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Poisson model rates FC St. Pauli at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC St. Pauli vs Hamburger SV fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 19 as FC St. Pauli welcome Hamburger SV to Millerntor-Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 23 January 2026 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC St. Pauli stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC St. Pauli at Millerntor-Stadion this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Hamburger SV — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hamburger SV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Hamburger SV have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC St. Pauli 0.50 PPG, Hamburger SV 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for FC St. Pauli, 3 for Hamburger SV and 1 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2025, ended 2–0 with FC St. Pauli winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
FC St. Pauli in-play tendencies (51 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Hamburger SV in-play tendencies (51 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC St. Pauli 39% versus Hamburger SV 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC St. Pauli 39% | Hamburger SV 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC St. Pauli 1.63 xG and Hamburger SV 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC St. Pauli attack 0.773 / defence 1.217 | Hamburger SV attack 0.651 / defence 1.202. League average goals — home 1.753 / away 1.449. FC St. Pauli's attack strength of 0.773 is below the league average — the 1.63 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Hamburger SV bring a strong defensive rating of 1.202 — this is suppressing FC St. Pauli's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 51 FC St. Pauli games / 17 Hamburger SV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 46% | Draw 29% | Hamburger SV 25%. Fair-value odds: FC St. Pauli 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Hamburger SV 4.00. FC St. Pauli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC St. Pauli as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC St. Pauli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.78 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: FC St. Pauli 50% | Hamburger SV 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC St. Pauli vs Hamburger SV | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Millerntor-Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 23 Jan 2026, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (7 meetings): FC St. Pauli 3W | Draws 1 | Hamburger SV 3W • Goals trend: 3.57 goals/game | Total H2H goals: FC St. Pauli 14 – 11 Hamburger SV • H2H markets: BTTS 57% | Over 2.5 71% | Win rates: FC St. Pauli 43% / Draw 14% / Hamburger SV 43% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 46% / draw 29% / away 25% • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 3.57 goals/game (71% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 2.78 (52% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS: H2H rate 57%, Poisson probability 57% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• FC St. Pauli (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-D-L-L • Hamburger SV (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-L-D • FC St. Pauli home split: 0.80 PPG from 10 | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | CS 0 • Hamburger SV away split: 0.50 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | CS 3 • Form edge: minimal separation (FC St. Pauli 0.50 PPG vs Hamburger SV 0.90 PPG) • xG vs form (FC St. Pauli): Poisson projects 1.63 xG vs form scoring rate of 0.90 — model rates them higher than raw form suggests, likely reflecting a strong defence-adjusted attack strength • xG vs form (Hamburger SV): Poisson xG of 1.15 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.00 — consistent corroboration • Goals contradiction — form projects only ~1.9 goals/game (Under signal) but Poisson xG sum is 2.78 (52% Over probability) — underlying attack/defence strengths differ from surface-level results • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~50% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 57% — no strong positional edge
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 46% | Draw 29% | Hamburger SV 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG FC St. Pauli 1.63 / Hamburger SV 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: FC St. Pauli attack 0.773 / def 1.217 | Hamburger SV attack 0.651 / def 1.202 | league avg home 1.753 / away 1.449 • Poisson stance: FC St. Pauli (46%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
FC St. Pauli xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Hamburger SV xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC St. Pauli vs Hamburger SV kick off?
FC St. Pauli vs Hamburger SV kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 23 January 2026 at Millerntor-Stadion.
What was the final score in FC St. Pauli vs Hamburger SV?
FC St. Pauli 0 - 0 Hamburger SV.
Where is FC St. Pauli vs Hamburger SV being played?
The match is being played at Millerntor-Stadion.
What competition is FC St. Pauli vs Hamburger SV part of?
FC St. Pauli vs Hamburger SV is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC St. Pauli vs Hamburger SV?
Our statistical model gives FC St. Pauli a 46% chance of winning, Hamburger SV a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making FC St. Pauli the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC St. Pauli vs Hamburger SV?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both FC St. Pauli and Hamburger SV will score (BTTS).
Will FC St. Pauli vs Hamburger SV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and Hamburger SV?
• Record (7 meetings): FC St. Pauli 3W | Draws 1 | Hamburger SV 3W • Goals trend: 3.57 goals/game | Total H2H goals: FC St. Pauli 14 – 11 Hamburger SV • H2H markets: BTTS 57% | Over 2.5 71% | Win rates: FC St. Pauli 43% / Draw 14% / Hamburger SV 43% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 46% / draw 29% / away 25% • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 3.57 goals/game (71% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 2.78 (52% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS: H2H rate 57%, Poisson probability 57% — no strong aligned signal
What form are FC St. Pauli and Hamburger SV in?
• FC St. Pauli (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-D-L-L • Hamburger SV (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-L-D • FC St. Pauli home split: 0.80 PPG from 10 | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | CS 0 • Hamburger SV away split: 0.50 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | CS 3 • Form edge: minimal separation (FC St. Pauli 0.50 PPG vs Hamburger SV 0.90 PPG) • xG vs form (FC St. Pauli): Poisson projects 1.63 xG vs form scoring rate of 0.90 — model rates them higher than raw form suggests, likely reflecting a strong defence-adjusted attack strength • xG vs form (Hamburger SV): Poisson xG of 1.15 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.00 — consistent corroboration • Goals contradiction — form projects only ~1.9 goals/game (Under signal) but Poisson xG sum is 2.78 (52% Over probability) — underlying attack/defence strengths differ from surface-level results • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~50% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 57% — no strong positional edge
What do the betting odds say about FC St. Pauli vs Hamburger SV?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture