Hamburger SV 1-1 1. FC Köln – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hamburger SV at 53% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hamburger SV host 1. FC Köln at Volksparkstadion in Bundesliga (matchday 26). Kick-off is Saturday 14 March 2026 at 17:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Hamburger SV — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Hamburger SV's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, 1. FC Köln have recorded 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
1. FC Köln's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Hamburger SV are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Hamburger SV's games and 60% of 1. FC Köln's (from Hamburger SV's last 10 home games and 1. FC Köln's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Hamburger SV, 1 for 1. FC Köln and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 2 Nov 2025, ended Hamburger SV 1–4 1. FC Köln — a 1. FC Köln win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Hamburger SV in-play and half-time data (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
1. FC Köln in-play and half-time data (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hamburger SV 63% and 1. FC Köln 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hamburger SV 66% | 1. FC Köln 56%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Hamburger SV surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while 1. FC Köln have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 31% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hamburger SV 1.70 xG and 1. FC Köln 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hamburger SV attack 0.846 / defence 0.989 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.724 / defence 1.197. League average goals — home 1.678 / away 1.369. 1. FC Köln's attack rating of 0.724 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.98. Data: built from Hamburger SV's last 25 games and 1. FC Köln's last 25.
Result probabilities: Hamburger SV 53% | Draw 26% | 1. FC Köln 21%. Fair-value odds: Hamburger SV 1.87 | Draw 3.90 | 1. FC Köln 4.78. Hamburger SV hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hamburger SV are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hamburger SV offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hamburger SV 70% (last 10 home games) | 1. FC Köln 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 26 | Venue: Volksparkstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 14 March 2026 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hamburger SV 53% | Draw 26% | 1. FC Köln 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Hamburger SV 1.70 / 1. FC Köln 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Hamburger SV attack 0.846 / def 0.989 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.724 / def 1.197 | league avg home 1.678 / away 1.369 • Poisson stance: Hamburger SV (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Hamburger SV xG
Expected Goals
0.98
1. FC Köln xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln FAQs
What time does Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln kick off?
Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Saturday 14 March 2026 at Volksparkstadion.
What was the final score in Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln?
Hamburger SV 1 - 1 1. FC Köln.
Where is Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln being played?
The match is being played at Volksparkstadion.
What competition is Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln part of?
Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 26) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln?
Our statistical model gives Hamburger SV a 53% chance of winning, 1. FC Köln a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Hamburger SV the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Hamburger SV and 1. FC Köln will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Hamburger SV's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against 1. FC Köln's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.70. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Köln's attack versus Hamburger SV's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Hamburger SV's last 25 games and 1. FC Köln's last 25 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hamburger SV Win
53%
1.87
26%
3.90
21%
4.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Hamburger SV xG
Total xG
2.68
0.98
1. FC Köln xG
1.87
53%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
4.78
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
18%
5.47
Win to Nil
20%
4.99
4%
26.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 11.4 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Hamburger SV and 1. FC Köln expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Hamburger SV and 0.98 for 1. FC Köln, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hamburger SV come into this having played 59 games, going 23W 19D 17L for 1.49 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-W.
On the other side, 1. FC Köln sit at 1.44 PPG from 59 outings (24W 13D 22L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hamburger SV on 1.49 PPG, 1. FC Köln on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Hamburger SV's home form reads 13W 10D 6L across their last 29 home games, a 1.69 PPG return.
Away from home, 1. FC Köln have taken 1.34 points per game from their last 29 away games (11W 6D 12L).
The Goals Picture
Hamburger SV are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Köln are on 1.47 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hamburger SV have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; 1. FC Köln in 61%.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hamburger SV
Blended
1. FC Köln
Blended
Hamburger SV (Home) vs 1. FC Köln (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hamburger SV
Blended
1. FC Köln
Blended
❓ Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln Form FAQs
What form are Hamburger SV and 1. FC Köln in coming into this match?
Hamburger SV have gone 23W 19D 17L in their last 59 games (1.49 PPG), while 1. FC Köln have gone 24W 13D 22L in their last 59 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hamburger SV at home or 1. FC Köln away?
Hamburger SV's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hamburger SV at home: 1.69 PPG; 1. FC Köln away: 1.34 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 5 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2024. They cover more than one competition — 2. Bundesliga, Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 19 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 2 Nov 2025, when 1. FC Köln won 1. FC Köln 4-1 Hamburger SV.
Hamburger SV's record when hosting 1. FC Köln specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Hamburger SV
1
Draws
1
1. FC Köln
Recent Meetings
❓ Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and 1. FC Köln?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Hamburger SV have won 3, 1. FC Köln have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Hamburger SV and 1. FC Köln last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 September 2026: Hamburger SV 2-1 1. FC Köln.
Who has won more matches between Hamburger SV and 1. FC Köln?
Hamburger SV have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
1. FC Köln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hamburger SV 66%, 1. FC Köln 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Hamburger SV) and 48% (1. FC Köln). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hamburger SV home games / 1. FC Köln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hamburger SV and 1. FC Köln matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Hamburger SV's games and 52% of 1. FC Köln's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Hamburger SV and 1. FC Köln matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Hamburger SV's matches and 48% of 1. FC Köln's.
Do Hamburger SV and 1. FC Köln matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Hamburger SV's recent matches and 62% of 1. FC Köln's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hamburger SV and 1. FC Köln share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hamburger SV and 1. FC Köln finished level at 1-1 at Volksparkstadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hamburger SV 1.70 xG and 1. FC Köln 0.98 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hamburger SV attack 0.85 / defence 0.99 against 1. FC Köln attack 0.72 / defence 1.20, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hamburger SV 53% | Draw 26% | 1. FC Köln 21%, with Hamburger SV to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hamburger SV 66%, 1. FC Köln 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hamburger SV's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Köln's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hamburger SV 1.49 PPG, 1. FC Köln 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.14 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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