Union Berlin 4-0 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours FC Augsburg (46%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Union Berlin face FC Augsburg.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Union Berlin and FC Augsburg meet at Stadion An der Alten Försterei in Bundesliga (matchday 34). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 May 2026 at 15:30 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Union Berlin have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Union Berlin's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

FC Augsburg (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

On the road, FC Augsburg have gone 4W 1D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

FC Augsburg arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Union Berlin's last 10 home games and FC Augsburg's last 10 away games) — Union Berlin have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, FC Augsburg in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head sample leans to FC Augsburg, who have 4 wins from 8 H2H matches compared to 1 for the hosts, with 3 draws.

The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 15 Jan 2026, ended Union Berlin 1–1 FC Augsburg — a draw.

FC Augsburg have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 8 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.

Trading Data

Union Berlin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 67 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 29 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

FC Augsburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 67 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 37%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Berlin 57% versus FC Augsburg 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 55% | FC Augsburg 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.33 xG and FC Augsburg 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.821 / defence 1.167 | FC Augsburg attack 0.968 / defence 0.942. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 1.492. Data: built from Union Berlin's last 67 games and FC Augsburg's last 67.

Result probabilities: Union Berlin 30% | Draw 24% | FC Augsburg 46%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 3.30 | Draw 4.20 | FC Augsburg 2.18. FC Augsburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.33 / 1.68) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Augsburg at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.01 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Union Berlin's last 10 home games and FC Augsburg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Union Berlin 80% (last 10 home games) | FC Augsburg 60% (last 10 away games).

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