Panetolikos 0-3 PAOK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours PAOK (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Panetolikos face PAOK.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
PAOK make the trip to Panetolikos Stadium to face Panetolikos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Saturday 10 January 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Panetolikos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Panetolikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Panetolikos's home record at Panetolikos Stadium: 3W 0D 7L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
PAOK have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 8W 0D 2L. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for PAOK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAOK's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. PAOK are 1.30 PPG clear of Panetolikos in recent Super League 1 fixtures (2.40 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
PAOK hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 8 wins from 9 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
It is worth noting that PAOK have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 8 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Panetolikos — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
PAOK — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panetolikos 34% versus PAOK 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panetolikos 30% | PAOK 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panetolikos 1.32 xG and PAOK 2.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panetolikos attack 0.940 / defence 1.347 | PAOK attack 1.370 / defence 1.013. League average goals — home 1.386 / away 1.140. PAOK have an above-average attack strength of 1.370 — the away xG of 2.10 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 41 Panetolikos games / 41 PAOK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panetolikos 23% | Draw 22% | PAOK 55%. Fair-value odds: Panetolikos 4.35 | Draw 4.55 | PAOK 1.82. The model has a clear lean to PAOK (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.32 / 2.10) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, PAOK are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.42 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Panetolikos 30% | PAOK 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panetolikos vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Panetolikos Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Jan 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panetolikos 23% | Draw 22% | PAOK 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 65% | xG Panetolikos 1.32 / PAOK 2.10 • Poisson strength factors: Panetolikos attack 0.940 / def 1.347 | PAOK attack 1.370 / def 1.013 | league avg home 1.386 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: PAOK (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Panetolikos xG
Expected Goals
2.10
PAOK xG
65%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panetolikos vs PAOK kick off?
Panetolikos vs PAOK kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 10 January 2026 at Panetolikos Stadium.
What was the final score in Panetolikos vs PAOK?
Panetolikos 0 - 3 PAOK.
Where is Panetolikos vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at Panetolikos Stadium.
What competition is Panetolikos vs PAOK part of?
Panetolikos vs PAOK is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panetolikos vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives Panetolikos a 23% chance of winning, PAOK a 55% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panetolikos vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Panetolikos and PAOK will score (BTTS).
Will Panetolikos vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and PAOK?
Record (9 meetings): Panetolikos 0W | Draws 1 | PAOK 8W.
What form are Panetolikos and PAOK in?
Panetolikos (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. PAOK (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Panetolikos's attack rating (0.94) and PAOK's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — PAOK's attack (1.37x) against Panetolikos's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 2.10.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
23%
4.30
22%
4.60
55%
1.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
0 – 2
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Panetolikos xG
Total xG
3.42
2.10
PAOK xG
4.30
23%
Home win
4.60
22%
Draw
1.82
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
12%
8.21
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
3%
35.31
15%
6.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 6.9 | 7.2 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 9.0 | 9.5 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panetolikos vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Panetolikos and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Panetolikos and 2.10 for PAOK, a combined total of 3.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Panetolikos vs PAOK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 47 outings, Panetolikos have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 16W 11D 20L record — D-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Panetolikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PAOK's form line: 29W 6D 12L from 47 games, 1.98 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W. The sample for PAOK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, PAOK are the form team by 0.72 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Panetolikos.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Panetolikos have posted 1.13 PPG from 23 outings (8W 2D 13L).
On the road, PAOK have gone 13W 3D 7L from 23 away games — 1.83 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Panetolikos are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 1.98 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: PAOK in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panetolikos
Blended
PAOK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panetolikos and PAOK in coming into this match?
Panetolikos have gone 16W 11D 20L in their last 47 games (1.26 PPG), while PAOK have gone 29W 6D 12L in their last 47 (1.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panetolikos at home or PAOK away?
PAOK's away record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panetolikos at home: 1.13 PPG; PAOK away: 1.83 PPG.
Have Panetolikos or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panetolikos have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, PAOK in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 10 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PAOK won 0-3 on 10 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Panetolikos have gone 0W 0D 5L from 5 meetings on their own ground against PAOK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Panetolikos
1
Draws
9
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and PAOK?
From 10 meetings on record, Panetolikos have won 0, PAOK have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Panetolikos and PAOK last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2026, when Panetolikos 0-3 PAOK.
Who has won more matches between Panetolikos and PAOK?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panetolikos 30%, PAOK 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Panetolikos) and 74% (PAOK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 9% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Panetolikos keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Panetolikos have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panetolikos home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panetolikos play PAOK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Panetolikos's recent matches and 70% of PAOK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panetolikos vs PAOK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 39% of Panetolikos's matches and 74% of PAOK's.
Do Panetolikos and PAOK tend to score early?
Panetolikos have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, PAOK in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant PAOK run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Panetolikos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat Panetolikos 0-3 at Panetolikos Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panetolikos 1.32 xG and PAOK 2.10 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Panetolikos fell 1.3 short of their projected output. PAOK outscored their 2.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panetolikos attack 0.94 / defence 1.35 against PAOK attack 1.37 / defence 1.01, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panetolikos 23% | Draw 22% | PAOK 55%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panetolikos 30%, PAOK 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panetolikos's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
PAOK's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.26. Form held, and they took the win. Panetolikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PAOK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.09 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.