Asteras Tripolis 1-2 Atromitos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atromitos at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Asteras Tripolis face Atromitos.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Asteras Tripolis host Atromitos at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium in Super League 1 (matchday 22). Kick-off is Saturday 21 February 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Asteras Tripolis have gone 2W 2D 6L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Asteras Tripolis's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Atromitos stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Atromitos have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Asteras Tripolis at 0.80 PPG versus Atromitos's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 4 wins for Asteras Tripolis, 2 for Atromitos and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 30 Nov 2025, ended Asteras Tripolis 1–0 Atromitos — a Asteras Tripolis win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Asteras Tripolis in-play tendencies (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Atromitos in-play tendencies (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Asteras Tripolis 47% versus Atromitos 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Asteras Tripolis 47% | Atromitos 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Asteras Tripolis 1.11 xG and Atromitos 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.939 / defence 1.038 | Atromitos attack 0.994 / defence 0.881. League average goals — home 1.344 / away 1.152. Data: built from Asteras Tripolis's last 47 games and Atromitos's last 47.
Result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 33% | Draw 29% | Atromitos 37%. Fair-value odds: Asteras Tripolis 2.99 | Draw 3.40 | Atromitos 2.69. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atromitos are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atromitos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Asteras Tripolis 50% (last 10 home games) | Atromitos 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 22 | Venue: Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 February 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 33% | Draw 29% | Atromitos 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Asteras Tripolis 1.11 / Atromitos 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.939 / def 1.038 | Atromitos attack 0.994 / def 0.881 | league avg home 1.344 / away 1.152 • Poisson stance: Atromitos (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Asteras Tripolis xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Atromitos xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos FAQs
What time does Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos kick off?
Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 21 February 2026 at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium.
What was the final score in Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos?
Asteras Tripolis 1 - 2 Atromitos.
Where is Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos being played?
The match is being played at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium.
What competition is Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos part of?
Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 22) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos?
Our statistical model gives Asteras Tripolis a 33% chance of winning, Atromitos a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Atromitos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Asteras Tripolis and Atromitos will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Asteras Tripolis's attack rating (0.94) and Atromitos's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Atromitos's attack versus Asteras Tripolis's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Asteras Tripolis's last 47 games and Atromitos's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atromitos Win
33%
2.99
29%
3.40
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Asteras Tripolis xG
Total xG
2.30
1.19
Atromitos xG
2.99
33%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
30%
3.28
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
10%
9.82
12%
8.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 11.9 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.2 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.4 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Asteras Tripolis and Atromitos expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Asteras Tripolis and 1.19 for Atromitos, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Asteras Tripolis come into this having played 53 games, going 16W 12D 25L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Atromitos sit at 1.21 PPG from 53 outings (17W 13D 23L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Asteras Tripolis on 1.13 PPG, Atromitos on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Asteras Tripolis's home form reads 9W 6D 11L across their last 26 home games, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Atromitos have taken 1.65 points per game from their last 26 away games (13W 4D 9L). That's actually stronger than their 1.21 PPG overall record — Atromitos travel well.
The Goals Picture
Asteras Tripolis are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Atromitos are on 1.13 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Asteras Tripolis
Blended
Atromitos
Blended
Asteras Tripolis (Home) vs Atromitos (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Asteras Tripolis
Blended
Atromitos
Blended
❓ Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos Form FAQs
What form are Asteras Tripolis and Atromitos in coming into this match?
Asteras Tripolis have gone 16W 12D 25L in their last 53 games (1.13 PPG), while Atromitos have gone 17W 13D 23L in their last 53 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Asteras Tripolis at home or Atromitos away?
Atromitos's away record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Asteras Tripolis at home: 1.27 PPG; Atromitos away: 1.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2024. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was as recently as 10 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Asteras Tripolis have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 3 May 2025, when Atromitos won Asteras Tripolis 1-4 Atromitos.
Asteras Tripolis's record when hosting Atromitos specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Asteras Tripolis
0
Draws
4
Atromitos
Recent Meetings
❓ Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and Atromitos?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Asteras Tripolis have won 6, Atromitos have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Asteras Tripolis and Atromitos last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 October 2026: Asteras Tripolis 2-1 Atromitos.
Who has won more matches between Asteras Tripolis and Atromitos?
Asteras Tripolis have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Asteras Tripolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Asteras Tripolis 46%, Atromitos 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Asteras Tripolis) and 54% (Atromitos).
On the defensive side: Atromitos in 31%; Asteras Tripolis have failed to score in 27% of games; Atromitos in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Asteras Tripolis home games / Atromitos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Asteras Tripolis and Atromitos matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Asteras Tripolis's recent matches and 46% of Atromitos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Asteras Tripolis and Atromitos matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Asteras Tripolis's recent games and 54% of Atromitos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Asteras Tripolis and Atromitos matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Asteras Tripolis's recent matches and 77% of Atromitos's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Atromitos edge out Asteras Tripolis 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atromitos beat Asteras Tripolis 1-2 at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Asteras Tripolis 1.11 xG and Atromitos 1.19 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Atromitos outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Asteras Tripolis attack 0.94 / defence 1.04 against Atromitos attack 0.99 / defence 0.88, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Asteras Tripolis 33% | Draw 29% | Atromitos 37%, with Atromitos to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Asteras Tripolis 47%, Atromitos 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Atromitos's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Asteras Tripolis 1.13 PPG, Atromitos 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atromitos win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.