VfB Stuttgart 4-0 VfL Wolfsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates VfB Stuttgart at 54% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
VfL Wolfsburg travel to MHPArena to take on VfB Stuttgart in Bundesliga (matchday 24). The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 March 2026 at 14:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, VfB Stuttgart have gone 6W 3D 1L — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
VfB Stuttgart's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at their last 10 matches, VfL Wolfsburg stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.60. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
VfL Wolfsburg's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
VfB Stuttgart carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.30 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 9 H2H matches we hold have produced 4 wins for VfB Stuttgart, 3 for VfL Wolfsburg and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 9 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 18 Oct 2025, ended VfB Stuttgart 3–0 VfL Wolfsburg — a VfB Stuttgart win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
VfB Stuttgart trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
VfL Wolfsburg trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfB Stuttgart 63% and VfL Wolfsburg 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (VfB Stuttgart 72% | VfL Wolfsburg 63%). Note also that VfL Wolfsburg surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while VfB Stuttgart recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 1.93 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 0.929 / defence 0.931 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.920 / defence 1.224. League average goals — home 1.700 / away 1.377. VfL Wolfsburg's defence rating of 1.224 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing VfB Stuttgart's projected output up. Data: built from VfB Stuttgart's last 57 games and VfL Wolfsburg's last 57.
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 54% | Draw 23% | VfL Wolfsburg 23%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 1.84 | Draw 4.35 | VfL Wolfsburg 4.43. VfB Stuttgart hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.93 / 1.18) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is VfB Stuttgart at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VfB Stuttgart offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.11 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (VfB Stuttgart's last 10 home games and VfL Wolfsburg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 9 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: VfB Stuttgart 50% (last 10 home games) | VfL Wolfsburg 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 24 | Venue: MHPArena • Kick-off: Sunday 1 March 2026 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 54% | Draw 23% | VfL Wolfsburg 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG VfB Stuttgart 1.93 / VfL Wolfsburg 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 0.929 / def 0.931 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.920 / def 1.224 | league avg home 1.700 / away 1.377 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
1.18
VfL Wolfsburg xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg FAQs
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Sunday 1 March 2026 at MHPArena.
What was the final score in VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg?
VfB Stuttgart 4 - 0 VfL Wolfsburg.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg being played?
The match is being played at MHPArena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 24) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 54% chance of winning, VfL Wolfsburg a 23% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and VfL Wolfsburg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from VfB Stuttgart's attack rating (0.93) and VfL Wolfsburg's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.93 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, VfL Wolfsburg's attack versus VfB Stuttgart's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from VfB Stuttgart's last 57 games and VfL Wolfsburg's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
54%
1.84
23%
4.35
23%
4.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
3.11
1.18
VfL Wolfsburg xG
1.84
54%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
4.43
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
14%
6.91
Win to Nil
17%
5.98
3%
30.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 10.1 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and VfL Wolfsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.18 for VfL Wolfsburg, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 57 outings, VfB Stuttgart have picked up 1.63 PPG on a 27W 12D 18L record — W-W-L-W-D across the most recent five.
VfL Wolfsburg's form line: 16W 15D 26L from 57 games, 1.11 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-L.
Put side by side, VfB Stuttgart are the form team by 0.52 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against VfL Wolfsburg.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, VfB Stuttgart have posted 1.75 PPG from their last 28 home games (15W 4D 9L).
On the road, VfL Wolfsburg have gone 11W 5D 12L from their last 28 away games — 1.36 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; VfL Wolfsburg are on 1.56 scored and 1.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; VfL Wolfsburg in 72%.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
VfL Wolfsburg
Blended
VfB Stuttgart (Home) vs VfL Wolfsburg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
VfL Wolfsburg
Blended
❓ VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg Form FAQs
What form are VfB Stuttgart and VfL Wolfsburg in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 27W 12D 18L in their last 57 games (1.63 PPG), while VfL Wolfsburg have gone 16W 15D 26L in their last 57 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or VfL Wolfsburg away?
VfB Stuttgart's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 1.75 PPG; VfL Wolfsburg away: 1.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 1 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
VfB Stuttgart have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 1 Mar 2026, when VfB Stuttgart won VfB Stuttgart 4-0 VfL Wolfsburg.
VfB Stuttgart's record when hosting VfL Wolfsburg specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
VfB Stuttgart
2
Draws
3
VfL Wolfsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and VfL Wolfsburg?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, VfB Stuttgart have won 5, VfL Wolfsburg have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and VfL Wolfsburg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 March 2026: VfB Stuttgart 4-0 VfL Wolfsburg.
Who has won more matches between VfB Stuttgart and VfL Wolfsburg?
VfB Stuttgart have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfB Stuttgart 61%, VfL Wolfsburg 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for VfB Stuttgart and 61% for VfL Wolfsburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / VfL Wolfsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in VfB Stuttgart and VfL Wolfsburg matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of VfB Stuttgart's games and 64% of VfL Wolfsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are VfB Stuttgart and VfL Wolfsburg matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of VfB Stuttgart's matches and 61% of VfL Wolfsburg's.
Do VfB Stuttgart and VfL Wolfsburg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of VfB Stuttgart's recent matches and 71% of VfL Wolfsburg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant VfB Stuttgart run riot with a 4-0 hammering of VfL Wolfsburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfB Stuttgart beat VfL Wolfsburg 4-0 at MHPArena, Regular Season - 24, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 1.93 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.18 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. VfB Stuttgart beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. VfL Wolfsburg landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 0.93 / defence 0.93 against VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.92 / defence 1.22, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 54% | Draw 23% | VfL Wolfsburg 23%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 72%, VfL Wolfsburg 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, VfB Stuttgart arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.11. Form held, and they took the win. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.86 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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