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Poisson rates Levadiakos at 72% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis encounter.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Levadiakos and Asteras Tripolis meet at Levadia Stadium in Super League 1, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 1 February 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Current Form

Levadiakos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Levadiakos at Levadia Stadium this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Asteras Tripolis have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Asteras Tripolis, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Asteras Tripolis have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Form favours the hosts. Levadiakos's 2.30 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Asteras Tripolis's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Levadiakos, 1 for Asteras Tripolis and 4 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 6 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading & In-Play

Levadiakos — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

Asteras Tripolis — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 61% versus Asteras Tripolis 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levadiakos 59% | Asteras Tripolis 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 2.32 xG and Asteras Tripolis 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 1.564 / defence 1.038 | Asteras Tripolis attack 0.667 / defence 1.082. League average goals — home 1.370 / away 1.098. Levadiakos carry an above-average attack strength of 1.564 — their λ of 2.32 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 44 Levadiakos games / 43 Asteras Tripolis games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Levadiakos 72% | Draw 17% | Asteras Tripolis 11%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 1.39 | Draw 5.88 | Asteras Tripolis 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Levadiakos (72%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Levadiakos are the pick at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.08 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Levadiakos 60% | Asteras Tripolis 30% BTTS from recent games.

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