Bayer Leverkusen 2-2 VfB Stuttgart – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bayer Leverkusen at 62% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
VfB Stuttgart make the trip to BayArena to face Bayer Leverkusen in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 31. The match kicks off on Saturday 27 April 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bayer Leverkusen have collected 2.80 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 9W 1D 0L. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at BayArena, Bayer Leverkusen have gone 8W 2D 0L this season (10 games, 2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at BayArena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
VfB Stuttgart (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 2.30 points per game. Last five: W D W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, VfB Stuttgart have gone 6W 0D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Bayer Leverkusen's favour (2.80 vs 2.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Across 5 previous meetings, Bayer Leverkusen are the stronger side on paper — 3 victories to 0, with 2 draws in between.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 Dec 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Bayer Leverkusen and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Bayer Leverkusen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
VfB Stuttgart goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bayer Leverkusen 52% versus VfB Stuttgart 64%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bayer Leverkusen 67% | VfB Stuttgart 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bayer Leverkusen 1.96 xG and VfB Stuttgart 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.353 / defence 0.582 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.047 / defence 0.875. League average goals — home 1.660 / away 1.409. Bayer Leverkusen carry an above-average attack strength of 1.353 — their λ of 1.96 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Bayer Leverkusen's defence rating of 0.582 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 64 Bayer Leverkusen games / 64 VfB Stuttgart games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 62% | Draw 24% | VfB Stuttgart 14%. Fair-value odds: Bayer Leverkusen 1.61 | Draw 4.17 | VfB Stuttgart 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Bayer Leverkusen (62%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bayer Leverkusen at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Bayer Leverkusen 30% | VfB Stuttgart 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: BayArena • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Apr 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 62% | Draw 24% | VfB Stuttgart 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 51% | xG Bayer Leverkusen 1.96 / VfB Stuttgart 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.353 / def 0.582 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.047 / def 0.875 | league avg home 1.660 / away 1.409 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Bayer Leverkusen xG
Expected Goals
0.86
VfB Stuttgart xG
51%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart kick off?
Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 27 April 2024 at BayArena.
What was the final score in Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart?
Bayer Leverkusen 2 - 2 VfB Stuttgart.
Where is Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart being played?
The match is being played at BayArena.
What competition is Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart part of?
Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our statistical model gives Bayer Leverkusen a 62% chance of winning, VfB Stuttgart a 14% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Bayer Leverkusen and VfB Stuttgart will score (BTTS).
Will Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bayer Leverkusen and VfB Stuttgart?
Record (5 meetings): Bayer Leverkusen 3W | Draws 2 | VfB Stuttgart 0W.
What form are Bayer Leverkusen and VfB Stuttgart in?
Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Bayer Leverkusen's attack rating (1.35) and VfB Stuttgart's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.96 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — VfB Stuttgart's attack (1.05x) against Bayer Leverkusen's defence (0.58x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
62%
1.62
24%
4.19
14%
7.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Bayer Leverkusen xG
Total xG
2.82
0.86
VfB Stuttgart xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
7.00
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
14%
7.13
Win to Nil
26%
3.82
2%
49.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.7 | 10.0 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.5 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Bayer Leverkusen and VfB Stuttgart expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 0.86 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bayer Leverkusen's recent record stands at 39W 13D 12L from 64 games, a 2.03 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five.
VfB Stuttgart, meanwhile, have gone 29W 13D 22L across 64 games — 1.56 PPG, with W-D-W-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bayer Leverkusen by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over VfB Stuttgart heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Bayer Leverkusen have managed 21W 5D 6L from 32 games — 2.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
VfB Stuttgart's away record stands at 12W 5D 15L across 32 trips, a 1.28 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayer Leverkusen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bayer Leverkusen are averaging 2.06 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; VfB Stuttgart are on 1.81 scored and 1.42 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart in 64%.
Defensively: Bayer Leverkusen have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bayer Leverkusen
Current Season
VfB Stuttgart
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bayer Leverkusen and VfB Stuttgart in coming into this match?
Bayer Leverkusen have gone 39W 13D 12L in their last 64 games (2.03 PPG), while VfB Stuttgart have gone 29W 13D 22L in their last 64 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bayer Leverkusen at home or VfB Stuttgart away?
Bayer Leverkusen's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bayer Leverkusen at home: 2.12 PPG; VfB Stuttgart away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Bayer Leverkusen or VfB Stuttgart been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bayer Leverkusen have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, VfB Stuttgart in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: VfB Stuttgart have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfB Stuttgart won 1-4 on 10 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bayer Leverkusen have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against VfB Stuttgart — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Bayer Leverkusen
4
Draws
2
VfB Stuttgart
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bayer Leverkusen and VfB Stuttgart?
From 10 meetings on record, Bayer Leverkusen have won 4, VfB Stuttgart have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Bayer Leverkusen and VfB Stuttgart last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when VfB Stuttgart 3-1 Bayer Leverkusen.
Who has won more matches between Bayer Leverkusen and VfB Stuttgart?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bayer Leverkusen 53%, VfB Stuttgart 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Bayer Leverkusen and 75% for VfB Stuttgart. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bayer Leverkusen keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bayer Leverkusen home games / VfB Stuttgart away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bayer Leverkusen play VfB Stuttgart?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Bayer Leverkusen's games and 66% of VfB Stuttgart's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Bayer Leverkusen's matches and 75% of VfB Stuttgart's.
Do Bayer Leverkusen and VfB Stuttgart tend to score early?
Bayer Leverkusen have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, VfB Stuttgart in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bayer Leverkusen and VfB Stuttgart share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at BayArena, Regular Season - 31, as Bayer Leverkusen and VfB Stuttgart drew 2-2 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayer Leverkusen 1.96 xG and VfB Stuttgart 0.86 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. VfB Stuttgart outscored their 0.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.35 / defence 0.58 against VfB Stuttgart attack 1.05 / defence 0.88, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bayer Leverkusen 62% | Draw 24% | VfB Stuttgart 14%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayer Leverkusen 67%, VfB Stuttgart 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.56. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.