OFI 3-2 Levadiakos – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates OFI at 43%, yet in-form Levadiakos provide a compelling counter-argument — this OFI vs Levadiakos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

OFI welcome Levadiakos to Pankritio Stadium in Super League 1 (matchday 20). Kick-off is Sunday 8 February 2026 at 15:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, OFI stand at 5W 0D 5L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

OFI's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Levadiakos — last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Levadiakos's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across their last 10 road games (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form points away from home here. Levadiakos's 2.30 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of OFI's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for OFI, 2 for Levadiakos and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Sep 2025, ended OFI 0–4 Levadiakos — a Levadiakos win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

OFI in-play tendencies (last 50 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Levadiakos in-play tendencies (last 50 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 69%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 48% versus Levadiakos 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 64% | Levadiakos 60%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: OFI surrender their half-time lead 35% of the time, while Levadiakos have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 69% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.54 xG and Levadiakos 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 1.115 / defence 0.872 | Levadiakos attack 1.278 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 1.165. Levadiakos have an above-average attack rating of 1.278, which lifts their away xG to 1.30. Data: built from OFI's last 44 games and Levadiakos's last 45.

Result probabilities: OFI 43% | Draw 25% | Levadiakos 32%. Fair-value odds: OFI 2.33 | Draw 4.02 | Levadiakos 3.11. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates OFI as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Levadiakos (2.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on OFI offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (OFI's last 10 home games and Levadiakos's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: OFI 40% (last 10 home games) | Levadiakos 70% (last 10 away games).

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