Poisson model rates Bohemians at 65%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians vs Waterford fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 10 as Bohemians welcome Waterford to Dalymount Park. Kick-off is set for Monday 6 April 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, Bohemians have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bohemians's home record at Dalymount Park: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Premier Division appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Dalymount Park. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Bohemians are significantly better at Dalymount Park than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Waterford stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Premier Division matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Waterford's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Bohemians) versus 0.80 (Waterford). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Bohemians have won 4, Waterford 4, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Mar 2026, ended 1–0 with Bohemians winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Season Statistics
Bohemians's full-season record stands at 16W 6D 14L from 36 games. Attacking returns: 1.3 goals per game; defensive: 1.1 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 3-0 (H) / 1-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-2 (H) / 3-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 11 games this season. 13 clean sheets this season (8 at home, 5 away). Scored 2+ goals in 7 of 36 games (19%). Penalties this season: 5 scored / 0 missed from 5 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards per game.
The visitors have accumulated 12W 6D 19L from their 37 Premier Division appearances this term. Attacking returns: 1.2 goals per game; defensive: 1.6 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 2-0 (H) / 2-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-4 (H) / 7-2 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 4 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 7 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 11 games this season. 5 clean sheets this season (3 at home, 2 away). Scored 2+ goals in 2 of 37 games (5%). Penalties this season: 2 scored / 0 missed from 2 awarded. Most used formation: 4-3-1-2. Discipline: 2.8 yellow cards per game, 0.08 reds per game.
Bohemians have the superior defensive numbers, conceding 1.10 per game against Waterford's 1.60. Bohemians lead on clean sheets this season (13 vs 5). Penalty activity: Bohemians 5/5 vs Waterford 2/2 this season.
Trading Patterns
Bohemians in-play and half-time data (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Waterford in-play and half-time data (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 49% versus Waterford 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 42% | Waterford 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 2.33 xG and Waterford 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 0.983 / defence 0.929 | Waterford attack 1.082 / defence 1.717. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.034. Waterford bring a strong defensive rating of 1.717 — this is suppressing Bohemians's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Bohemians games / 45 Waterford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 65% | Draw 22% | Waterford 14%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1.54 | Draw 4.55 | Waterford 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Bohemians (65%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.33 / 1.04) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians at 65% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.37 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Bohemians 40% | Waterford 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs Waterford | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Monday 6 Apr 2026, 16:00 UTC • Managers: Bohemians (A. Reynolds) | Waterford (J. Coleman) • Squad availability: no confirmed absences reported for either side • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (9 meetings): Bohemians 4W | Draws 1 | Waterford 4W • Goals trend: 3.11 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Bohemians 16 – 12 Waterford • H2H markets: BTTS 78% | Over 2.5 78% | Win rates: Bohemians 44% / Draw 11% / Waterford 44% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 65% / draw 22% / away 14% • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 3.11 goals/game (78% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 3.37 (65% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS corroboration: H2H BTTS rate 78%, Poisson BTTS probability 60% — BTTS Yes supported by both historical and model data
📈 Recent Form
• Bohemians (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-W • Waterford (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-D-W • Bohemians home split: 1.70 PPG from 10 | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | CS 5 • Waterford away split: 0.80 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | CS 1 • Form edge: minimal separation (Bohemians 1.20 PPG vs Waterford 0.80 PPG) • xG vs form (Bohemians): Poisson projects 2.33 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.70 — model rates them higher than raw form suggests, likely reflecting a strong defence-adjusted attack strength • xG vs form (Waterford): Poisson xG of 1.04 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.10 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~2.1 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 3.37 (65% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~50% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 60% — no strong positional edge
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 65% | Draw 22% | Waterford 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 60% | xG Bohemians 2.33 / Waterford 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 0.983 / def 0.929 | Waterford attack 1.082 / def 1.717 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.034 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (65%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.33
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Waterford xG
60%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians vs Waterford kick off?
Bohemians vs Waterford kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 6 April 2026 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs Waterford?
Bohemians 1 - 1 Waterford.
Where is Bohemians vs Waterford being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs Waterford part of?
Bohemians vs Waterford is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs Waterford?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 65% chance of winning, Waterford a 14% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs Waterford?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Bohemians and Waterford will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians vs Waterford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Waterford?
• Record (9 meetings): Bohemians 4W | Draws 1 | Waterford 4W • Goals trend: 3.11 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Bohemians 16 – 12 Waterford • H2H markets: BTTS 78% | Over 2.5 78% | Win rates: Bohemians 44% / Draw 11% / Waterford 44% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 65% / draw 22% / away 14% • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 3.11 goals/game (78% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 3.37 (65% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS corroboration: H2H BTTS rate 78%, Poisson BTTS probability 60% — BTTS Yes supported by both historical and model data
What form are Bohemians and Waterford in?
• Bohemians (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-W • Waterford (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-D-W • Bohemians home split: 1.70 PPG from 10 | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | CS 5 • Waterford away split: 0.80 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | CS 1 • Form edge: minimal separation (Bohemians 1.20 PPG vs Waterford 0.80 PPG) • xG vs form (Bohemians): Poisson projects 2.33 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.70 — model rates them higher than raw form suggests, likely reflecting a strong defence-adjusted attack strength • xG vs form (Waterford): Poisson xG of 1.04 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.10 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~2.1 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 3.37 (65% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~50% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 60% — no strong positional edge
What do the betting odds say about Bohemians vs Waterford?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture