Asteras Tripolis 0-1 Volos NFC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Asteras Tripolis at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Asteras Tripolis vs Volos NFC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Volos NFC travel to Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis to take on Asteras Tripolis. The game is scheduled for Sunday 25 August 2024, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Asteras Tripolis stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Asteras Tripolis have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Asteras Tripolis's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Volos NFC have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Volos NFC have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Volos NFC's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Volos NFC are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Asteras Tripolis have won 3, Volos NFC 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Mar 2024, ended 0–2 with Volos NFC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Asteras Tripolis in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Volos NFC in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Asteras Tripolis 50% versus Volos NFC 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Asteras Tripolis 56% | Volos NFC 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Asteras Tripolis 1.45 xG and Volos NFC 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Asteras Tripolis attack 1.069 / defence 1.068 | Volos NFC attack 0.920 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 1.246 / away 1.206. Data: 27 Asteras Tripolis games / 27 Volos NFC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 41% | Draw 30% | Volos NFC 29%. Fair-value odds: Asteras Tripolis 2.44 | Draw 3.33 | Volos NFC 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Asteras Tripolis dominate the H2H record, yet Volos NFC are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Asteras Tripolis at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Volos NFC (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Asteras Tripolis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Asteras Tripolis 70% | Volos NFC 30%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (27 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Asteras Tripolis vs Volos NFC | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Aug 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 41% | Draw 30% | Volos NFC 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG Asteras Tripolis 1.45 / Volos NFC 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Asteras Tripolis attack 1.069 / def 1.068 | Volos NFC attack 0.920 / def 1.088 | league avg home 1.246 / away 1.206 • Poisson stance: Asteras Tripolis (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Asteras Tripolis xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Volos NFC xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Asteras Tripolis vs Volos NFC kick off?
Asteras Tripolis vs Volos NFC kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 25 August 2024 at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis.
What was the final score in Asteras Tripolis vs Volos NFC?
Asteras Tripolis 0 - 1 Volos NFC.
Where is Asteras Tripolis vs Volos NFC being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis.
What competition is Asteras Tripolis vs Volos NFC part of?
Asteras Tripolis vs Volos NFC is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Asteras Tripolis vs Volos NFC?
Our statistical model gives Asteras Tripolis a 41% chance of winning, Volos NFC a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Asteras Tripolis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Asteras Tripolis vs Volos NFC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Asteras Tripolis and Volos NFC will score (BTTS).
Will Asteras Tripolis vs Volos NFC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and Volos NFC?
Record (6 meetings): Asteras Tripolis 3W | Draws 2 | Volos NFC 1W.
What form are Asteras Tripolis and Volos NFC in?
Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. Volos NFC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Asteras Tripolis's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Volos NFC's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. The same calculation in reverse, Volos NFC's attack versus Asteras Tripolis's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (27/27 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Asteras Tripolis Win
41%
2.43
30%
3.33
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Asteras Tripolis xG
Total xG
2.63
1.19
Volos NFC xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
23%
4.26
Win to Nil
13%
7.95
7%
14.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.3 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.9 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Asteras Tripolis vs Volos NFC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Asteras Tripolis and Volos NFC expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Asteras Tripolis and 1.19 for Volos NFC, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Asteras Tripolis vs Volos NFC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 34 outings, Asteras Tripolis have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 12W 5D 17L record — W-L-D-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Asteras Tripolis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Volos NFC's form line: 8W 9D 17L from 34 games, 0.97 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Volos NFC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Asteras Tripolis on 1.21 PPG, Volos NFC on 0.97. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Asteras Tripolis have posted 1.12 PPG from 17 outings (5W 4D 8L).
On the road, Volos NFC have gone 3W 5D 9L from 17 away games — 0.82 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Asteras Tripolis are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Volos NFC are on 1.06 scored and 1.76 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Asteras Tripolis
Early Season
Volos NFC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Asteras Tripolis and Volos NFC in coming into this match?
Asteras Tripolis have gone 12W 5D 17L in their last 34 games (1.21 PPG), while Volos NFC have gone 8W 9D 17L in their last 34 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Asteras Tripolis at home or Volos NFC away?
Asteras Tripolis's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Asteras Tripolis at home: 1.12 PPG; Volos NFC away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Asteras Tripolis's record when hosting Volos NFC specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Asteras Tripolis
2
Draws
4
Volos NFC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and Volos NFC?
From 10 meetings on record, Asteras Tripolis have won 4, Volos NFC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Asteras Tripolis and Volos NFC last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Asteras Tripolis 2-0 Volos NFC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Asteras Tripolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Asteras Tripolis 53%, Volos NFC 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Asteras Tripolis) and 47% (Volos NFC).
On the defensive side: Asteras Tripolis have failed to score in 29% of games; Volos NFC in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Asteras Tripolis home games / Volos NFC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Asteras Tripolis play Volos NFC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Asteras Tripolis's recent matches and 41% of Volos NFC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Asteras Tripolis vs Volos NFC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Asteras Tripolis's recent games and 47% of Volos NFC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Asteras Tripolis and Volos NFC tend to score early?
Asteras Tripolis have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Volos NFC in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Volos NFC defy the odds to beat Asteras Tripolis 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Volos NFC beat Asteras Tripolis 0-1 at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Asteras Tripolis 1.45 xG and Volos NFC 1.19 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Asteras Tripolis fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Asteras Tripolis attack 1.07 / defence 1.07 against Volos NFC attack 0.92 / defence 1.09, drawn from 27/27 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Asteras Tripolis 41% | Draw 30% | Volos NFC 29%, with Asteras Tripolis to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Volos NFC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Asteras Tripolis 56%, Volos NFC 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Volos NFC's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Asteras Tripolis 1.21 PPG, Volos NFC 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Volos NFC win broke the near-deadlock. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line. Volos NFC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.