FC Augsburg 1-0 1. FC Heidenheim – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Augsburg at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as FC Augsburg face 1. FC Heidenheim.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
1. FC Heidenheim make the trip to WWK Arena to face FC Augsburg in Bundesliga (matchday 22). The match kicks off on Sunday 15 February 2026 at 14:30 UK time.
Current Form
FC Augsburg's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
FC Augsburg's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
1. FC Heidenheim (all games): 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, 1. FC Heidenheim have posted 1W 1D 8L from their last 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for FC Augsburg against 0.80 for 1. FC Heidenheim. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, FC Augsburg edge it 3 wins to 2, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.6 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 27 Sep 2025, ended FC Augsburg 1–2 1. FC Heidenheim — a 1. FC Heidenheim win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.6 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
FC Augsburg half-time and goal-timing data (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
1. FC Heidenheim half-time and goal-timing data (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Augsburg 51% versus 1. FC Heidenheim 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 56% | 1. FC Heidenheim 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.66 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.831 / defence 1.052 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.910 / defence 1.166. League average goals — home 1.710 / away 1.393. Data: built from FC Augsburg's last 55 games and 1. FC Heidenheim's last 55.
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 44% | Draw 27% | 1. FC Heidenheim 29%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 2.30 | Draw 3.69 | 1. FC Heidenheim 3.41. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.66 / 1.33) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Augsburg at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.99 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (FC Augsburg's last 10 home games and 1. FC Heidenheim's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Augsburg 50% (last 10 home games) | 1. FC Heidenheim 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 22 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 15 February 2026 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 44% | Draw 27% | 1. FC Heidenheim 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG FC Augsburg 1.66 / 1. FC Heidenheim 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 0.831 / def 1.052 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.910 / def 1.166 | league avg home 1.710 / away 1.393 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.33
1. FC Heidenheim xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim FAQs
What time does FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim kick off?
FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Sunday 15 February 2026 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
FC Augsburg 1 - 0 1. FC Heidenheim.
Where is FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim part of?
FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 22) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 44% chance of winning, 1. FC Heidenheim a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both FC Augsburg and 1. FC Heidenheim will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
FC Augsburg's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against 1. FC Heidenheim's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.66. Flip it around — 1. FC Heidenheim's attack (0.91x) against FC Augsburg's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from FC Augsburg's last 55 games and 1. FC Heidenheim's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
44%
2.30
27%
3.69
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
2.99
1.33
1. FC Heidenheim xG
2.30
44%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
26%
3.79
19%
5.24
Win to Nil
11%
8.71
6%
17.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.7 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.1 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.2 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and 1. FC Heidenheim expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.33 for 1. FC Heidenheim, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Augsburg come into this having played 55 games, going 17W 14D 24L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-L.
On the other side, 1. FC Heidenheim sit at 0.73 PPG from 55 outings (10W 10D 35L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-L across their last five.
FC Augsburg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of 1. FC Heidenheim — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
FC Augsburg's home form reads 10W 7D 10L across their last 27 home games, a 1.37 PPG return.
Away from home, 1. FC Heidenheim have taken 0.81 points per game from their last 27 away games (6W 4D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Augsburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Heidenheim are on 0.98 scored and 2.07 conceded.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Blended
1. FC Heidenheim
Blended
FC Augsburg (Home) vs 1. FC Heidenheim (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Augsburg
Blended
1. FC Heidenheim
Blended
❓ FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim Form FAQs
What form are FC Augsburg and 1. FC Heidenheim in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 17W 14D 24L in their last 55 games (1.18 PPG), while 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 10W 10D 35L in their last 55 (0.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or 1. FC Heidenheim away?
FC Augsburg's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.37 PPG; 1. FC Heidenheim away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 15 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: 1. FC Heidenheim won 1. FC Heidenheim 4-0 FC Augsburg on 1 Sep 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Augsburg have gone 3W 0D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against 1. FC Heidenheim — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
FC Augsburg
0
Draws
2
1. FC Heidenheim
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and 1. FC Heidenheim?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Augsburg have won 4, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and 1. FC Heidenheim last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 February 2026: FC Augsburg 1-0 1. FC Heidenheim.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and 1. FC Heidenheim?
FC Augsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Augsburg 52%, 1. FC Heidenheim 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (FC Augsburg) and 63% (1. FC Heidenheim). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; FC Augsburg have failed to score in 33% of games; 1. FC Heidenheim in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / 1. FC Heidenheim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Augsburg and 1. FC Heidenheim matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of FC Augsburg's games and 59% of 1. FC Heidenheim's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FC Augsburg and 1. FC Heidenheim matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of FC Augsburg's matches and 63% of 1. FC Heidenheim's.
Do FC Augsburg and 1. FC Heidenheim matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of FC Augsburg's recent matches and 89% of 1. FC Heidenheim's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Augsburg edge out 1. FC Heidenheim 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Augsburg beat 1. FC Heidenheim 1-0 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.66 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.33 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. 1. FC Heidenheim landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.83 / defence 1.05 against 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.91 / defence 1.17, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 44% | Draw 27% | 1. FC Heidenheim 29%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 56%, 1. FC Heidenheim 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Augsburg arrived the stronger side — 1.18 PPG against 0.73. That form edge translated into the three points. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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