Borussia Dortmund 4-0 FSV Mainz 05 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Borussia Dortmund (60%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Borussia Dortmund face FSV Mainz 05.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Borussia Dortmund welcome FSV Mainz 05 to Signal Iduna Park in Bundesliga (matchday 22). Kick-off is Friday 13 February 2026 at 19:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Borussia Dortmund — last 10 games: 8W 2D 0L, averaging 2.60 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Borussia Dortmund's home record over their last 10 home games: 8W 2D 0L (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Looking at their last 10 matches, FSV Mainz 05 stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FSV Mainz 05 away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Borussia Dortmund carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.60 vs 1.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
Borussia Dortmund hold a clear advantage across the 9 H2H matches in our data, with 5 wins compared to 2 for FSV Mainz 05 and 2 draws.
The 9 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 27 Sep 2025, ended Borussia Dortmund 2–0 FSV Mainz 05 — a Borussia Dortmund win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Borussia Dortmund and goals — 5 wins from 9 H2H matches and an average of 3.0 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
Borussia Dortmund in-play tendencies (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
FSV Mainz 05 in-play tendencies (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 37%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Borussia Dortmund 62% versus FSV Mainz 05 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Dortmund 64% | FSV Mainz 05 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Dortmund 2.26 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.287 / defence 0.865 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.969 / defence 1.069. League average goals — home 1.643 / away 1.427. Borussia Dortmund carry an above-average attack rating of 1.287 — their 2.26 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Borussia Dortmund's last 55 games and FSV Mainz 05's last 55.
Result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 60% | Draw 22% | FSV Mainz 05 18%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Dortmund 1.66 | Draw 4.59 | FSV Mainz 05 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Borussia Dortmund (60%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (2.26 / 1.20) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Borussia Dortmund at 60% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.46 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Borussia Dortmund's last 10 home games and FSV Mainz 05's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 9 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Borussia Dortmund 40% (last 10 home games) | FSV Mainz 05 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Dortmund vs FSV Mainz 05 | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 22 | Venue: Signal Iduna Park • Kick-off: Friday 13 February 2026 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 60% | Draw 22% | FSV Mainz 05 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% (Under 33%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG Borussia Dortmund 2.26 / FSV Mainz 05 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.287 / def 0.865 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.969 / def 1.069 | league avg home 1.643 / away 1.427 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.26
Borussia Dortmund xG
Expected Goals
1.20
FSV Mainz 05 xG
64%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Borussia Dortmund vs FSV Mainz 05 FAQs
What time does Borussia Dortmund vs FSV Mainz 05 kick off?
Borussia Dortmund vs FSV Mainz 05 kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Friday 13 February 2026 at Signal Iduna Park.
What was the final score in Borussia Dortmund vs FSV Mainz 05?
Borussia Dortmund 4 - 0 FSV Mainz 05.
Where is Borussia Dortmund vs FSV Mainz 05 being played?
The match is being played at Signal Iduna Park.
What competition is Borussia Dortmund vs FSV Mainz 05 part of?
Borussia Dortmund vs FSV Mainz 05 is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 22) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Dortmund vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Dortmund a 60% chance of winning, FSV Mainz 05 a 18% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Dortmund vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Borussia Dortmund and FSV Mainz 05 will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Borussia Dortmund vs FSV Mainz 05 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Borussia Dortmund's attacking strength (1.29x league average) is weighed against FSV Mainz 05's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.26. The same calculation in reverse, FSV Mainz 05's attack versus Borussia Dortmund's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Borussia Dortmund's last 55 games and FSV Mainz 05's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
60%
1.66
22%
4.59
18%
5.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
2 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.26
Borussia Dortmund xG
Total xG
3.46
1.20
FSV Mainz 05 xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.59
22%
Draw
5.56
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.75
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
10%
9.60
Win to Nil
18%
5.50
2%
53.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 8.5 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 7.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Borussia Dortmund vs FSV Mainz 05 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Dortmund vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Borussia Dortmund and FSV Mainz 05 expected to score?
The model projects 2.26 expected goals for Borussia Dortmund and 1.20 for FSV Mainz 05, a combined total of 3.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Dortmund vs FSV Mainz 05?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Borussia Dortmund come into this having played 55 games, going 31W 12D 12L for 1.91 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, FSV Mainz 05 sit at 1.33 PPG from 55 outings (19W 16D 20L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five.
Borussia Dortmund carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of FSV Mainz 05 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Borussia Dortmund's home form reads 19W 5D 3L across their last 27 home games, a 2.30 PPG return.
Away from home, FSV Mainz 05 have taken 1.30 points per game from their last 27 away games (10W 5D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Dortmund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Borussia Dortmund are averaging 2.07 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; FSV Mainz 05 are on 1.45 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Dortmund have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
FSV Mainz 05
Blended
Borussia Dortmund (Home) vs FSV Mainz 05 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
FSV Mainz 05
Blended
❓ Borussia Dortmund vs FSV Mainz 05 Form FAQs
What form are Borussia Dortmund and FSV Mainz 05 in coming into this match?
Borussia Dortmund have gone 31W 12D 12L in their last 55 games (1.91 PPG), while FSV Mainz 05 have gone 19W 16D 20L in their last 55 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Dortmund at home or FSV Mainz 05 away?
Borussia Dortmund's home record (2.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Dortmund at home: 2.30 PPG; FSV Mainz 05 away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Borussia Dortmund or FSV Mainz 05 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Borussia Dortmund have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, FSV Mainz 05 in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from October 2021. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 13 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Borussia Dortmund have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 13 Feb 2026, when Borussia Dortmund won Borussia Dortmund 4-0 FSV Mainz 05.
Borussia Dortmund's record when hosting FSV Mainz 05 specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Borussia Dortmund
2
Draws
2
FSV Mainz 05
Recent Meetings
❓ Borussia Dortmund vs FSV Mainz 05 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and FSV Mainz 05?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Borussia Dortmund have won 6, FSV Mainz 05 have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Dortmund and FSV Mainz 05 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 February 2026: Borussia Dortmund 4-0 FSV Mainz 05.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Dortmund and FSV Mainz 05?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 63% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Dortmund 56%, FSV Mainz 05 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Borussia Dortmund and 74% for FSV Mainz 05. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Borussia Dortmund keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; FSV Mainz 05 in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Dortmund home games / FSV Mainz 05 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Borussia Dortmund vs FSV Mainz 05 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Borussia Dortmund and FSV Mainz 05 matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Borussia Dortmund's games and 59% of FSV Mainz 05's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Borussia Dortmund and FSV Mainz 05 matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Borussia Dortmund's matches and 74% of FSV Mainz 05's.
Do Borussia Dortmund and FSV Mainz 05 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 85% of Borussia Dortmund's recent matches and 89% of FSV Mainz 05's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Borussia Dortmund run riot with a 4-0 hammering of FSV Mainz 05.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Dortmund beat FSV Mainz 05 4-0 at Signal Iduna Park, Regular Season - 22, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Dortmund 2.26 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.20 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Borussia Dortmund beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FSV Mainz 05 landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Dortmund attack 1.29 / defence 0.86 against FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.97 / defence 1.07, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Dortmund 60% | Draw 22% | FSV Mainz 05 18%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Dortmund 64%, FSV Mainz 05 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.33. Form held, and they took the win. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.44 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.63 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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