Hamburger SV 3-2 SC Freiburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hamburger SV at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hamburger SV vs SC Freiburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hamburger SV host SC Freiburg at Volksparkstadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 10 May 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Hamburger SV — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Volksparkstadion, Hamburger SV have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SC Freiburg have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, SC Freiburg have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. SC Freiburg are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Hamburger SV, 1 for SC Freiburg and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 10 Jan 2026, ended 1–2 with SC Freiburg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Hamburger SV in-play and half-time data (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
SC Freiburg in-play and half-time data (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hamburger SV 65% and SC Freiburg 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Hamburger SV 67% | SC Freiburg 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hamburger SV 1.42 xG and SC Freiburg 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hamburger SV attack 0.754 / defence 0.999 | SC Freiburg attack 0.750 / defence 1.096. League average goals — home 1.720 / away 1.458. Hamburger SV's attack strength of 0.754 is below the league average — the 1.42 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 32 Hamburger SV games / 66 SC Freiburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hamburger SV 45% | Draw 26% | SC Freiburg 29%. Fair-value odds: Hamburger SV 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | SC Freiburg 3.45. Hamburger SV hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hamburger SV at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form SC Freiburg (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hamburger SV offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Hamburger SV 80% | SC Freiburg 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hamburger SV vs SC Freiburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Volksparkstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hamburger SV 45% | Draw 26% | SC Freiburg 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Hamburger SV 1.42 / SC Freiburg 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Hamburger SV attack 0.754 / def 0.999 | SC Freiburg attack 0.750 / def 1.096 | league avg home 1.720 / away 1.458 • Poisson stance: Hamburger SV (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Hamburger SV xG
Expected Goals
1.09
SC Freiburg xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hamburger SV vs SC Freiburg kick off?
Hamburger SV vs SC Freiburg kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 10 May 2026 at Volksparkstadion.
What was the final score in Hamburger SV vs SC Freiburg?
Hamburger SV 3 - 2 SC Freiburg.
Where is Hamburger SV vs SC Freiburg being played?
The match is being played at Volksparkstadion.
What competition is Hamburger SV vs SC Freiburg part of?
Hamburger SV vs SC Freiburg is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hamburger SV vs SC Freiburg?
Our statistical model gives Hamburger SV a 45% chance of winning, SC Freiburg a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Hamburger SV the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hamburger SV vs SC Freiburg?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Hamburger SV and SC Freiburg will score (BTTS).
Will Hamburger SV vs SC Freiburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and SC Freiburg?
Record (1 meetings): Hamburger SV 0W | Draws 0 | SC Freiburg 1W.
What form are Hamburger SV and SC Freiburg in?
Hamburger SV (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. SC Freiburg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Hamburger SV's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against SC Freiburg's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. The same calculation in reverse, SC Freiburg's attack versus Hamburger SV's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hamburger SV Win
45%
2.25
26%
3.78
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Hamburger SV xG
Total xG
2.51
1.09
SC Freiburg xG
2.25
45%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
24%
4.14
Win to Nil
15%
6.70
7%
14.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 8.9 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.6 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.9 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hamburger SV vs SC Freiburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Hamburger SV and SC Freiburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Hamburger SV and 1.09 for SC Freiburg, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Hamburger SV vs SC Freiburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 66 outings, Hamburger SV have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 24W 21D 21L record — D-L-L-L-W across the most recent five.
SC Freiburg's form line: 28W 15D 23L from 66 games, 1.50 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hamburger SV on 1.41 PPG, SC Freiburg on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Hamburger SV have posted 1.58 PPG from 33 outings (13W 13D 7L).
On the road, SC Freiburg have gone 11W 7D 15L from 33 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Hamburger SV are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; SC Freiburg are on 1.42 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hamburger SV have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 66 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hamburger SV
Current Season
SC Freiburg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hamburger SV and SC Freiburg in coming into this match?
Hamburger SV have gone 24W 21D 21L in their last 66 games (1.41 PPG), while SC Freiburg have gone 28W 15D 23L in their last 66 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hamburger SV at home or SC Freiburg away?
Hamburger SV's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hamburger SV at home: 1.58 PPG; SC Freiburg away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hamburger SV and SC Freiburg runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Hamburger SV
0
Draws
1
SC Freiburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and SC Freiburg?
From 2 meetings on record, Hamburger SV have won 1, SC Freiburg have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hamburger SV and SC Freiburg last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Hamburger SV 3-2 SC Freiburg.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
SC Freiburg see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hamburger SV 70%, SC Freiburg 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Hamburger SV) and 54% (SC Freiburg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SC Freiburg in 33%; SC Freiburg in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hamburger SV home games / SC Freiburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hamburger SV play SC Freiburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 70% of Hamburger SV's recent matches and 39% of SC Freiburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hamburger SV vs SC Freiburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Hamburger SV's matches and 54% of SC Freiburg's.
Do Hamburger SV and SC Freiburg tend to score early?
Hamburger SV have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, SC Freiburg in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hamburger SV edge out SC Freiburg 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hamburger SV beat SC Freiburg 3-2 at Volksparkstadion, Regular Season - 33, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hamburger SV 1.42 xG and SC Freiburg 1.09 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Hamburger SV beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SC Freiburg outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hamburger SV attack 0.75 / defence 1.00 against SC Freiburg attack 0.75 / defence 1.10, drawn from 32/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hamburger SV 45% | Draw 26% | SC Freiburg 29%, with Hamburger SV to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hamburger SV 67%, SC Freiburg 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hamburger SV's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
SC Freiburg's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hamburger SV 1.41 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hamburger SV win broke the near-deadlock. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.