogheda United's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Weavers Park this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Weavers Park. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Drogheda United are significantly better at Weavers Park than their overall form suggests.

Bohemians's overall Premier Division record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling in Premier Division this season, Bohemians have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Drogheda United, 1.20 for Bohemians — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H History

The head-to-head record favours Drogheda United, who have won 4 of the last 7 meetings against Bohemians — a 2D 1W return for the visitors.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Jan 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The historical record gives Drogheda United a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Stats

Across 36 matches this season, Drogheda United have gone 12W 15D 9L. Attacking returns: 1.1 goals per game; defensive: 1.1 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 3-0 (H) / 1-3 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-4 (H) / 3-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 9 games this season. 14 clean sheets this season (8 at home, 6 away). Scored 2+ goals in 3 of 36 games (8%). Penalties this season: 3 scored / 0 missed from 3 awarded. Most used formation: 3-4-1-2. Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards per game.

Trading & In-Play

Drogheda United — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Bohemians — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Drogheda United 53% versus Bohemians 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Drogheda United 47% | Bohemians 42%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Drogheda United 0.69 xG and Bohemians 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Drogheda United attack 0.841 / defence 0.889 | Bohemians attack 1.079 / defence 0.622. League average goals — home 1.325 / away 1.013. Bohemians's defence strength of 0.622 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 44 Drogheda United games / 44 Bohemians games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Drogheda United 24% | Draw 37% | Bohemians 39%. Fair-value odds: Drogheda United 4.17 | Draw 2.70 | Bohemians 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.66. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.66 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Drogheda United's lower xG of 0.69 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Bohemians are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 37% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 1.66 combined xG gives a 23% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 33%. Form rates corroborate: Drogheda United 40% | Bohemians 50% BTTS from recent games.

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