FC Augsburg 2-1 FSV Mainz 05 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Augsburg at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
WWK Arena plays host to FC Augsburg versus FSV Mainz 05 in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Saturday 23 September 2023 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Augsburg have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC Augsburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at WWK Arena, FC Augsburg have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — FC Augsburg are significantly better at WWK Arena than their overall form suggests.
FSV Mainz 05's overall Bundesliga record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FSV Mainz 05 have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FSV Mainz 05's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.70 vs 0.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — FC Augsburg have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, FSV Mainz 05 in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: FC Augsburg 1W, FSV Mainz 05 3W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.8 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2023, ended 1–3 with FSV Mainz 05 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
FC Augsburg — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
FSV Mainz 05 — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Augsburg 63% and FSV Mainz 05 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 60% | FSV Mainz 05 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 2.55 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.978 / defence 1.205 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.792 / defence 1.301. League average goals — home 2.007 / away 1.531. FSV Mainz 05 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.301 — this is suppressing FC Augsburg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 FC Augsburg games / 38 FSV Mainz 05 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 60% | Draw 20% | FSV Mainz 05 20%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 1.67 | Draw 5.00 | FSV Mainz 05 5.00. The model has a clear lean to FC Augsburg (60%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 4.01. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 4.01 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (2.55 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Augsburg are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 4.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 76% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 72% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 60% | FSV Mainz 05 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Sep 2023, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 60% | Draw 20% | FSV Mainz 05 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 72% | xG FC Augsburg 2.55 / FSV Mainz 05 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 0.978 / def 1.205 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.792 / def 1.301 | league avg home 2.007 / away 1.531 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.55
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.46
FSV Mainz 05 xG
72%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 kick off?
FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 23 September 2023 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05?
FC Augsburg 2 - 1 FSV Mainz 05.
Where is FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 part of?
FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 60% chance of winning, FSV Mainz 05 a 20% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both FC Augsburg and FSV Mainz 05 will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and FSV Mainz 05?
Record (4 meetings): FC Augsburg 1W | Draws 0 | FSV Mainz 05 3W.
What form are FC Augsburg and FSV Mainz 05 in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. FSV Mainz 05 (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.80 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FC Augsburg's attack at 0.98x the league average against FSV Mainz 05's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 2.55 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FSV Mainz 05's attack (0.79x) against FC Augsburg's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (7.6%), 3-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
60%
1.66
20%
5.03
20%
5.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.3%
Home win
1 – 1
6.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.55
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
4.01
1.46
FSV Mainz 05 xG
1.66
60%
Home win
5.03
20%
Draw
5.05
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.40
28%
BTTS No
3.53
Clean Sheet
23%
4.31
8%
12.83
Win to Nil
14%
7.14
2%
64.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 6.7 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.6 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 7.3 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.6%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and FSV Mainz 05 expected to score?
The model projects 2.55 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.46 for FSV Mainz 05, a combined total of 4.01.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Augsburg's recent record stands at 9W 9D 20L from 38 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for FC Augsburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FSV Mainz 05, meanwhile, have gone 12W 11D 15L across 38 games — 1.24 PPG, with D-L-D-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for FSV Mainz 05, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.95 PPG for FC Augsburg against 1.24 for FSV Mainz 05. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, FC Augsburg have managed 6W 6D 7L from 19 games — 1.26 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FSV Mainz 05's away record stands at 6W 4D 9L across 19 trips, a 1.16 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.97 conceded per game recently; FSV Mainz 05 are on 1.50 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Augsburg have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; FSV Mainz 05 in 66%.
Last 38 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Early Season
FSV Mainz 05
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and FSV Mainz 05 in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 9W 9D 20L in their last 38 games (0.95 PPG), while FSV Mainz 05 have gone 12W 11D 15L in their last 38 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or FSV Mainz 05 away?
FC Augsburg's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.26 PPG; FSV Mainz 05 away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
FSV Mainz 05 go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FSV Mainz 05 won 4-1 on 22 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Augsburg have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FSV Mainz 05 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FC Augsburg
1
Draws
7
FSV Mainz 05
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and FSV Mainz 05?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 2, FSV Mainz 05 have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and FSV Mainz 05 last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when FSV Mainz 05 2-0 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and FSV Mainz 05?
FSV Mainz 05 have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Augsburg see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Augsburg 53%, FSV Mainz 05 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (FC Augsburg) and 68% (FSV Mainz 05). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / FSV Mainz 05 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play FSV Mainz 05?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of FC Augsburg's games and 63% of FSV Mainz 05's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of FC Augsburg's matches and 68% of FSV Mainz 05's.
Do FC Augsburg and FSV Mainz 05 tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, FSV Mainz 05 in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Augsburg edge out FSV Mainz 05 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Augsburg beat FSV Mainz 05 2-1 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 2.55 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.46 xG, a combined 4.01. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.98 / defence 1.21 against FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.79 / defence 1.30, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 60% | Draw 20% | FSV Mainz 05 20%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 60%, FSV Mainz 05 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Augsburg 0.95 PPG, FSV Mainz 05 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Augsburg win broke the near-deadlock. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.