FSV Mainz 05 1-3 Union Berlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FSV Mainz 05 at 53% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin meet at Mewa Arena in Bundesliga (matchday 33). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 19:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
FSV Mainz 05 have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, FSV Mainz 05 have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Union Berlin's record over their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Union Berlin have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in FSV Mainz 05's favour (1.60 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from FSV Mainz 05's last 10 home games and Union Berlin's last 10 away games) — FSV Mainz 05 have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Union Berlin in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Across the 9 H2H matches in our data, Union Berlin have the stronger record — 5 wins to FSV Mainz 05's 0, with 4 draws.
The 9 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 2.9 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 10 Jan 2026, ended FSV Mainz 05 2–2 Union Berlin — a draw.
The H2H data backs the away side. Union Berlin have won 5 of 9 H2H matches, and at 2.9 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading
FSV Mainz 05 half-time and goal-timing data (last 66 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 27 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 37%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Union Berlin half-time and goal-timing data (last 66 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 29 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FSV Mainz 05 59% versus Union Berlin 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FSV Mainz 05 53% | Union Berlin 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FSV Mainz 05 1.73 xG and Union Berlin 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.909 / defence 0.973 | Union Berlin attack 0.743 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.726 / away 1.477. Union Berlin's attack rating of 0.743 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.07. Data: built from FSV Mainz 05's last 66 games and Union Berlin's last 66.
Result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 53% | Draw 24% | Union Berlin 23%. Fair-value odds: FSV Mainz 05 1.89 | Draw 4.21 | Union Berlin 4.29. FSV Mainz 05 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record in our data (5 wins to 0), but FSV Mainz 05 carry stronger current form — do not let the head-to-head record alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is FSV Mainz 05 at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FSV Mainz 05 if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (FSV Mainz 05's last 10 home games and Union Berlin's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.9 goals per game across 9 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FSV Mainz 05 60% (last 10 home games) | Union Berlin 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 33 | Venue: Mewa Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 53% | Draw 24% | Union Berlin 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG FSV Mainz 05 1.73 / Union Berlin 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.909 / def 0.973 | Union Berlin attack 0.743 / def 1.104 | league avg home 1.726 / away 1.477 • Poisson stance: FSV Mainz 05 (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Union Berlin xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin FAQs
What time does FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin kick off?
FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Sunday 10 May 2026 at Mewa Arena.
What was the final score in FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin?
FSV Mainz 05 1 - 3 Union Berlin.
Where is FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin being played?
The match is being played at Mewa Arena.
What competition is FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin part of?
FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 33) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin?
Our statistical model gives FSV Mainz 05 a 53% chance of winning, Union Berlin a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making FSV Mainz 05 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
FSV Mainz 05's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Union Berlin's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.73. Flip it around — Union Berlin's attack (0.74x) against FSV Mainz 05's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from FSV Mainz 05's last 66 games and Union Berlin's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FSV Mainz 05 Win
53%
1.89
24%
4.21
23%
4.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Total xG
2.80
1.07
Union Berlin xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
4.29
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
18%
5.66
Win to Nil
18%
5.49
4%
24.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 11.2 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.7 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for FSV Mainz 05 and 1.07 for Union Berlin, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FSV Mainz 05 come into this having played 66 games, going 23W 20D 23L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-W.
On the other side, Union Berlin sit at 1.12 PPG from 66 outings (18W 20D 28L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for FSV Mainz 05 against 1.12 for Union Berlin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
FSV Mainz 05's home form reads 10W 13D 10L across their last 33 home games, a 1.30 PPG return.
Away from home, Union Berlin have taken 1.00 points per game from their last 33 away games (9W 6D 18L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FSV Mainz 05 are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Union Berlin are on 1.11 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FSV Mainz 05
Current Season
Union Berlin
Current Season
FSV Mainz 05 (Home) vs Union Berlin (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FSV Mainz 05
Current Season
Union Berlin
Current Season
❓ FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin Form FAQs
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin in coming into this match?
FSV Mainz 05 have gone 23W 20D 23L in their last 66 games (1.35 PPG), while Union Berlin have gone 18W 20D 28L in their last 66 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FSV Mainz 05 at home or Union Berlin away?
FSV Mainz 05's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FSV Mainz 05 at home: 1.30 PPG; Union Berlin away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 10 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union Berlin won Union Berlin 4-1 FSV Mainz 05 on 20 Aug 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FSV Mainz 05 have gone 0W 3D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Union Berlin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
FSV Mainz 05
4
Draws
6
Union Berlin
Recent Meetings
❓ FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, FSV Mainz 05 have won 0, Union Berlin have won 6, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 May 2026: FSV Mainz 05 1-3 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FSV Mainz 05 58%, Union Berlin 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (FSV Mainz 05) and 52% (Union Berlin).
On the defensive side: FSV Mainz 05 have failed to score in 27% of games; Union Berlin in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FSV Mainz 05 home games / Union Berlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of FSV Mainz 05's recent matches and 46% of Union Berlin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of FSV Mainz 05's recent games and 52% of Union Berlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of FSV Mainz 05's recent matches and 70% of Union Berlin's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union Berlin cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over FSV Mainz 05.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin beat FSV Mainz 05 1-3 at Mewa Arena, Regular Season - 33, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FSV Mainz 05 1.73 xG and Union Berlin 1.07 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Union Berlin outscored their 1.07 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.91 / defence 0.97 against Union Berlin attack 0.74 / defence 1.10, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FSV Mainz 05 53% | Draw 24% | Union Berlin 23%, with FSV Mainz 05 to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Union Berlin win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FSV Mainz 05 53%, Union Berlin 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Union Berlin's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FSV Mainz 05 1.35 PPG, Union Berlin 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union Berlin win broke the near-deadlock. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Union Berlin (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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