FSV Mainz 05 2-2 VfB Stuttgart – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours VfB Stuttgart (43%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as FSV Mainz 05 face VfB Stuttgart.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FSV Mainz 05 and VfB Stuttgart meet at Mewa Arena in Bundesliga (matchday 25). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 7 March 2026 at 14:30 UK time.
Current Form
FSV Mainz 05's record over their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W L D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, FSV Mainz 05 have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
VfB Stuttgart have collected 2.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W L W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, VfB Stuttgart have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. VfB Stuttgart are 0.50 PPG clear of FSV Mainz 05 over their recent games (2.10 vs 1.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from FSV Mainz 05's last 10 home games and VfB Stuttgart's last 10 away games) — FSV Mainz 05 have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, VfB Stuttgart in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head sample leans to VfB Stuttgart, who have 5 wins from 9 H2H matches compared to 1 for the hosts, with 3 draws.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 26 Oct 2025, ended FSV Mainz 05 1–2 VfB Stuttgart — a VfB Stuttgart win.
The H2H data backs the away side. VfB Stuttgart have won 5 of 9 H2H matches, and at 3.2 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading
FSV Mainz 05 half-time and goal-timing data (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games).
VfB Stuttgart half-time and goal-timing data (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FSV Mainz 05 57% versus VfB Stuttgart 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FSV Mainz 05 52% | VfB Stuttgart 72%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: FSV Mainz 05 surrender their half-time lead 35% of the time, while VfB Stuttgart have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 36% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FSV Mainz 05 1.48 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.836 / defence 0.900 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.416 / defence 1.035. League average goals — home 1.707 / away 1.356. VfB Stuttgart have an above-average attack rating of 1.416, which lifts their away xG to 1.73. Data: built from FSV Mainz 05's last 58 games and VfB Stuttgart's last 58.
Result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 33% | Draw 24% | VfB Stuttgart 43%. Fair-value odds: FSV Mainz 05 3.05 | Draw 4.21 | VfB Stuttgart 2.30. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.48 / 1.73) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, VfB Stuttgart are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VfB Stuttgart if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.21 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (FSV Mainz 05's last 10 home games and VfB Stuttgart's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 9 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FSV Mainz 05 60% (last 10 home games) | VfB Stuttgart 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FSV Mainz 05 vs VfB Stuttgart | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 25 | Venue: Mewa Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 7 March 2026 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 33% | Draw 24% | VfB Stuttgart 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG FSV Mainz 05 1.48 / VfB Stuttgart 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.836 / def 0.900 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.416 / def 1.035 | league avg home 1.707 / away 1.356 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Expected Goals
1.73
VfB Stuttgart xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FSV Mainz 05 vs VfB Stuttgart FAQs
What time does FSV Mainz 05 vs VfB Stuttgart kick off?
FSV Mainz 05 vs VfB Stuttgart kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Saturday 7 March 2026 at Mewa Arena.
What was the final score in FSV Mainz 05 vs VfB Stuttgart?
FSV Mainz 05 2 - 2 VfB Stuttgart.
Where is FSV Mainz 05 vs VfB Stuttgart being played?
The match is being played at Mewa Arena.
What competition is FSV Mainz 05 vs VfB Stuttgart part of?
FSV Mainz 05 vs VfB Stuttgart is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 25) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FSV Mainz 05 vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our statistical model gives FSV Mainz 05 a 33% chance of winning, VfB Stuttgart a 43% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in FSV Mainz 05 vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both FSV Mainz 05 and VfB Stuttgart will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FSV Mainz 05 vs VfB Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from FSV Mainz 05's attack rating (0.84) and VfB Stuttgart's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — VfB Stuttgart's attack (1.42x) against FSV Mainz 05's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.73.
These ratings are built from FSV Mainz 05's last 58 games and VfB Stuttgart's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
33%
3.05
24%
4.21
43%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Total xG
3.21
1.73
VfB Stuttgart xG
3.05
33%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
2.30
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
18%
5.64
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
6%
17.18
10%
10.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.3 | 8.9 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.6 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FSV Mainz 05 vs VfB Stuttgart Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FSV Mainz 05 vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are FSV Mainz 05 and VfB Stuttgart expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for FSV Mainz 05 and 1.73 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for FSV Mainz 05 vs VfB Stuttgart?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FSV Mainz 05 come into this having played 58 games, going 19W 18D 21L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-D.
On the other side, VfB Stuttgart sit at 1.66 PPG from 58 outings (28W 12D 18L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for FSV Mainz 05 against 1.66 for VfB Stuttgart. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
FSV Mainz 05's home form reads 9W 12D 8L across their last 29 home games, a 1.34 PPG return.
Away from home, VfB Stuttgart have taken 1.52 points per game from their last 29 away games (12W 8D 9L).
Attack vs Defence
FSV Mainz 05 are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; VfB Stuttgart are on 1.93 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart in 62%.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FSV Mainz 05
Blended
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
FSV Mainz 05 (Home) vs VfB Stuttgart (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FSV Mainz 05
Blended
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
❓ FSV Mainz 05 vs VfB Stuttgart Form FAQs
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and VfB Stuttgart in coming into this match?
FSV Mainz 05 have gone 19W 18D 21L in their last 58 games (1.29 PPG), while VfB Stuttgart have gone 28W 12D 18L in their last 58 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FSV Mainz 05 at home or VfB Stuttgart away?
VfB Stuttgart's away record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FSV Mainz 05 at home: 1.34 PPG; VfB Stuttgart away: 1.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between FSV Mainz 05 and VfB Stuttgart, the earliest from November 2021. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 7 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfB Stuttgart won FSV Mainz 05 1-4 VfB Stuttgart on 21 May 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FSV Mainz 05 have gone 1W 2D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against VfB Stuttgart — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
FSV Mainz 05
4
Draws
5
VfB Stuttgart
Recent Meetings
❓ FSV Mainz 05 vs VfB Stuttgart H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and VfB Stuttgart?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, FSV Mainz 05 have won 1, VfB Stuttgart have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FSV Mainz 05 and VfB Stuttgart last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 March 2026: FSV Mainz 05 2-2 VfB Stuttgart.
Who has won more matches between FSV Mainz 05 and VfB Stuttgart?
VfB Stuttgart have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 42% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FSV Mainz 05 55%, VfB Stuttgart 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (FSV Mainz 05) and 79% (VfB Stuttgart). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 55% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FSV Mainz 05 have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FSV Mainz 05 home games / VfB Stuttgart away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FSV Mainz 05 vs VfB Stuttgart Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FSV Mainz 05 and VfB Stuttgart matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of FSV Mainz 05's games and 66% of VfB Stuttgart's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FSV Mainz 05 and VfB Stuttgart matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 31% of FSV Mainz 05's matches and 79% of VfB Stuttgart's.
Do FSV Mainz 05 and VfB Stuttgart matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of FSV Mainz 05's recent matches and 79% of VfB Stuttgart's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FSV Mainz 05 and VfB Stuttgart share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Mewa Arena, Regular Season - 25, as FSV Mainz 05 and VfB Stuttgart drew 2-2 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FSV Mainz 05 1.48 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.73 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.84 / defence 0.90 against VfB Stuttgart attack 1.42 / defence 1.03, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FSV Mainz 05 33% | Draw 24% | VfB Stuttgart 43%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FSV Mainz 05 52%, VfB Stuttgart 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FSV Mainz 05 1.29 PPG, VfB Stuttgart 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Bundesliga fixtures — matchday 25
All Bundesliga fixtures →
More German football predictions →