SC Freiburg 2-0 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates SC Freiburg at 53% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

SC Freiburg and FC Augsburg meet at Europa-Park Stadion in Bundesliga (matchday 6). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 1 October 2023 at 17:30 UK time.

Form & Momentum

SC Freiburg have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

SC Freiburg's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.

FC Augsburg's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

FC Augsburg's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 8L across their last 10 road games (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for SC Freiburg, 0.90 for FC Augsburg — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H History

The head-to-head record in our data favours SC Freiburg, who have won 3 of the 3 H2H matches we hold against FC Augsburg — FC Augsburg have 0 wins, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.7 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 28 Jan 2023, ended SC Freiburg 3–1 FC Augsburg — a SC Freiburg win.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both SC Freiburg and goals — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches and an average of 3.7 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.

Trading & In-Play

SC Freiburg — key trading statistics (last 39 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

FC Augsburg — key trading statistics (last 39 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 67%; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Freiburg 49% versus FC Augsburg 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Freiburg 51% | FC Augsburg 62%). Note also that FC Augsburg surrender HT leads in 67% of cases while SC Freiburg recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 43% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 1.94 xG and FC Augsburg 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 0.912 / defence 1.006 | FC Augsburg attack 0.858 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.928 / away 1.453. Data: built from SC Freiburg's last 39 games and FC Augsburg's last 39.

Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 53% | Draw 22% | FC Augsburg 24%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 1.87 | Draw 4.50 | FC Augsburg 4.10. SC Freiburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.94 / 1.25) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is SC Freiburg at 53% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (SC Freiburg 3 wins from 3 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SC Freiburg if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 3.20 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (SC Freiburg's last 10 home games and FC Augsburg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SC Freiburg 50% (last 10 home games) | FC Augsburg 70% (last 10 away games).

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