🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Atromitos at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Larisa vs Atromitos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Larisa host Atromitos at AEL FC Arena in Super League 1, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 21 December 2025 at 15:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Super League 1 games this season, Larisa have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Larisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at AEL FC Arena, Larisa have gone 0W 3D 4L this season (7 games, 0.43 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Atromitos — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Atromitos, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Atromitos's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Larisa at 0.50 PPG versus Atromitos's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Larisa have won 0, Atromitos 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Larisa in-play and half-time data (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Atromitos in-play and half-time data (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Larisa 57% versus Atromitos 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Larisa 50% | Atromitos 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Larisa 1.31 xG and Atromitos 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Larisa attack 0.792 / defence 1.439 | Atromitos attack 0.962 / defence 1.162. League average goals — home 1.426 / away 1.171. Larisa's attack strength of 0.792 is below the league average — the 1.31 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 14 Larisa games / 40 Atromitos games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Larisa 31% | Draw 24% | Atromitos 45%. Fair-value odds: Larisa 3.23 | Draw 4.17 | Atromitos 2.22. Atromitos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Atromitos as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atromitos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Larisa 71% | Atromitos 50% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights