1. FC Heidenheim 1-2 RB Leipzig – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates RB Leipzig at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Heidenheim vs RB Leipzig encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
1. FC Heidenheim host RB Leipzig at Voith-Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 April 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L D D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
1. FC Heidenheim at Voith-Arena this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — 1. FC Heidenheim are significantly better at Voith-Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, RB Leipzig stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
RB Leipzig's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour RB Leipzig — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for 1. FC Heidenheim, 1 for RB Leipzig and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Dec 2023, ended 1–2 with RB Leipzig winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
1. FC Heidenheim in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
RB Leipzig in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Heidenheim 59% versus RB Leipzig 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Heidenheim 56% | RB Leipzig 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Heidenheim 1.48 xG and RB Leipzig 2.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.904 / defence 1.089 | RB Leipzig attack 1.542 / defence 0.982. League average goals — home 1.669 / away 1.367. RB Leipzig have an above-average attack strength of 1.542 — the away xG of 2.29 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 29 1. FC Heidenheim games / 63 RB Leipzig games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 23% | Draw 22% | RB Leipzig 55%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Heidenheim 4.35 | Draw 4.55 | RB Leipzig 1.82. The model has a clear lean to RB Leipzig (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.78. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.78 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (1.48 / 2.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, RB Leipzig are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.78 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 71% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Heidenheim 70% | RB Leipzig 90% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Heidenheim vs RB Leipzig | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Voith-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Apr 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 23% | Draw 22% | RB Leipzig 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 71% | xG 1. FC Heidenheim 1.48 / RB Leipzig 2.29 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.904 / def 1.089 | RB Leipzig attack 1.542 / def 0.982 | league avg home 1.669 / away 1.367 • Poisson stance: RB Leipzig (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Expected Goals
2.29
RB Leipzig xG
71%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Heidenheim vs RB Leipzig kick off?
1. FC Heidenheim vs RB Leipzig kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Voith-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs RB Leipzig?
1. FC Heidenheim 1 - 2 RB Leipzig.
Where is 1. FC Heidenheim vs RB Leipzig being played?
The match is being played at Voith-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Heidenheim vs RB Leipzig part of?
1. FC Heidenheim vs RB Leipzig is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Heidenheim vs RB Leipzig?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Heidenheim a 23% chance of winning, RB Leipzig a 55% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making RB Leipzig the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs RB Leipzig?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both 1. FC Heidenheim and RB Leipzig will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs RB Leipzig have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and RB Leipzig?
Record (1 meetings): 1. FC Heidenheim 0W | Draws 0 | RB Leipzig 1W.
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and RB Leipzig in?
1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-W-D. RB Leipzig (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates 1. FC Heidenheim's attack at 0.90x the league average against RB Leipzig's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, RB Leipzig's attack versus 1. FC Heidenheim's defence, projects 2.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 8.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.8%), 1-3 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Leipzig Win
23%
4.29
22%
4.56
55%
1.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.8%
Draw
1 – 3
6.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Total xG
3.78
2.29
RB Leipzig xG
4.29
23%
Home win
4.56
22%
Draw
1.82
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.42
29%
BTTS No
3.39
Clean Sheet
10%
9.92
23%
4.40
Win to Nil
2%
42.61
12%
8.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 3.4 | 7.8 | 8.9 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 5.8 | 6.6 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Heidenheim vs RB Leipzig?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are 1. FC Heidenheim and RB Leipzig expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 2.29 for RB Leipzig, a combined total of 3.78.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Heidenheim vs RB Leipzig?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
1. FC Heidenheim's recent record stands at 27W 20D 16L from 63 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-D in the last five.
RB Leipzig, meanwhile, have gone 37W 11D 15L across 63 games — 1.94 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1. FC Heidenheim on 1.60 PPG, RB Leipzig on 1.94. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, 1. FC Heidenheim have managed 18W 8D 5L from 31 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
RB Leipzig's away record stands at 14W 6D 11L across 31 trips, a 1.55 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Heidenheim come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
1. FC Heidenheim are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; RB Leipzig are on 2.08 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Heidenheim
Current Season
RB Leipzig
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and RB Leipzig in coming into this match?
1. FC Heidenheim have gone 27W 20D 16L in their last 63 games (1.60 PPG), while RB Leipzig have gone 37W 11D 15L in their last 63 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Heidenheim at home or RB Leipzig away?
1. FC Heidenheim's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Heidenheim at home: 2.00 PPG; RB Leipzig away: 1.55 PPG.
Have 1. FC Heidenheim or RB Leipzig been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Heidenheim have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, RB Leipzig in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between 1. FC Heidenheim and RB Leipzig runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
RB Leipzig go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Jan 2026, when RB Leipzig won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1. FC Heidenheim's record when hosting RB Leipzig specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
1. FC Heidenheim
1
Draws
5
RB Leipzig
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and RB Leipzig?
From 6 meetings on record, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 0, RB Leipzig have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Heidenheim and RB Leipzig last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when 1. FC Heidenheim 0-3 RB Leipzig.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Heidenheim and RB Leipzig?
RB Leipzig have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
RB Leipzig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Heidenheim 58%, RB Leipzig 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for 1. FC Heidenheim and 68% for RB Leipzig. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Heidenheim keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Heidenheim home games / RB Leipzig away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Heidenheim play RB Leipzig?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of 1. FC Heidenheim's games and 64% of RB Leipzig's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Heidenheim vs RB Leipzig usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of 1. FC Heidenheim's matches and 68% of RB Leipzig's.
Do 1. FC Heidenheim and RB Leipzig tend to score early?
1. FC Heidenheim have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, RB Leipzig in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as RB Leipzig edge out 1. FC Heidenheim 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Leipzig beat 1. FC Heidenheim 1-2 at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 1.48 xG and RB Leipzig 2.29 xG, a combined 3.78. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.90 / defence 1.09 against RB Leipzig attack 1.54 / defence 0.98, drawn from 29/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 23% | Draw 22% | RB Leipzig 55%, with RB Leipzig to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 56%, RB Leipzig 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
RB Leipzig's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Heidenheim 1.60 PPG, RB Leipzig 1.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RB Leipzig win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.10 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.