FC Augsburg 0-3 Werder Bremen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Augsburg at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Augsburg vs Werder Bremen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Werder Bremen make the trip to WWK Arena to face FC Augsburg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 31. The match kicks off on Saturday 27 April 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Augsburg have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FC Augsburg's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at WWK Arena this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Werder Bremen (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Werder Bremen's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in FC Augsburg's favour (1.70 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: FC Augsburg 3W, Werder Bremen 2W, 0D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Dec 2023, ended 0–2 with Werder Bremen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
FC Augsburg — key trading statistics (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Werder Bremen — key trading statistics (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 68% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Augsburg 66% and Werder Bremen 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 58% | Werder Bremen 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.70 xG and Werder Bremen 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.975 / defence 0.888 | Werder Bremen attack 0.794 / defence 1.049. League average goals — home 1.662 / away 1.388. Data: 64 FC Augsburg games / 64 Werder Bremen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 53% | Draw 27% | Werder Bremen 20%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 1.89 | Draw 3.70 | Werder Bremen 5.00. FC Augsburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Augsburg as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 70% | Werder Bremen 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs Werder Bremen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Apr 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 53% | Draw 27% | Werder Bremen 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG FC Augsburg 1.70 / Werder Bremen 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 0.975 / def 0.888 | Werder Bremen attack 0.794 / def 1.049 | league avg home 1.662 / away 1.388 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Werder Bremen xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs Werder Bremen kick off?
FC Augsburg vs Werder Bremen kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 27 April 2024 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs Werder Bremen?
FC Augsburg 0 - 3 Werder Bremen.
Where is FC Augsburg vs Werder Bremen being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs Werder Bremen part of?
FC Augsburg vs Werder Bremen is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs Werder Bremen?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 53% chance of winning, Werder Bremen a 20% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs Werder Bremen?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both FC Augsburg and Werder Bremen will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs Werder Bremen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Werder Bremen?
Record (5 meetings): FC Augsburg 3W | Draws 0 | Werder Bremen 2W.
What form are FC Augsburg and Werder Bremen in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Werder Bremen (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from FC Augsburg's attack rating (0.97) and Werder Bremen's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.70 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Werder Bremen's attack (0.79x) against FC Augsburg's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
53%
1.90
27%
3.68
20%
4.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
2.68
0.98
Werder Bremen xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
4.99
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
18%
5.48
Win to Nil
20%
5.04
4%
27.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 11.4 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs Werder Bremen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and Werder Bremen expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 0.98 for Werder Bremen, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs Werder Bremen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC Augsburg's recent record stands at 19W 16D 29L from 64 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-L in the last five.
Werder Bremen, meanwhile, have gone 19W 13D 32L across 64 games — 1.09 PPG, with L-L-D-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for FC Augsburg against 1.09 for Werder Bremen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, FC Augsburg have managed 12W 10D 10L from 32 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Werder Bremen's away record stands at 8W 8D 16L across 32 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Augsburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Werder Bremen are on 1.39 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Augsburg have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; Werder Bremen in 64%.
Last 64 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Current Season
Werder Bremen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and Werder Bremen in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 19W 16D 29L in their last 64 games (1.14 PPG), while Werder Bremen have gone 19W 13D 32L in their last 64 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or Werder Bremen away?
FC Augsburg's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.44 PPG; Werder Bremen away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Werder Bremen won 0-3 on 27 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Augsburg have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Werder Bremen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
FC Augsburg
2
Draws
3
Werder Bremen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Werder Bremen?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 5, Werder Bremen have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and Werder Bremen last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Werder Bremen 1-3 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and Werder Bremen?
FC Augsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Augsburg see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Werder Bremen see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Augsburg 62%, Werder Bremen 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (FC Augsburg) and 56% (Werder Bremen).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / Werder Bremen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play Werder Bremen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of FC Augsburg's games and 62% of Werder Bremen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Augsburg vs Werder Bremen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of FC Augsburg's recent games and 56% of Werder Bremen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Werder Bremen run riot with a 0-3 hammering of FC Augsburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Werder Bremen beat FC Augsburg 0-3 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 31, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.70 xG and Werder Bremen 0.98 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. FC Augsburg fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Werder Bremen outscored their 0.98 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.97 / defence 0.89 against Werder Bremen attack 0.79 / defence 1.05, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 53% | Draw 27% | Werder Bremen 20%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Werder Bremen win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 58%, Werder Bremen 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Werder Bremen's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Augsburg 1.14 PPG, Werder Bremen 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Werder Bremen win broke the near-deadlock. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.