Union Berlin 2-2 1. FC Köln – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Union Berlin at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln meet at Stadion An der Alten Försterei in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 32. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 2 May 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Union Berlin have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Union Berlin's home record at Stadion An der Alten Försterei: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
1. FC Köln's overall Bundesliga record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D D W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
1. FC Köln's away record: 0W 5D 5L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.70 for Union Berlin, 0.80 for 1. FC Köln — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Union Berlin register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, 1. FC Köln in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Across 9 previous meetings, Union Berlin are the stronger side on paper — 6 victories to 1, with 2 draws in between.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Dec 2025, ended 1–0 with Union Berlin winning.
The historical record gives Union Berlin a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Union Berlin — key trading statistics (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
1. FC Köln — key trading statistics (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Union Berlin 55% and 1. FC Köln 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 54% | 1. FC Köln 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.51 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.783 / defence 1.134 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.774 / defence 1.129. League average goals — home 1.703 / away 1.443. Union Berlin's attack strength of 0.783 is below the league average — the 1.51 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 65 Union Berlin games / 31 1. FC Köln games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 42% | Draw 26% | 1. FC Köln 31%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | 1. FC Köln 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union Berlin at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union Berlin if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Union Berlin 80% | 1. FC Köln 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 42% | Draw 26% | 1. FC Köln 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Union Berlin 1.51 / 1. FC Köln 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.783 / def 1.134 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.774 / def 1.129 | league avg home 1.703 / away 1.443 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.27
1. FC Köln xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln kick off?
Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 2 May 2026 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln?
Union Berlin 2 - 2 1. FC Köln.
Where is Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln part of?
Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 42% chance of winning, 1. FC Köln a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln?
Record (9 meetings): Union Berlin 6W | Draws 2 | 1. FC Köln 1W.
What form are Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln in?
Union Berlin (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. 1. FC Köln (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Union Berlin's attack rating (0.78) and 1. FC Köln's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — 1. FC Köln's attack (0.77x) against Union Berlin's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 65/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
42%
2.37
26%
3.79
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
2.77
1.27
1. FC Köln xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
22%
4.51
Win to Nil
12%
8.40
7%
14.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.9 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.9 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.0 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.27 for 1. FC Köln, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Union Berlin's recent record stands at 18W 19D 28L from 65 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five.
1. FC Köln, meanwhile, have gone 25W 17D 23L across 65 games — 1.42 PPG, with D-D-W-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Union Berlin against 1.42 for 1. FC Köln. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Union Berlin have managed 9W 13D 10L from 32 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
1. FC Köln's away record stands at 11W 9D 12L across 32 trips, a 1.31 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Union Berlin are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Köln are on 1.51 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Köln in 65%.
Last 65 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Current Season
1. FC Köln
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 18W 19D 28L in their last 65 games (1.12 PPG), while 1. FC Köln have gone 25W 17D 23L in their last 65 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or 1. FC Köln away?
1. FC Köln's away record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 1.25 PPG; 1. FC Köln away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union Berlin have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against 1. FC Köln — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Union Berlin
3
Draws
1
1. FC Köln
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln?
From 10 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 6, 1. FC Köln have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Union Berlin 2-2 1. FC Köln.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
1. FC Köln see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Berlin 66%, 1. FC Köln 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Union Berlin) and 47% (1. FC Köln).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / 1. FC Köln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play 1. FC Köln?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Union Berlin's games and 56% of 1. FC Köln's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Union Berlin's recent games and 47% of 1. FC Köln's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, 1. FC Köln in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 32, as Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln drew 2-2 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.51 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.27 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.78 / defence 1.13 against 1. FC Köln attack 0.77 / defence 1.13, drawn from 65/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 42% | Draw 26% | 1. FC Köln 31%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 54%, 1. FC Köln 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Köln's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union Berlin 1.12 PPG, 1. FC Köln 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.