Werder Bremen 2-1 VfB Stuttgart – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates VfB Stuttgart at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Werder Bremen vs VfB Stuttgart encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

VfB Stuttgart make the trip to wohninvest WESERSTADION to face Werder Bremen in Bundesliga (matchday 30). The match kicks off on Sunday 21 April 2024 at 15:30 UK time.

Form

Werder Bremen (all games): 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Werder Bremen at home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

VfB Stuttgart have collected 2.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, VfB Stuttgart have gone 6W 0D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

On a straight form reading, VfB Stuttgart are the stronger side — 1.80 PPG clear of the hosts (2.60 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, VfB Stuttgart edge it 2 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 2 Dec 2023, ended Werder Bremen 0–2 VfB Stuttgart — a VfB Stuttgart win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading

Werder Bremen half-time and goal-timing data (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 68% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).

VfB Stuttgart half-time and goal-timing data (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Werder Bremen 64% and VfB Stuttgart 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Werder Bremen 62% | VfB Stuttgart 68%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Werder Bremen 1.15 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Werder Bremen attack 0.852 / defence 1.086 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.086 / defence 0.817. League average goals — home 1.658 / away 1.400. Data: built from Werder Bremen's last 63 games and VfB Stuttgart's last 63.

Result probabilities: Werder Bremen 25% | Draw 27% | VfB Stuttgart 48%. Fair-value odds: Werder Bremen 3.93 | Draw 3.73 | VfB Stuttgart 2.09. VfB Stuttgart hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is VfB Stuttgart at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VfB Stuttgart if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Werder Bremen's last 10 home games and VfB Stuttgart's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Werder Bremen 60% (last 10 home games) | VfB Stuttgart 50% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights