Lamia 0-3 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Olympiakos Piraeus (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Lamia face Olympiakos Piraeus.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Olympiakos Piraeus travel to Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias to take on Lamia. The game is scheduled for Saturday 31 August 2024, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lamia stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.90 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Lamia have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lamia's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 games at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Olympiakos Piraeus — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Olympiakos Piraeus have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Olympiakos Piraeus have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Olympiakos Piraeus — 1.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.30 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Lamia register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The previous 8 encounters between these sides heavily favour Olympiakos Piraeus, who boast 7 victories compared to 1 for Lamia.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Apr 2024, ended 1–4 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Olympiakos Piraeus have won 7 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Lamia trading profile (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Olympiakos Piraeus trading profile (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamia 63% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Lamia 68% | Olympiakos Piraeus 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamia 1.04 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamia attack 1.028 / defence 1.051 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.149 / defence 0.841. League average goals — home 1.200 / away 1.107. Data: 28 Lamia games / 28 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Lamia 29% | Draw 27% | Olympiakos Piraeus 44%. Fair-value odds: Lamia 3.45 | Draw 3.70 | Olympiakos Piraeus 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Olympiakos Piraeus at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Lamia 60% | Olympiakos Piraeus 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (28 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Aug 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamia 29% | Draw 27% | Olympiakos Piraeus 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Lamia 1.04 / Olympiakos Piraeus 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Lamia attack 1.028 / def 1.051 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.149 / def 0.841 | league avg home 1.200 / away 1.107 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Lamia xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 31 August 2024 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What was the final score in Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Lamia 0 - 3 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What competition is Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives Lamia a 29% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 44% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Lamia and Olympiakos Piraeus will score (BTTS).
Will Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Record (8 meetings): Lamia 1W | Draws 0 | Olympiakos Piraeus 7W.
What form are Lamia and Olympiakos Piraeus in?
Lamia (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Lamia's attack rating (1.03) and Olympiakos Piraeus's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Olympiakos Piraeus's attack versus Lamia's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (28/28 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 0-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
29%
3.44
27%
3.64
44%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Lamia xG
Total xG
2.37
1.34
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
3.44
29%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.30
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
8%
13.10
15%
6.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 12.4 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.7 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Lamia and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Lamia and 1.34 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 38 outings, Lamia have picked up 1.03 PPG on a 10W 9D 19L record — L-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Lamia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Olympiakos Piraeus's form line: 25W 6D 7L from 38 games, 2.13 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Olympiakos Piraeus are the form team by 1.10 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lamia.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Lamia have posted 1.17 PPG from 18 outings (6W 3D 9L).
On the road, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 10W 4D 4L from 18 away games — 1.89 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lamia are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 2.11 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 2.18 scored and 0.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lamia have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamia
Early Season
Olympiakos Piraeus
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamia and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
Lamia have gone 10W 9D 19L in their last 38 games (1.03 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 25W 6D 7L in their last 38 (2.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamia at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamia at home: 1.17 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 1.89 PPG.
Have Lamia or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lamia have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lamia and Olympiakos Piraeus runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 December 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Olympiakos Piraeus have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Sep 2023, when Olympiakos Piraeus won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lamia's record when hosting Olympiakos Piraeus specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Lamia
0
Draws
9
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Olympiakos Piraeus?
From 10 meetings on record, Lamia have won 1, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 9, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lamia and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
They last met on 21 December 2024, when Olympiakos Piraeus 1-0 Lamia.
Who has won more matches between Lamia and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamia 61%, Olympiakos Piraeus 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Lamia) and 44% (Olympiakos Piraeus). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus in 33%; Olympiakos Piraeus in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamia home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamia play Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Lamia's recent matches and 44% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Lamia's matches and 44% of Olympiakos Piraeus's.
Do Lamia and Olympiakos Piraeus tend to score early?
Lamia have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Olympiakos Piraeus run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Lamia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat Lamia 0-3 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Regular Season - 3, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamia 1.04 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.34 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Lamia fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Olympiakos Piraeus outscored their 1.34 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamia attack 1.03 / defence 1.05 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.15 / defence 0.84, drawn from 28/28 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Lamia 29% | Draw 27% | Olympiakos Piraeus 44%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamia 68%, Olympiakos Piraeus 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamia's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 1.03. Form held, and they took the win. Lamia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.72 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.