AEK Athens FC 3-0 OFI – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AEK Athens FC at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AEK Athens FC vs OFI encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
AEK Athens FC host OFI at OPAP Arena in Super League 1, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 18 August 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
AEK Athens FC — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. AEK Athens FC haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at OPAP Arena, AEK Athens FC have gone 8W 2D 0L this season (10 games, 2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at OPAP Arena. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — AEK Athens FC are significantly better at OPAP Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, OFI have recorded 2W 6D 2L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. OFI haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, OFI have gone 0W 5D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, AEK Athens FC have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for AEK Athens FC, 2 for OFI and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Jan 2024, ended 3–0 with AEK Athens FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
AEK Athens FC trading profile (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
OFI trading profile (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AEK Athens FC 48% versus OFI 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AEK Athens FC 73% | OFI 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AEK Athens FC 1.81 xG and OFI 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AEK Athens FC attack 1.175 / defence 0.948 | OFI attack 0.922 / defence 1.130. League average goals — home 1.364 / away 1.310. Data: 26 AEK Athens FC games / 26 OFI games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 51% | Draw 27% | OFI 22%. Fair-value odds: AEK Athens FC 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | OFI 4.55. AEK Athens FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AEK Athens FC as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AEK Athens FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: AEK Athens FC 40% | OFI 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (26 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AEK Athens FC vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: OPAP Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Aug 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 51% | Draw 27% | OFI 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG AEK Athens FC 1.81 / OFI 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: AEK Athens FC attack 1.175 / def 0.948 | OFI attack 0.922 / def 1.130 | league avg home 1.364 / away 1.310 • Poisson stance: AEK Athens FC (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
AEK Athens FC xG
Expected Goals
1.15
OFI xG
59%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AEK Athens FC vs OFI kick off?
AEK Athens FC vs OFI kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 18 August 2024 at OPAP Arena.
What was the final score in AEK Athens FC vs OFI?
AEK Athens FC 3 - 0 OFI.
Where is AEK Athens FC vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at OPAP Arena.
What competition is AEK Athens FC vs OFI part of?
AEK Athens FC vs OFI is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win AEK Athens FC vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives AEK Athens FC a 51% chance of winning, OFI a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making AEK Athens FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in AEK Athens FC vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both AEK Athens FC and OFI will score (BTTS).
Will AEK Athens FC vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and OFI?
Record (6 meetings): AEK Athens FC 3W | Draws 1 | OFI 2W.
What form are AEK Athens FC and OFI in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. AEK Athens FC (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from AEK Athens FC's attack rating (1.18) and OFI's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.81 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, OFI's attack versus AEK Athens FC's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AEK Athens FC Win
51%
1.97
27%
3.67
22%
4.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
AEK Athens FC xG
Total xG
2.96
1.15
OFI xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
4.57
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
16%
6.12
Win to Nil
16%
6.18
4%
27.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 10.8 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AEK Athens FC vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are AEK Athens FC and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for AEK Athens FC and 1.15 for OFI, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for AEK Athens FC vs OFI?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
AEK Athens FC's recent record stands at 22W 7D 4L from 33 games, a 2.21 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-W in the last five. AEK Athens FC haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
OFI, meanwhile, have gone 7W 14D 12L across 33 games — 1.06 PPG, with W-D-W-D-L in their last five. OFI haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours AEK Athens FC by 1.15 — a real, if not enormous, edge over OFI heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, AEK Athens FC have managed 14W 2D 0L from 16 games — 2.75 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.21 PPG overall — AEK Athens FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
OFI's away record stands at 0W 8D 8L across 16 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.06 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of OFI's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AEK Athens FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
AEK Athens FC are averaging 2.27 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.09 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Defensively: AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AEK Athens FC
Pre-Season
OFI
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AEK Athens FC and OFI in coming into this match?
AEK Athens FC have gone 22W 7D 4L in their last 33 games (2.21 PPG), while OFI have gone 7W 14D 12L in their last 33 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AEK Athens FC at home or OFI away?
AEK Athens FC's home record (2.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AEK Athens FC at home: 2.75 PPG; OFI away: 0.50 PPG.
Have AEK Athens FC or OFI been keeping clean sheets recently?
AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, OFI in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AEK Athens FC and OFI runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 21 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
AEK Athens FC go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Nov 2022, when AEK Athens FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AEK Athens FC's record when hosting OFI specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
AEK Athens FC
1
Draws
2
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and OFI?
From 10 meetings on record, AEK Athens FC have won 7, OFI have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AEK Athens FC and OFI last play each other?
They last met on 21 December 2025, when AEK Athens FC 2-1 OFI.
Who has won more matches between AEK Athens FC and OFI?
AEK Athens FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AEK Athens FC 31%, OFI 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for AEK Athens FC and 62% for OFI. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AEK Athens FC keep a clean sheet in 69% of their matches; OFI in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AEK Athens FC home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AEK Athens FC play OFI?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of AEK Athens FC's recent matches and 50% of OFI's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AEK Athens FC vs OFI usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of AEK Athens FC's matches and 62% of OFI's.
Do AEK Athens FC and OFI tend to score early?
AEK Athens FC have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, OFI in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant AEK Athens FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of OFI.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AEK Athens FC beat OFI 3-0 at OPAP Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AEK Athens FC 1.81 xG and OFI 1.15 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. AEK Athens FC beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. OFI landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AEK Athens FC attack 1.18 / defence 0.95 against OFI attack 0.92 / defence 1.13, drawn from 26/26 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it AEK Athens FC 51% | Draw 27% | OFI 22%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AEK Athens FC 73%, OFI 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
OFI's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, AEK Athens FC arrived the stronger side — 2.21 PPG against 1.06. Form held, and they took the win. OFI (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.