Bohemians 1-2 Sligo Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bohemians at 47% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sligo Rovers make the trip to Dalymount Park to face Bohemians in Premier Division (matchday 11). The match kicks off on Friday 10 April 2026 at 19:45 UK time.
Current Form
Bohemians's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Bohemians have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Bohemians are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Sligo Rovers (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Sligo Rovers's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Bohemians against 1.50 for Sligo Rovers. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record in our data favours Bohemians, who have won 4 of the 7 H2H matches we hold against Sligo Rovers — Sligo Rovers have 1 win, with 2 draws.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 Feb 2026, ended Bohemians 4–0 Sligo Rovers — a Bohemians win.
The head-to-head data gives Bohemians an edge — 4 wins from 7 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading & In-Play
Bohemians — key trading statistics (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Sligo Rovers — key trading statistics (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 25 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 49% versus Sligo Rovers 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 42% | Sligo Rovers 50%). Note also that Sligo Rovers surrender HT leads in 36% of cases while Bohemians recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.31 xG and Sligo Rovers 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 0.872 / defence 0.910 | Sligo Rovers attack 0.781 / defence 1.063. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.061. Sligo Rovers's attack rating of 0.781 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.75. Data: built from Bohemians's last 46 games and Sligo Rovers's last 46.
Result probabilities: Bohemians 47% | Draw 35% | Sligo Rovers 18%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 2.14 | Draw 2.88 | Sligo Rovers 5.41. Bohemians hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians at 47% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Bohemians 4 wins from 7 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.06 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 58%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Bohemians 40% (last 10 home games) | Sligo Rovers 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 11 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Friday 10 April 2026 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 47% | Draw 35% | Sligo Rovers 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Bohemians 1.31 / Sligo Rovers 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 0.872 / def 0.910 | Sligo Rovers attack 0.781 / def 1.063 | league avg home 1.412 / away 1.061 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Sligo Rovers xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers FAQs
What time does Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers kick off?
Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Friday 10 April 2026 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers?
Bohemians 1 - 2 Sligo Rovers.
Where is Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers part of?
Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 11) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 47% chance of winning, Sligo Rovers a 18% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Bohemians and Sligo Rovers will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bohemians's attack rating (0.87) and Sligo Rovers's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sligo Rovers's attack (0.78x) against Bohemians's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.75.
These ratings are built from Bohemians's last 46 games and Sligo Rovers's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
47%
2.14
35%
2.88
18%
5.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Bohemians xG
Total xG
2.06
0.75
Sligo Rovers xG
2.14
47%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
5.41
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
22%
4.54
5%
20.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 9.6 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 12.5 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 8.2 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Bohemians and Sligo Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Bohemians and 0.75 for Sligo Rovers, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 72 outings, Bohemians have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 26W 18D 28L record — L-L-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Sligo Rovers's form line: 24W 18D 30L from 72 games, 1.25 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Bohemians against 1.25 for Sligo Rovers. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bohemians have posted 1.39 PPG from their last 36 home games (14W 8D 14L).
On the road, Sligo Rovers have gone 10W 8D 18L from their last 36 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bohemians are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Sligo Rovers are on 1.14 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Current Season
Sligo Rovers
Current Season
Bohemians (Home) vs Sligo Rovers (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bohemians
Current Season
Sligo Rovers
Current Season
❓ Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers Form FAQs
What form are Bohemians and Sligo Rovers in coming into this match?
Bohemians have gone 26W 18D 28L in their last 72 games (1.33 PPG), while Sligo Rovers have gone 24W 18D 30L in their last 72 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians at home or Sligo Rovers away?
Bohemians's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians at home: 1.39 PPG; Sligo Rovers away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to July 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 28 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Bohemians have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians won Sligo Rovers 0-4 Bohemians on 14 Feb 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Sligo Rovers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Bohemians
2
Draws
2
Sligo Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Sligo Rovers?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Bohemians have won 6, Sligo Rovers have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and Sligo Rovers last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 August 2026: Bohemians 3-0 Sligo Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians and Sligo Rovers?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Sligo Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 54% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 50%, Sligo Rovers 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Bohemians) and 64% (Sligo Rovers).
On the defensive side: Sligo Rovers in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / Sligo Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bohemians and Sligo Rovers matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Bohemians's recent matches and 47% of Sligo Rovers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bohemians and Sligo Rovers matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Bohemians's recent games and 64% of Sligo Rovers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians and Sligo Rovers matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Bohemians's recent matches and 78% of Sligo Rovers's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sligo Rovers defy the odds to beat Bohemians 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sligo Rovers beat Bohemians 1-2 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1.31 xG and Sligo Rovers 0.75 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Sligo Rovers outscored their 0.75 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 0.87 / defence 0.91 against Sligo Rovers attack 0.78 / defence 1.06, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 47% | Draw 35% | Sligo Rovers 18%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Sligo Rovers win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 42%, Sligo Rovers 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Sligo Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1.33 PPG, Sligo Rovers 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sligo Rovers win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.