VfB Stuttgart 3-1 SV Darmstadt 98 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates VfB Stuttgart at 86% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VfB Stuttgart vs SV Darmstadt 98 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
VfB Stuttgart welcome SV Darmstadt 98 to Stuttgart Arena in Bundesliga (matchday 5). Kick-off is Friday 22 September 2023 at 20:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, VfB Stuttgart stand at 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
VfB Stuttgart's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
SV Darmstadt 98 — last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
On the road, SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 3W 0D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
VfB Stuttgart carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Data
VfB Stuttgart trading profile (last 38 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
SV Darmstadt 98 trading profile (last 38 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VfB Stuttgart 68% versus SV Darmstadt 98 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfB Stuttgart 68% | SV Darmstadt 98 50%). Note also that SV Darmstadt 98 surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while VfB Stuttgart recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 3.44 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.349 / defence 0.727 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.715 / defence 1.268. League average goals — home 2.014 / away 1.526. VfB Stuttgart carry an above-average attack rating of 1.349 — their 3.44 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. SV Darmstadt 98's defence rating of 1.268 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing VfB Stuttgart's projected output up. SV Darmstadt 98's attack rating of 0.715 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.79. VfB Stuttgart have a tight defence (rating 0.727), which is pulling SV Darmstadt 98's projected output down. Data: built from VfB Stuttgart's last 38 games and SV Darmstadt 98's last 4.
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 86% | Draw 10% | SV Darmstadt 98 4%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 1.17 | Draw 9.92 | SV Darmstadt 98 22.68. The model has a clear lean to VfB Stuttgart (86%) — a 76pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 79% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 4.24. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 79% — a total xG of 4.24 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is VfB Stuttgart at 86% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 4.24 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 79% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (VfB Stuttgart's last 10 home games and SV Darmstadt 98's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: VfB Stuttgart 50% (last 10 home games) | SV Darmstadt 98 30% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs SV Darmstadt 98 | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 5 | Venue: Stuttgart Arena • Kick-off: Friday 22 September 2023 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 86% | Draw 10% | SV Darmstadt 98 4% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 79% (Under 21%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG VfB Stuttgart 3.44 / SV Darmstadt 98 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.349 / def 0.727 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.715 / def 1.268 | league avg home 2.014 / away 1.526 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (86%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.44
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
0.79
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
54%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ VfB Stuttgart vs SV Darmstadt 98 FAQs
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs SV Darmstadt 98 kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs SV Darmstadt 98 kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Friday 22 September 2023 at Stuttgart Arena.
What was the final score in VfB Stuttgart vs SV Darmstadt 98?
VfB Stuttgart 3 - 1 SV Darmstadt 98.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs SV Darmstadt 98 being played?
The match is being played at Stuttgart Arena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs SV Darmstadt 98 part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs SV Darmstadt 98 is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 5) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 86% chance of winning, SV Darmstadt 98 a 4% chance, and a 10% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and SV Darmstadt 98 will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will VfB Stuttgart vs SV Darmstadt 98 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 79%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from VfB Stuttgart's attack rating (1.35) and SV Darmstadt 98's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 3.44 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SV Darmstadt 98's attack versus VfB Stuttgart's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from VfB Stuttgart's last 38 games and SV Darmstadt 98's last 4 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 3-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (8.6%), 4-0 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
86%
1.17
10%
9.92
4%
22.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.6%
Home win
4 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.44
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
4.24
0.79
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
1.17
86%
Home win
9.92
10%
Draw
22.68
4%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
79%
Over 2.5
1.27
21%
Under 2.5
4.76
61%
Over 3.5
1.64
39%
Under 3.5
2.56
42%
Over 4.5
2.38
58%
Under 4.5
1.72
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
3%
31.34
Win to Nil
39%
2.58
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 8.6 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.8 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 8.5 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 5.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ VfB Stuttgart vs SV Darmstadt 98 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our Poisson model rates 3-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and SV Darmstadt 98 expected to score?
The model projects 3.44 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 0.79 for SV Darmstadt 98, a combined total of 4.24.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 86%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 38 outings, VfB Stuttgart have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 12W 10D 16L record — W-W-L-W-W across the most recent five.
SV Darmstadt 98's form line: 20W 8D 10L from 38 games, 1.79 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-D.
Put side by side, SV Darmstadt 98 are the form team by 0.58 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against VfB Stuttgart.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, VfB Stuttgart have posted 1.53 PPG from their last 19 home games (8W 5D 6L).
On the road, SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 9W 2D 8L from their last 19 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; SV Darmstadt 98 are on 1.45 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Early Season
SV Darmstadt 98
Early Season
VfB Stuttgart (Home) vs SV Darmstadt 98 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
VfB Stuttgart
Early Season
SV Darmstadt 98
Early Season
❓ VfB Stuttgart vs SV Darmstadt 98 Form FAQs
What form are VfB Stuttgart and SV Darmstadt 98 in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 12W 10D 16L in their last 38 games (1.21 PPG), while SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 20W 8D 10L in their last 38 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or SV Darmstadt 98 away?
VfB Stuttgart's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 1.53 PPG; SV Darmstadt 98 away: 1.53 PPG.
Have VfB Stuttgart or SV Darmstadt 98 been keeping clean sheets recently?
VfB Stuttgart have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, SV Darmstadt 98 in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2023. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 17 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
VfB Stuttgart
0
Draws
0
SV Darmstadt 98
Recent Meetings
❓ VfB Stuttgart vs SV Darmstadt 98 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and SV Darmstadt 98?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, VfB Stuttgart have won 2, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and SV Darmstadt 98 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 February 2024: SV Darmstadt 98 1-2 VfB Stuttgart.
Who has won more matches between VfB Stuttgart and SV Darmstadt 98?
VfB Stuttgart have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
SV Darmstadt 98 see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfB Stuttgart 58%, SV Darmstadt 98 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (VfB Stuttgart) and 53% (SV Darmstadt 98). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Darmstadt 98 in 32%; SV Darmstadt 98 in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / SV Darmstadt 98 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ VfB Stuttgart vs SV Darmstadt 98 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in VfB Stuttgart and SV Darmstadt 98 matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of VfB Stuttgart's recent matches and 42% of SV Darmstadt 98's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are VfB Stuttgart and SV Darmstadt 98 matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of VfB Stuttgart's matches and 53% of SV Darmstadt 98's.
Do VfB Stuttgart and SV Darmstadt 98 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of VfB Stuttgart's recent matches and 58% of SV Darmstadt 98's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
VfB Stuttgart cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over SV Darmstadt 98.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfB Stuttgart beat SV Darmstadt 98 3-1 at Stuttgart Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 3.44 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 0.79 xG, a combined 4.24. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 1.35 / defence 0.73 against SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.71 / defence 1.27, drawn from 38/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 86% | Draw 10% | SV Darmstadt 98 4%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 86%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 79%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 61% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 68%, SV Darmstadt 98 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SV Darmstadt 98 arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.21. Form was overturned, with VfB Stuttgart winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.84 average — above their attacking norm. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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