Eintracht Frankfurt 0-0 SC Freiburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Eintracht Frankfurt at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Eintracht Frankfurt host SC Freiburg at Frankfurt Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 24 September 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Eintracht Frankfurt stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Eintracht Frankfurt have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Eintracht Frankfurt have posted 5W 5D 0L at Frankfurt Arena — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Eintracht Frankfurt are significantly better at Frankfurt Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SC Freiburg have recorded 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. SC Freiburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SC Freiburg's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Eintracht Frankfurt 1.40 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Eintracht Frankfurt register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, SC Freiburg in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 2, SC Freiburg 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 May 2023, ended 2–1 with Eintracht Frankfurt winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Eintracht Frankfurt trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
SC Freiburg trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eintracht Frankfurt 68% versus SC Freiburg 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Frankfurt 55% | SC Freiburg 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Frankfurt 1.83 xG and SC Freiburg 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.807 / defence 0.804 | SC Freiburg attack 0.908 / defence 1.125. League average goals — home 2.019 / away 1.464. Data: 38 Eintracht Frankfurt games / 38 SC Freiburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 55% | Draw 24% | SC Freiburg 22%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Frankfurt 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | SC Freiburg 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Eintracht Frankfurt (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Eintracht Frankfurt are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Eintracht Frankfurt 60% | SC Freiburg 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Frankfurt Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Sep 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 55% | Draw 24% | SC Freiburg 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 56% | xG Eintracht Frankfurt 1.83 / SC Freiburg 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.807 / def 0.804 | SC Freiburg attack 0.908 / def 1.125 | league avg home 2.019 / away 1.464 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Frankfurt (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Expected Goals
1.07
SC Freiburg xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg kick off?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 24 September 2023 at Frankfurt Arena.
What was the final score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg?
Eintracht Frankfurt 0 - 0 SC Freiburg.
Where is Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg being played?
The match is being played at Frankfurt Arena.
What competition is Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg part of?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Frankfurt a 55% chance of winning, SC Freiburg a 22% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Frankfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Eintracht Frankfurt and SC Freiburg will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and SC Freiburg?
Record (4 meetings): Eintracht Frankfurt 2W | Draws 1 | SC Freiburg 1W.
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and SC Freiburg in?
Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-D-D. SC Freiburg (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Eintracht Frankfurt's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against SC Freiburg's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.83. The same calculation in reverse, SC Freiburg's attack versus Eintracht Frankfurt's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Frankfurt Win
55%
1.82
24%
4.24
22%
4.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Total xG
2.90
1.07
SC Freiburg xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
4.64
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
16%
6.26
Win to Nil
19%
5.31
3%
29.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 10.8 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Eintracht Frankfurt and SC Freiburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 1.07 for SC Freiburg, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Eintracht Frankfurt come into this having played 38 games, going 14W 14D 10L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-D. It's still early in the season for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, SC Freiburg sit at 1.71 PPG from 38 outings (19W 8D 11L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for SC Freiburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Eintracht Frankfurt on 1.47 PPG, SC Freiburg on 1.71. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Eintracht Frankfurt's home form reads 10W 6D 3L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.89 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.47 PPG overall — Eintracht Frankfurt are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, SC Freiburg have taken 1.47 points per game from 19 outings (8W 4D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eintracht Frankfurt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Eintracht Frankfurt are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; SC Freiburg are on 1.47 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Defensively: SC Freiburg in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Frankfurt
Early Season
SC Freiburg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and SC Freiburg in coming into this match?
Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 14W 14D 10L in their last 38 games (1.47 PPG), while SC Freiburg have gone 19W 8D 11L in their last 38 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Frankfurt at home or SC Freiburg away?
Eintracht Frankfurt's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Frankfurt at home: 1.89 PPG; SC Freiburg away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Eintracht Frankfurt or SC Freiburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Eintracht Frankfurt have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, SC Freiburg in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Jan 2025, when Eintracht Frankfurt won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Eintracht Frankfurt's record when hosting SC Freiburg specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Eintracht Frankfurt
4
Draws
1
SC Freiburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and SC Freiburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 5, SC Freiburg have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Frankfurt and SC Freiburg last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Eintracht Frankfurt 2-0 SC Freiburg.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Frankfurt and SC Freiburg?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eintracht Frankfurt 58%, SC Freiburg 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Eintracht Frankfurt) and 63% (SC Freiburg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Eintracht Frankfurt keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; SC Freiburg in 37%; SC Freiburg in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Frankfurt home games / SC Freiburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Frankfurt play SC Freiburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Eintracht Frankfurt's recent matches and 47% of SC Freiburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Eintracht Frankfurt's matches and 63% of SC Freiburg's.
Do Eintracht Frankfurt and SC Freiburg tend to score early?
Eintracht Frankfurt have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, SC Freiburg in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Eintracht Frankfurt's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Frankfurt Arena, Regular Season - 5, as Eintracht Frankfurt and SC Freiburg drew 0-0 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Frankfurt 1.83 xG and SC Freiburg 1.07 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Eintracht Frankfurt fell 1.8 short of their projected output. SC Freiburg landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.81 / defence 0.80 against SC Freiburg attack 0.91 / defence 1.12, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Frankfurt 55% | Draw 24% | SC Freiburg 22%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Frankfurt 55%, SC Freiburg 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
SC Freiburg's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Eintracht Frankfurt 1.47 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.95 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.