Union Berlin 1-5 Bayern München – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union Berlin at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union Berlin vs Bayern München fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Bayern München travel to Stadion An der Alten Försterei to take on Union Berlin. The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 April 2024, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Union Berlin have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Union Berlin have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Union Berlin are significantly better at Stadion An der Alten Försterei than their overall form suggests.
Bayern München — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bayern München away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Union Berlin) versus 1.60 (Bayern München). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The previous 5 encounters between these sides heavily favour Bayern München, who boast 4 victories compared to 0 for Union Berlin.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Jan 2024, ended 0–1 with Bayern München winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bayern München have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Union Berlin trading profile (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Bayern München trading profile (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Berlin 41% versus Bayern München 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 46% | Bayern München 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.69 xG and Bayern München 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.802 / defence 0.914 | Bayern München attack 1.345 / defence 1.265. League average goals — home 1.664 / away 1.373. Bayern München bring a strong defensive rating of 1.265 — this is suppressing Union Berlin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Bayern München have an above-average attack strength of 1.345 — the away xG of 1.69 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 63 Union Berlin games / 63 Bayern München games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 38% | Draw 25% | Bayern München 38%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 2.63 | Draw 4.00 | Bayern München 2.63. The draw (25%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.69 / 1.69) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 25% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 38% and away win at 38% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 3.38 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: Union Berlin 40% | Bayern München 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs Bayern München | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Apr 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 38% | Draw 25% | Bayern München 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 68% | xG Union Berlin 1.69 / Bayern München 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.802 / def 0.914 | Bayern München attack 1.345 / def 1.265 | league avg home 1.664 / away 1.373 • Poisson stance: Draw (25%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Bayern München xG
68%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs Bayern München kick off?
Union Berlin vs Bayern München kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs Bayern München?
Union Berlin 1 - 5 Bayern München.
Where is Union Berlin vs Bayern München being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs Bayern München part of?
Union Berlin vs Bayern München is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs Bayern München?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 38% chance of winning, Bayern München a 38% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs Bayern München?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Union Berlin and Bayern München will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs Bayern München have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Bayern München?
Record (5 meetings): Union Berlin 0W | Draws 1 | Bayern München 4W.
What form are Union Berlin and Bayern München in?
Union Berlin (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Bayern München (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Union Berlin's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Bayern München's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.69. The same calculation in reverse, Bayern München's attack versus Union Berlin's defence, projects 1.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.2%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
38%
2.66
25%
4.02
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
3.38
1.69
Bayern München xG
2.66
38%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.08
Clean Sheet
18%
5.41
18%
5.41
Win to Nil
7%
14.39
7%
14.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.8 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 9.7 | 8.2 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.2 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs Bayern München?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and Bayern München expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.69 for Bayern München, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs Bayern München?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 63 outings, Union Berlin have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 26W 13D 24L record — L-W-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Bayern München's form line: 41W 11D 11L from 63 games, 2.13 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-W.
Put side by side, Bayern München are the form team by 0.69 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Union Berlin.
Venue Form
On home soil, Union Berlin have posted 1.90 PPG from 31 outings (17W 8D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.44 PPG overall — Union Berlin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Bayern München have gone 18W 5D 8L from 31 away games — 1.90 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Union Berlin are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Bayern München are on 2.76 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bayern München in 60%.
Last 63 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Current Season
Bayern München
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and Bayern München in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 26W 13D 24L in their last 63 games (1.44 PPG), while Bayern München have gone 41W 11D 11L in their last 63 (2.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or Bayern München away?
Union Berlin's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 1.90 PPG; Bayern München away: 1.90 PPG.
Have Union Berlin or Bayern München been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union Berlin have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Bayern München in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Mar 2022, when Bayern München won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union Berlin's record when hosting Bayern München specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Union Berlin
3
Draws
7
Bayern München
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Bayern München?
From 10 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 0, Bayern München have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and Bayern München last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Bayern München 4-0 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and Bayern München?
Bayern München have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Bayern München are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Berlin 45%, Bayern München 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 48% for Union Berlin and 77% for Bayern München. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 55% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union Berlin keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Union Berlin have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / Bayern München away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play Bayern München?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 45% of Union Berlin's games and 71% of Bayern München's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union Berlin vs Bayern München usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Union Berlin's matches and 77% of Bayern München's.
Do Union Berlin and Bayern München tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Bayern München in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bayern München run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Union Berlin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bayern München beat Union Berlin 1-5 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 30, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.69 xG and Bayern München 1.69 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Bayern München outscored their 1.69 projection by 3.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.80 / defence 0.91 against Bayern München attack 1.34 / defence 1.26, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 38% | Draw 25% | Bayern München 38%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Bayern München win had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 46%, Bayern München 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Bayern München's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayern München arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 1.44. Form held, and they took the win. Union Berlin (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bayern München (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.32 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.