Eintracht Frankfurt 1-3 1899 Hoffenheim – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Eintracht Frankfurt at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1899 Hoffenheim encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
1899 Hoffenheim make the trip to Deutsche Bank Park to face Eintracht Frankfurt in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Saturday 24 January 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
Eintracht Frankfurt (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Eintracht Frankfurt have posted 5W 3D 2L at Deutsche Bank Park — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
1899 Hoffenheim's overall Bundesliga record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: L W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for 1899 Hoffenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1899 Hoffenheim away from home this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, 1899 Hoffenheim are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Across 9 previous meetings, Eintracht Frankfurt are the stronger side on paper — 5 victories to 2, with 2 draws in between.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.3 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2025, ended 3–1 with Eintracht Frankfurt winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Eintracht Frankfurt and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 4.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Eintracht Frankfurt goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
1899 Hoffenheim goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eintracht Frankfurt 69% and 1899 Hoffenheim 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Frankfurt 67% | 1899 Hoffenheim 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Frankfurt 1.48 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.024 / defence 1.000 | 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.994 / defence 0.834. League average goals — home 1.733 / away 1.433. Data: 52 Eintracht Frankfurt games / 51 1899 Hoffenheim games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 37% | Draw 29% | 1899 Hoffenheim 34%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Frankfurt 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | 1899 Hoffenheim 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.48 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Eintracht Frankfurt dominate the H2H record, yet 1899 Hoffenheim are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Eintracht Frankfurt as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form 1899 Hoffenheim (2.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Eintracht Frankfurt if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Eintracht Frankfurt 50% | 1899 Hoffenheim 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1899 Hoffenheim | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Deutsche Bank Park • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Jan 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 37% | Draw 29% | 1899 Hoffenheim 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 61% | xG Eintracht Frankfurt 1.48 / 1899 Hoffenheim 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.024 / def 1.000 | 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.994 / def 0.834 | league avg home 1.733 / away 1.433 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Frankfurt (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Expected Goals
1.42
1899 Hoffenheim xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1899 Hoffenheim kick off?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1899 Hoffenheim kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 24 January 2026 at Deutsche Bank Park.
What was the final score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Eintracht Frankfurt 1 - 3 1899 Hoffenheim.
Where is Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1899 Hoffenheim being played?
The match is being played at Deutsche Bank Park.
What competition is Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1899 Hoffenheim part of?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1899 Hoffenheim is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Frankfurt a 37% chance of winning, 1899 Hoffenheim a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Frankfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Eintracht Frankfurt and 1899 Hoffenheim will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1899 Hoffenheim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and 1899 Hoffenheim?
Record (9 meetings): Eintracht Frankfurt 5W | Draws 2 | 1899 Hoffenheim 2W.
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and 1899 Hoffenheim in?
Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-D-D-L-D. 1899 Hoffenheim (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Eintracht Frankfurt's attack rating (1.02) and 1899 Hoffenheim's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — 1899 Hoffenheim's attack (0.99x) against Eintracht Frankfurt's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 52/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Frankfurt Win
37%
2.73
29%
3.42
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Total xG
2.90
1.42
1899 Hoffenheim xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
23%
4.39
Win to Nil
9%
11.34
8%
12.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.8 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.5 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.5 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Eintracht Frankfurt and 1899 Hoffenheim expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 1.42 for 1899 Hoffenheim, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Eintracht Frankfurt come into this having played 51 games, going 24W 15D 12L for 1.71 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-L-D. The sample for Eintracht Frankfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, 1899 Hoffenheim sit at 1.27 PPG from 51 outings (17W 14D 20L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for 1899 Hoffenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Eintracht Frankfurt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of 1899 Hoffenheim — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Eintracht Frankfurt's home form reads 14W 6D 5L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.92 PPG return.
Away from home, 1899 Hoffenheim have taken 1.20 points per game from 25 outings (7W 9D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eintracht Frankfurt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Eintracht Frankfurt are averaging 2.08 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; 1899 Hoffenheim are on 1.59 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; 1899 Hoffenheim in 67%.
Last 51 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
1899 Hoffenheim
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and 1899 Hoffenheim in coming into this match?
Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 24W 15D 12L in their last 51 games (1.71 PPG), while 1899 Hoffenheim have gone 17W 14D 20L in their last 51 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Frankfurt at home or 1899 Hoffenheim away?
Eintracht Frankfurt's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Frankfurt at home: 1.92 PPG; 1899 Hoffenheim away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against 1899 Hoffenheim — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Eintracht Frankfurt
2
Draws
3
1899 Hoffenheim
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and 1899 Hoffenheim?
From 10 meetings on record, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 5, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Frankfurt and 1899 Hoffenheim last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Eintracht Frankfurt 1-3 1899 Hoffenheim.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Frankfurt and 1899 Hoffenheim?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
1899 Hoffenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eintracht Frankfurt 60%, 1899 Hoffenheim 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Eintracht Frankfurt and 56% for 1899 Hoffenheim. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Eintracht Frankfurt keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; 1899 Hoffenheim in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Frankfurt home games / 1899 Hoffenheim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Frankfurt play 1899 Hoffenheim?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Eintracht Frankfurt's games and 64% of 1899 Hoffenheim's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1899 Hoffenheim usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Eintracht Frankfurt's matches and 56% of 1899 Hoffenheim's.
Do Eintracht Frankfurt and 1899 Hoffenheim tend to score early?
Eintracht Frankfurt have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, 1899 Hoffenheim in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1899 Hoffenheim cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Eintracht Frankfurt.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1899 Hoffenheim beat Eintracht Frankfurt 1-3 at Deutsche Bank Park, Regular Season - 19, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Frankfurt 1.48 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 1.42 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. 1899 Hoffenheim outscored their 1.42 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.02 / defence 1.00 against 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.99 / defence 0.83, drawn from 52/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Frankfurt 37% | Draw 29% | 1899 Hoffenheim 34%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual 1899 Hoffenheim win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Frankfurt 67%, 1899 Hoffenheim 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Eintracht Frankfurt arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.27. Form was overturned, with 1899 Hoffenheim winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.24 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual. 1899 Hoffenheim (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.