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Poisson model rates Aris Thessalonikis at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Larisa vs Aris Thessalonikis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Aris Thessalonikis make the trip to AEL FC Arena to face Larisa in Super League 1, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Sunday 18 January 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

Form

Larisa (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Larisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Larisa's home record at AEL FC Arena: 0W 4D 4L from 8 Super League 1 appearances (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Aris Thessalonikis's overall Super League 1 record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Aris Thessalonikis's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Aris Thessalonikis are 0.50 PPG clear of Larisa in recent Super League 1 fixtures (1.10 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Larisa have seen both teams score in 62% of their games, Aris Thessalonikis in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Larisa 0W, Aris Thessalonikis 1W, 0D.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2025, ended 1–2 with Aris Thessalonikis winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Larisa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

Aris Thessalonikis goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Larisa 56% versus Aris Thessalonikis 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Larisa 44% | Aris Thessalonikis 31%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Larisa 0.93 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Larisa attack 0.711 / defence 1.312 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.917 / defence 0.916. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.121. Larisa's attack strength of 0.711 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 16 Larisa games / 42 Aris Thessalonikis games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Larisa 25% | Draw 29% | Aris Thessalonikis 46%. Fair-value odds: Larisa 4.00 | Draw 3.45 | Aris Thessalonikis 2.17. Aris Thessalonikis hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Aris Thessalonikis as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Larisa 62% | Aris Thessalonikis 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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