AEK Athens FC 1-1 Lamia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours AEK Athens FC (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as AEK Athens FC face Lamia.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 2 as AEK Athens FC welcome Lamia to OPAP Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 24 August 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
AEK Athens FC — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. AEK Athens FC have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at OPAP Arena, AEK Athens FC have gone 9W 1D 0L this season (10 games, 2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at OPAP Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — AEK Athens FC are significantly better at OPAP Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Lamia have recorded 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 3.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Lamia have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lamia away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
AEK Athens FC carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 0.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of AEK Athens FC: 8 wins from 8 previous clashes against 0 for Lamia, with 0 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 May 2024, ended 3–0 with AEK Athens FC winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both AEK Athens FC and goals. The home side's 8 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 2.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
AEK Athens FC in-play and half-time data (37 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Lamia in-play and half-time data (37 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AEK Athens FC 51% versus Lamia 62%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (AEK Athens FC 70% | Lamia 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AEK Athens FC 1.51 xG and Lamia 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AEK Athens FC attack 1.321 / defence 0.829 | Lamia attack 0.997 / defence 0.901. League average goals — home 1.265 / away 1.206. AEK Athens FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.321 — their λ of 1.51 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 27 AEK Athens FC games / 27 Lamia games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 48% | Draw 27% | Lamia 24%. Fair-value odds: AEK Athens FC 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Lamia 4.17. AEK Athens FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AEK Athens FC at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AEK Athens FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: AEK Athens FC 30% | Lamia 80%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (27 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AEK Athens FC vs Lamia | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: OPAP Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Aug 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 48% | Draw 27% | Lamia 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG AEK Athens FC 1.51 / Lamia 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: AEK Athens FC attack 1.321 / def 0.829 | Lamia attack 0.997 / def 0.901 | league avg home 1.265 / away 1.206 • Poisson stance: AEK Athens FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
AEK Athens FC xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Lamia xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AEK Athens FC vs Lamia kick off?
AEK Athens FC vs Lamia kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 24 August 2024 at OPAP Arena.
What was the final score in AEK Athens FC vs Lamia?
AEK Athens FC 1 - 1 Lamia.
Where is AEK Athens FC vs Lamia being played?
The match is being played at OPAP Arena.
What competition is AEK Athens FC vs Lamia part of?
AEK Athens FC vs Lamia is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win AEK Athens FC vs Lamia?
Our statistical model gives AEK Athens FC a 48% chance of winning, Lamia a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making AEK Athens FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in AEK Athens FC vs Lamia?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both AEK Athens FC and Lamia will score (BTTS).
Will AEK Athens FC vs Lamia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and Lamia?
Record (8 meetings): AEK Athens FC 8W | Draws 0 | Lamia 0W.
What form are AEK Athens FC and Lamia in?
AEK Athens FC (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Lamia (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 3.10 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from AEK Athens FC's attack rating (1.32) and Lamia's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lamia's attack versus AEK Athens FC's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (27/27 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AEK Athens FC Win
48%
2.07
27%
3.68
24%
4.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
AEK Athens FC xG
Total xG
2.50
1.00
Lamia xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
4.09
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
22%
4.51
Win to Nil
18%
5.60
5%
18.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.3 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AEK Athens FC vs Lamia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are AEK Athens FC and Lamia expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for AEK Athens FC and 1.00 for Lamia, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for AEK Athens FC vs Lamia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
AEK Athens FC's recent record stands at 24W 9D 4L from 37 games, a 2.19 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for AEK Athens FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lamia, meanwhile, have gone 10W 8D 19L across 37 games — 1.03 PPG, with D-L-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Lamia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours AEK Athens FC by 1.16 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lamia heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, AEK Athens FC have managed 15W 4D 0L from 19 games — 2.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lamia's away record stands at 4W 5D 10L across 19 trips, a 0.89 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AEK Athens FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
AEK Athens FC are averaging 2.24 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Lamia are on 1.19 scored and 2.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lamia in 62%.
Defensively: AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AEK Athens FC
Early Season
Lamia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AEK Athens FC and Lamia in coming into this match?
AEK Athens FC have gone 24W 9D 4L in their last 37 games (2.19 PPG), while Lamia have gone 10W 8D 19L in their last 37 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AEK Athens FC at home or Lamia away?
AEK Athens FC's home record (2.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AEK Athens FC at home: 2.58 PPG; Lamia away: 0.89 PPG.
Have AEK Athens FC or Lamia been keeping clean sheets recently?
AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Lamia in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AEK Athens FC and Lamia runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 December 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Mar 2024, when AEK Athens FC won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AEK Athens FC's record when hosting Lamia specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
9
AEK Athens FC
1
Draws
0
Lamia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and Lamia?
From 10 meetings on record, AEK Athens FC have won 9, Lamia have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AEK Athens FC and Lamia last play each other?
They last met on 14 December 2024, when Lamia 0-1 AEK Athens FC.
Who has won more matches between AEK Athens FC and Lamia?
AEK Athens FC have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 68% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AEK Athens FC 37%, Lamia 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for AEK Athens FC and 74% for Lamia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AEK Athens FC keep a clean sheet in 63% of their matches; Lamia in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AEK Athens FC home games / Lamia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AEK Athens FC play Lamia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of AEK Athens FC's recent matches and 63% of Lamia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AEK Athens FC vs Lamia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of AEK Athens FC's matches and 74% of Lamia's.
Do AEK Athens FC and Lamia tend to score early?
AEK Athens FC have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Lamia in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AEK Athens FC and Lamia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AEK Athens FC and Lamia finished level at 1-1 at OPAP Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AEK Athens FC 1.51 xG and Lamia 1.00 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AEK Athens FC attack 1.32 / defence 0.83 against Lamia attack 1.00 / defence 0.90, drawn from 27/27 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it AEK Athens FC 48% | Draw 27% | Lamia 24%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AEK Athens FC 70%, Lamia 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (37 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Lamia's trading profile (37 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, AEK Athens FC arrived the stronger side — 2.19 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.42 scoring average — below par going forward. Lamia (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.16 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.