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Poisson model favours AEK Athens FC (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Aris Thessalonikis face AEK Athens FC.

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Analysis

AEK Athens FC make the trip to Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium to face Aris Thessalonikis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Sunday 11 January 2026 at 17:30 UTC.

Current Form

Aris Thessalonikis's overall Super League 1 record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Aris Thessalonikis at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Aris Thessalonikis are significantly better at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium than their overall form suggests.

AEK Athens FC (all games): 8W 0D 2L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for AEK Athens FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, AEK Athens FC have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. AEK Athens FC are 1.40 PPG clear of Aris Thessalonikis in recent Super League 1 fixtures (2.40 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H Analysis

Across the last 9 meetings, AEK Athens FC have the stronger historical record — 7 wins to Aris Thessalonikis's 0, with 2 draws in the mix.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2025, ended 0–1 with AEK Athens FC winning.

It is worth noting that AEK Athens FC have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 7 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading Data

Aris Thessalonikis goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games).

AEK Athens FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 49% versus AEK Athens FC 34%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Aris Thessalonikis 34% | AEK Athens FC 40%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 0.90 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.787 / defence 0.835 | AEK Athens FC attack 1.407 / defence 0.815. League average goals — home 1.406 / away 1.150. Aris Thessalonikis's attack strength of 0.787 is below the league average — the 0.90 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. AEK Athens FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.407 — the away xG of 1.35 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 41 Aris Thessalonikis games / 41 AEK Athens FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 25% | Draw 29% | AEK Athens FC 47%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 4.00 | Draw 3.45 | AEK Athens FC 2.13. AEK Athens FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, AEK Athens FC are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AEK Athens FC if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Aris Thessalonikis 40% | AEK Athens FC 40% BTTS from recent games.

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