Panathinaikos 1-0 Levadiakos – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Panathinaikos at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Panathinaikos vs Levadiakos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Panathinaikos and Levadiakos meet at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 25 August 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Panathinaikos have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Panathinaikos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis, Panathinaikos have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Levadiakos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 0W 1D 0L from 1 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Levadiakos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Panathinaikos, 1.00 for Levadiakos — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Panathinaikos 2W, Levadiakos 0W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Jan 2023, ended 1–0 with Panathinaikos winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panathinaikos 1.31 xG and Levadiakos 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panathinaikos attack 0.962 / defence 0.928 | Levadiakos attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.188 / away 1.142. Data: 27 Panathinaikos games / 1 Levadiakos games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Panathinaikos 46% | Draw 29% | Levadiakos 25%. Fair-value odds: Panathinaikos 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Levadiakos 4.00. Panathinaikos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Panathinaikos as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Panathinaikos if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.22 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panathinaikos vs Levadiakos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Aug 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panathinaikos 46% | Draw 29% | Levadiakos 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Panathinaikos 1.31 / Levadiakos 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Panathinaikos attack 0.962 / def 0.928 | Levadiakos attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.188 / away 1.142 • Poisson stance: Panathinaikos (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Panathinaikos xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Levadiakos xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panathinaikos vs Levadiakos kick off?
Panathinaikos vs Levadiakos kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 25 August 2024 at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis.
What was the final score in Panathinaikos vs Levadiakos?
Panathinaikos 1 - 0 Levadiakos.
Where is Panathinaikos vs Levadiakos being played?
The match is being played at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis.
What competition is Panathinaikos vs Levadiakos part of?
Panathinaikos vs Levadiakos is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panathinaikos vs Levadiakos?
Our statistical model gives Panathinaikos a 46% chance of winning, Levadiakos a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Panathinaikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panathinaikos vs Levadiakos?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Panathinaikos and Levadiakos will score (BTTS).
Will Panathinaikos vs Levadiakos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panathinaikos and Levadiakos?
Record (2 meetings): Panathinaikos 2W | Draws 0 | Levadiakos 0W.
What form are Panathinaikos and Levadiakos in?
Panathinaikos (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Levadiakos (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Panathinaikos's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Levadiakos's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. Flip it around — Levadiakos's attack (0.85x) against Panathinaikos's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
The sample (27/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.7%), 0-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panathinaikos Win
46%
2.19
29%
3.39
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Panathinaikos xG
Total xG
2.22
0.90
Levadiakos xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
19%
5.40
7%
14.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 12.9 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panathinaikos vs Levadiakos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Panathinaikos and Levadiakos expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Panathinaikos and 0.90 for Levadiakos, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Panathinaikos vs Levadiakos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Panathinaikos come into this having played 1 games, going 0W 0D 1L for 0.00 points per game. Their last five reads L. It's still early in the season for Panathinaikos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Levadiakos sit at 1.00 PPG from 1 outings (0W 1D 0L), a run that reads D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Levadiakos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Levadiakos carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Panathinaikos — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Panathinaikos are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Levadiakos are on 0.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Panathinaikos have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Levadiakos in 0%.
Defensively: Levadiakos in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panathinaikos
Early Season
Levadiakos
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panathinaikos and Levadiakos in coming into this match?
Panathinaikos have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Levadiakos have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 (1.00 PPG).
Have Panathinaikos or Levadiakos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Levadiakos in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Panathinaikos won 1-4 on 8 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Panathinaikos have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Levadiakos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Panathinaikos
1
Draws
0
Levadiakos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panathinaikos and Levadiakos?
From 6 meetings on record, Panathinaikos have won 5, Levadiakos have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Panathinaikos and Levadiakos last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Levadiakos 1-4 Panathinaikos.
Who has won more matches between Panathinaikos and Levadiakos?
Panathinaikos have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panathinaikos home games / Levadiakos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panathinaikos play Levadiakos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Panathinaikos's recent matches and 0% of Levadiakos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panathinaikos vs Levadiakos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Panathinaikos's recent games and 0% of Levadiakos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panathinaikos and Levadiakos tend to score early?
Panathinaikos have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Levadiakos in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Panathinaikos edge out Levadiakos 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panathinaikos beat Levadiakos 1-0 at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panathinaikos 1.31 xG and Levadiakos 0.90 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Levadiakos landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panathinaikos attack 0.96 / defence 0.93 against Levadiakos attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 27/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Panathinaikos 46% | Draw 29% | Levadiakos 25%, with Panathinaikos to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panathinaikos 0%, Levadiakos 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Levadiakos arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Panathinaikos winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Panathinaikos scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Levadiakos shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.