FC Augsburg 3-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Augsburg at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Augsburg host Borussia Mönchengladbach at WWK Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 9 May 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Augsburg stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
FC Augsburg at WWK Arena this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Borussia Mönchengladbach — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Borussia Mönchengladbach away from home this season: 0W 4D 6L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC Augsburg 1.50 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 5 wins for FC Augsburg, 3 for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 Jan 2026, ended 0–4 with Borussia Mönchengladbach winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
FC Augsburg in-play and half-time data (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Borussia Mönchengladbach in-play and half-time data (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Augsburg 54% versus Borussia Mönchengladbach 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 56% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.45 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.859 / defence 1.038 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.731 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.714 / away 1.485. Data: 66 FC Augsburg games / 66 Borussia Mönchengladbach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 44% | Draw 27% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 29%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Augsburg are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 60% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 44% | Draw 27% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG FC Augsburg 1.45 / Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 0.859 / def 1.038 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.731 / def 0.985 | league avg home 1.714 / away 1.485 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kick off?
FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 9 May 2026 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
FC Augsburg 3 - 1 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Where is FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach part of?
FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 44% chance of winning, Borussia Mönchengladbach a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both FC Augsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Record (9 meetings): FC Augsburg 5W | Draws 1 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 3W.
What form are FC Augsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-W-D-W. Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC Augsburg's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Borussia Mönchengladbach's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack versus FC Augsburg's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.4%), 0-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
44%
2.27
27%
3.71
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
2.58
1.13
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
23%
4.26
Win to Nil
14%
7.01
7%
14.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.6 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.4 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.13 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Augsburg come into this having played 66 games, going 22W 17D 27L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-D-W.
On the other side, Borussia Mönchengladbach sit at 1.21 PPG from 66 outings (21W 17D 28L), a run that reads D-L-D-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Augsburg on 1.26 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
FC Augsburg's home form reads 12W 10D 11L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.39 PPG return.
Away from home, Borussia Mönchengladbach have taken 1.06 points per game from 33 outings (9W 8D 16L).
The Goals Picture
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Borussia Mönchengladbach are on 1.39 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Current Season
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 22W 17D 27L in their last 66 games (1.26 PPG), while Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 21W 17D 28L in their last 66 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or Borussia Mönchengladbach away?
FC Augsburg's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.39 PPG; Borussia Mönchengladbach away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Augsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Jan 2026, when Borussia Mönchengladbach won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Augsburg's record when hosting Borussia Mönchengladbach specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
FC Augsburg
1
Draws
3
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 6, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when FC Augsburg 3-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
FC Augsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Augsburg 54%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (FC Augsburg) and 58% (Borussia Mönchengladbach).
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; FC Augsburg have failed to score in 27% of games; Borussia Mönchengladbach in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / Borussia Mönchengladbach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of FC Augsburg's games and 58% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of FC Augsburg's recent games and 58% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Augsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Augsburg cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Borussia Mönchengladbach.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Augsburg beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-1 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 33, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.45 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.13 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. FC Augsburg beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.86 / defence 1.04 against Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.73 / defence 0.98, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 44% | Draw 27% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 29%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 56%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Augsburg 1.26 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Augsburg win broke the near-deadlock. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.