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Poisson model rates Levadiakos at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Levadiakos vs Volos NFC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Volos NFC travel to Levadia Stadium to take on Levadiakos. The game is scheduled for Sunday 11 January 2026, 14:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Super League 1 games this season, Levadiakos have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W L D W W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Levadia Stadium, Levadiakos have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Volos NFC stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Volos NFC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Volos NFC away from home this season: 5W 0D 5L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Levadiakos 2.10 PPG, Volos NFC 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for Levadiakos, 3 for Volos NFC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 24 Nov 2025, ended 2–1 with Levadiakos winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Levadiakos in-play and half-time data (51 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).

Volos NFC in-play and half-time data (51 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 57% versus Volos NFC 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levadiakos 55% | Volos NFC 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 2.02 xG and Volos NFC 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 1.512 / defence 1.019 | Volos NFC attack 1.012 / defence 0.987. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.165. Levadiakos carry an above-average attack strength of 1.512 — their λ of 2.02 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 41 Levadiakos games / 41 Volos NFC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Levadiakos 56% | Draw 22% | Volos NFC 22%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 1.79 | Draw 4.55 | Volos NFC 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Levadiakos (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.02 / 1.20) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Levadiakos at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.22 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Levadiakos 60% | Volos NFC 40%.

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