VfB Stuttgart 3-0 Eintracht Frankfurt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates VfB Stuttgart at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
VfB Stuttgart host Eintracht Frankfurt at Stuttgart Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 April 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, VfB Stuttgart stand at 8W 2D 0L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
VfB Stuttgart's home record at Stuttgart Arena: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.10 lags behind their overall 2.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stuttgart Arena this season.
Eintracht Frankfurt — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, VfB Stuttgart have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (2.60 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. VfB Stuttgart register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Eintracht Frankfurt in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, VfB Stuttgart have won 1, Eintracht Frankfurt 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 Nov 2023, ended 2–1 with VfB Stuttgart winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
VfB Stuttgart in-play tendencies (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Eintracht Frankfurt in-play tendencies (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfB Stuttgart 64% and Eintracht Frankfurt 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfB Stuttgart 68% | Eintracht Frankfurt 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 2.56 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.382 / defence 0.968 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.986 / defence 1.133. League average goals — home 1.638 / away 1.399. VfB Stuttgart carry an above-average attack strength of 1.382 — their λ of 2.56 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 62 VfB Stuttgart games / 62 Eintracht Frankfurt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 63% | Draw 20% | Eintracht Frankfurt 17%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 1.59 | Draw 5.00 | Eintracht Frankfurt 5.88. The model has a clear lean to VfB Stuttgart (63%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.90. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.90 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.56 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates VfB Stuttgart as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 75% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: VfB Stuttgart 70% | Eintracht Frankfurt 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stuttgart Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Apr 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 63% | Draw 20% | Eintracht Frankfurt 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 69% | xG VfB Stuttgart 2.56 / Eintracht Frankfurt 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.382 / def 0.968 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.986 / def 1.133 | league avg home 1.638 / away 1.399 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.56
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
69%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 13 April 2024 at Stuttgart Arena.
What was the final score in VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
VfB Stuttgart 3 - 0 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt being played?
The match is being played at Stuttgart Arena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 63% chance of winning, Eintracht Frankfurt a 17% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and Eintracht Frankfurt will score (BTTS).
Will VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Record (5 meetings): VfB Stuttgart 1W | Draws 2 | Eintracht Frankfurt 2W.
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Eintracht Frankfurt in?
VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
VfB Stuttgart's attacking strength (1.38x league average) is weighed against Eintracht Frankfurt's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.56. The same calculation in reverse, Eintracht Frankfurt's attack versus VfB Stuttgart's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.8%), 3-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
63%
1.59
20%
5.00
17%
5.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.6%
Home win
1 – 1
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.56
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
3.90
1.34
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
1.59
63%
Home win
5.00
20%
Draw
5.82
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.25
Clean Sheet
26%
3.81
8%
13.00
Win to Nil
16%
6.06
1%
75.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 6.9 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.9 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 7.6 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and Eintracht Frankfurt expected to score?
The model projects 2.56 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.34 for Eintracht Frankfurt, a combined total of 3.90.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
VfB Stuttgart's recent record stands at 28W 13D 21L from 62 games, a 1.56 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-W in the last five.
Eintracht Frankfurt, meanwhile, have gone 23W 23D 16L across 62 games — 1.48 PPG, with W-W-L-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: VfB Stuttgart on 1.56 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, VfB Stuttgart have managed 16W 8D 7L from 31 games — 1.81 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Eintracht Frankfurt's away record stands at 8W 11D 12L across 31 trips, a 1.13 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VfB Stuttgart come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Frankfurt are on 1.63 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Eintracht Frankfurt in 66%.
Last 62 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Current Season
Eintracht Frankfurt
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Eintracht Frankfurt in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 28W 13D 21L in their last 62 games (1.56 PPG), while Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 23W 23D 16L in their last 62 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or Eintracht Frankfurt away?
VfB Stuttgart's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 1.81 PPG; Eintracht Frankfurt away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between VfB Stuttgart and Eintracht Frankfurt runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Apr 2024, when VfB Stuttgart won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
VfB Stuttgart's record when hosting Eintracht Frankfurt specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
VfB Stuttgart
3
Draws
4
Eintracht Frankfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Eintracht Frankfurt?
From 10 meetings on record, VfB Stuttgart have won 3, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and Eintracht Frankfurt last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Eintracht Frankfurt 2-2 VfB Stuttgart.
Who has won more matches between VfB Stuttgart and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — VfB Stuttgart at 64%, Eintracht Frankfurt at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for VfB Stuttgart and 68% for Eintracht Frankfurt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / Eintracht Frankfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfB Stuttgart play Eintracht Frankfurt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of VfB Stuttgart's games and 71% of Eintracht Frankfurt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of VfB Stuttgart's matches and 68% of Eintracht Frankfurt's.
Do VfB Stuttgart and Eintracht Frankfurt tend to score early?
VfB Stuttgart have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Eintracht Frankfurt in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant VfB Stuttgart run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Eintracht Frankfurt.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfB Stuttgart beat Eintracht Frankfurt 3-0 at Stuttgart Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 2.56 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.34 xG, a combined 3.90. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Eintracht Frankfurt landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 1.38 / defence 0.97 against Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.99 / defence 1.13, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 63% | Draw 20% | Eintracht Frankfurt 17%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 63%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 68%, Eintracht Frankfurt 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VfB Stuttgart 1.56 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfB Stuttgart win broke the near-deadlock. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.