Kifisia 1-1 Larisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kifisia at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kifisia vs Larisa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Larisa travel to Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis to take on Kifisia. The game is scheduled for Saturday 10 January 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Kifisia have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kifisia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kifisia's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 3L across 7 games at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis this term (1.14 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Larisa — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Larisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Larisa's away record: 1W 2D 4L from 7 road trips in Super League 1 this season (0.71 PPG). Away from home they average 0.86 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game.
Kifisia are in the better shape of the two on current Super League 1 data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.10 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Kifisia have won 0, Larisa 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Kifisia in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Larisa in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kifisia 73% and Larisa 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kifisia 60% | Larisa 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kifisia 1.61 xG and Larisa 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kifisia attack 0.920 / defence 1.160 | Larisa attack 0.752 / defence 1.256. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.140. Larisa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.256 — this is suppressing Kifisia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Kifisia games / 15 Larisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kifisia 52% | Draw 25% | Larisa 23%. Fair-value odds: Kifisia 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Larisa 4.35. Kifisia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kifisia are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kifisia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Kifisia 57% | Larisa 43%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kifisia vs Larisa | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Jan 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kifisia 52% | Draw 25% | Larisa 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 50% | xG Kifisia 1.61 / Larisa 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Kifisia attack 0.920 / def 1.160 | Larisa attack 0.752 / def 1.256 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Kifisia (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Kifisia xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Larisa xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kifisia vs Larisa kick off?
Kifisia vs Larisa kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 10 January 2026 at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis.
What was the final score in Kifisia vs Larisa?
Kifisia 1 - 1 Larisa.
Where is Kifisia vs Larisa being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis.
What competition is Kifisia vs Larisa part of?
Kifisia vs Larisa is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Kifisia vs Larisa?
Our statistical model gives Kifisia a 52% chance of winning, Larisa a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Kifisia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kifisia vs Larisa?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Kifisia and Larisa will score (BTTS).
Will Kifisia vs Larisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kifisia and Larisa?
Record (1 meetings): Kifisia 0W | Draws 1 | Larisa 0W.
What form are Kifisia and Larisa in?
Kifisia (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-D-D. Larisa (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Kifisia's attack at 0.92x the league average against Larisa's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Larisa's attack versus Kifisia's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kifisia Win
52%
1.93
25%
4.02
23%
4.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Kifisia xG
Total xG
2.61
0.99
Larisa xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
4.29
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
20%
5.02
Win to Nil
19%
5.21
5%
21.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 11.8 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.5 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kifisia vs Larisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Kifisia and Larisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Kifisia and 0.99 for Larisa, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Kifisia vs Larisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kifisia come into this having played 15 games, going 4W 6D 5L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-D. The sample for Kifisia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Larisa sit at 0.60 PPG from 15 outings (1W 6D 8L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Larisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kifisia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Larisa — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Kifisia's home form reads 2W 2D 3L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Larisa have taken 0.71 points per game from 7 outings (1W 2D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kifisia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kifisia are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Larisa are on 0.87 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kifisia have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 15 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kifisia
Blended
Larisa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kifisia and Larisa in coming into this match?
Kifisia have gone 4W 6D 5L in their last 15 games (1.20 PPG), while Larisa have gone 1W 6D 8L in their last 15 (0.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kifisia at home or Larisa away?
Kifisia's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kifisia at home: 1.14 PPG; Larisa away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 21 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Kifisia's record when hosting Larisa specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Kifisia
3
Draws
0
Larisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kifisia and Larisa?
From 4 meetings on record, Kifisia have won 1, Larisa have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Kifisia and Larisa last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2026, when Kifisia 3-2 Larisa.
Who has won more matches between Kifisia and Larisa?
Kifisia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kifisia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Larisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kifisia 57%, Larisa 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Kifisia) and 57% (Larisa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kifisia have failed to score in 29% of games; Larisa in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kifisia home games / Larisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kifisia play Larisa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Kifisia's recent matches and 43% of Larisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kifisia vs Larisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Kifisia's matches and 57% of Larisa's.
Do Kifisia and Larisa tend to score early?
Kifisia have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Larisa in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kifisia and Larisa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kifisia and Larisa finished level at 1-1 at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis, Regular Season - 16, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kifisia 1.61 xG and Larisa 0.99 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kifisia attack 0.92 / defence 1.16 against Larisa attack 0.75 / defence 1.26, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kifisia 52% | Draw 25% | Larisa 23%, with Kifisia to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kifisia 60%, Larisa 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kifisia's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Larisa's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Kifisia arrived the stronger side — 1.20 PPG against 0.60. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.