Panetolikos 0-1 Lamia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Panetolikos at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Panetolikos vs Lamia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Lamia travel to Stadio Panetolikou to take on Panetolikos. The game is scheduled for Monday 19 August 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Panetolikos have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Panetolikos haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Panetolikos have posted 4W 1D 5L at Stadio Panetolikou — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Lamia — All Games: 0W 1D 9L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 0.10 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 3.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Lamia haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Lamia's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 exceeds their overall 0.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Panetolikos carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The previous 6 encounters between these sides heavily favour Lamia, who boast 4 victories compared to 1 for Panetolikos.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Jan 2024, ended 1–2 with Lamia winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Lamia have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Panetolikos in-play and half-time data (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Lamia in-play and half-time data (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panetolikos 48% versus Lamia 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panetolikos 54% | Lamia 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panetolikos 1.47 xG and Lamia 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panetolikos attack 0.991 / defence 1.063 | Lamia attack 1.034 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.421 / away 1.244. Data: 26 Panetolikos games / 26 Lamia games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Panetolikos 38% | Draw 30% | Lamia 33%. Fair-value odds: Panetolikos 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | Lamia 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.47 / 1.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Lamia lead the H2H ledger, but Panetolikos carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Panetolikos as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Panetolikos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Panetolikos 50% | Lamia 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (26 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panetolikos vs Lamia | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadio Panetolikou • Kick-off: Monday 19 Aug 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panetolikos 38% | Draw 30% | Lamia 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 60% | xG Panetolikos 1.47 / Lamia 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Panetolikos attack 0.991 / def 1.063 | Lamia attack 1.034 / def 1.046 | league avg home 1.421 / away 1.244 • Poisson stance: Panetolikos (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Panetolikos xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Lamia xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panetolikos vs Lamia kick off?
Panetolikos vs Lamia kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 19 August 2024 at Stadio Panetolikou.
What was the final score in Panetolikos vs Lamia?
Panetolikos 0 - 1 Lamia.
Where is Panetolikos vs Lamia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Panetolikou.
What competition is Panetolikos vs Lamia part of?
Panetolikos vs Lamia is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panetolikos vs Lamia?
Our statistical model gives Panetolikos a 38% chance of winning, Lamia a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Panetolikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panetolikos vs Lamia?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Panetolikos and Lamia will score (BTTS).
Will Panetolikos vs Lamia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Lamia?
Record (6 meetings): Panetolikos 1W | Draws 1 | Lamia 4W.
What form are Panetolikos and Lamia in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Panetolikos (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Panetolikos's attack at 0.99x the league average against Lamia's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lamia's attack versus Panetolikos's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panetolikos Win
38%
2.66
30%
3.37
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Panetolikos xG
Total xG
2.84
1.37
Lamia xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
26%
3.92
23%
4.36
Win to Nil
10%
10.43
8%
13.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.0 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.8 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.7 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panetolikos vs Lamia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Panetolikos and Lamia expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Panetolikos and 1.37 for Lamia, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Panetolikos vs Lamia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Panetolikos come into this having played 33 games, going 9W 9D 15L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-W. Panetolikos haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Lamia sit at 0.94 PPG from 33 outings (8W 7D 18L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-L across their last five. Lamia haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Panetolikos on 1.09 PPG, Lamia on 0.94. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Panetolikos's home form reads 6W 3D 7L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.31 PPG return.
Away from home, Lamia have taken 0.81 points per game from 16 outings (3W 4D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Panetolikos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Panetolikos are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Lamia are on 1.21 scored and 2.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lamia in 67%.
Last 33 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panetolikos
Pre-Season
Lamia
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panetolikos and Lamia in coming into this match?
Panetolikos have gone 9W 9D 15L in their last 33 games (1.09 PPG), while Lamia have gone 8W 7D 18L in their last 33 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panetolikos at home or Lamia away?
Panetolikos's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panetolikos at home: 1.31 PPG; Lamia away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Panetolikos have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Panetolikos's record when hosting Lamia specifically: 1W 1D 4L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Panetolikos
1
Draws
5
Lamia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Lamia?
From 10 meetings on record, Panetolikos have won 4, Lamia have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Panetolikos and Lamia last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2025, when Lamia 1-3 Panetolikos.
Who has won more matches between Panetolikos and Lamia?
Lamia have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panetolikos 38%, Lamia 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Panetolikos and 75% for Lamia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Panetolikos keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Panetolikos have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panetolikos home games / Lamia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panetolikos play Lamia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Panetolikos's recent matches and 69% of Lamia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panetolikos vs Lamia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Panetolikos's matches and 75% of Lamia's.
Do Panetolikos and Lamia tend to score early?
Panetolikos have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Lamia in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lamia defy the odds to beat Panetolikos 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamia beat Panetolikos 0-1 at Stadio Panetolikou, Regular Season - 1, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panetolikos 1.47 xG and Lamia 1.37 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Panetolikos fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panetolikos attack 0.99 / defence 1.06 against Lamia attack 1.03 / defence 1.05, drawn from 26/26 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panetolikos 38% | Draw 30% | Lamia 33%, with Panetolikos to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Lamia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panetolikos 54%, Lamia 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panetolikos's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lamia's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Panetolikos 1.09 PPG, Lamia 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lamia win broke the near-deadlock. Panetolikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward. Lamia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.