FC St. Pauli 2-2 Hamburger SV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC St. Pauli at 64% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC St. Pauli vs Hamburger SV encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
FC St. Pauli welcome Hamburger SV to Millerntor-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 15). Kick-off is Friday 1 December 2023 at 17:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, FC St. Pauli stand at 7W 3D 0L — 2.40 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
FC St. Pauli at home: 5W 5D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Hamburger SV — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Hamburger SV have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
FC St. Pauli are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.70 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of FC St. Pauli's games and 70% of Hamburger SV's (from FC St. Pauli's last 10 home games and Hamburger SV's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for FC St. Pauli, 2 for Hamburger SV and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.5 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 21 Apr 2023, ended FC St. Pauli 3–4 Hamburger SV — a Hamburger SV win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
FC St. Pauli in-play tendencies (last 48 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Hamburger SV in-play tendencies (last 48 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC St. Pauli 54% versus Hamburger SV 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC St. Pauli 54% | Hamburger SV 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC St. Pauli 2.25 xG and Hamburger SV 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC St. Pauli attack 1.107 / defence 0.674 | Hamburger SV attack 1.058 / defence 1.225. League average goals — home 1.658 / away 1.415. Hamburger SV's defence rating of 1.225 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing FC St. Pauli's projected output up. FC St. Pauli have a tight defence (rating 0.674), which is pulling Hamburger SV's projected output down. Data: built from FC St. Pauli's last 48 games and Hamburger SV's last 48.
Result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 64% | Draw 21% | Hamburger SV 15%. Fair-value odds: FC St. Pauli 1.55 | Draw 4.78 | Hamburger SV 6.79. The model has a clear lean to FC St. Pauli (64%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC St. Pauli as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.26 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (FC St. Pauli's last 10 home games and Hamburger SV's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC St. Pauli 60% (last 10 home games) | Hamburger SV 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC St. Pauli vs Hamburger SV | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 15 | Venue: Millerntor-Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 1 December 2023 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 64% | Draw 21% | Hamburger SV 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG FC St. Pauli 2.25 / Hamburger SV 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: FC St. Pauli attack 1.107 / def 0.674 | Hamburger SV attack 1.058 / def 1.225 | league avg home 1.658 / away 1.415 • Poisson stance: FC St. Pauli (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.25
FC St. Pauli xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Hamburger SV xG
58%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC St. Pauli vs Hamburger SV FAQs
What time does FC St. Pauli vs Hamburger SV kick off?
FC St. Pauli vs Hamburger SV kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Friday 1 December 2023 at Millerntor-Stadion.
What was the final score in FC St. Pauli vs Hamburger SV?
FC St. Pauli 2 - 2 Hamburger SV.
Where is FC St. Pauli vs Hamburger SV being played?
The match is being played at Millerntor-Stadion.
What competition is FC St. Pauli vs Hamburger SV part of?
FC St. Pauli vs Hamburger SV is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 15) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC St. Pauli vs Hamburger SV?
Our statistical model gives FC St. Pauli a 64% chance of winning, Hamburger SV a 15% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making FC St. Pauli the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC St. Pauli vs Hamburger SV?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both FC St. Pauli and Hamburger SV will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FC St. Pauli vs Hamburger SV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC St. Pauli's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Hamburger SV's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.25. The same calculation in reverse, Hamburger SV's attack versus FC St. Pauli's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FC St. Pauli's last 48 games and Hamburger SV's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC St. Pauli Win
64%
1.55
21%
4.78
15%
6.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.25
FC St. Pauli xG
Total xG
3.26
1.01
Hamburger SV xG
1.55
64%
Home win
4.78
21%
Draw
6.79
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
11%
9.47
Win to Nil
23%
4.26
2%
64.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC St. Pauli vs Hamburger SV Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC St. Pauli vs Hamburger SV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are FC St. Pauli and Hamburger SV expected to score?
The model projects 2.25 expected goals for FC St. Pauli and 1.01 for Hamburger SV, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for FC St. Pauli vs Hamburger SV?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC St. Pauli come into this having played 48 games, going 24W 16D 8L for 1.83 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-W.
On the other side, Hamburger SV sit at 1.88 PPG from 48 outings (27W 9D 12L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC St. Pauli on 1.83 PPG, Hamburger SV on 1.88. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
FC St. Pauli's home form reads 13W 10D 1L across their last 24 home games, a 2.04 PPG return.
Away from home, Hamburger SV have taken 1.38 points per game from their last 24 away games (9W 6D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.88 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hamburger SV's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC St. Pauli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC St. Pauli are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Hamburger SV are on 2.02 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hamburger SV in 60%.
Defensively: FC St. Pauli have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC St. Pauli
Blended
Hamburger SV
Blended
FC St. Pauli (Home) vs Hamburger SV (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC St. Pauli
Blended
Hamburger SV
Blended
❓ FC St. Pauli vs Hamburger SV Form FAQs
What form are FC St. Pauli and Hamburger SV in coming into this match?
FC St. Pauli have gone 24W 16D 8L in their last 48 games (1.83 PPG), while Hamburger SV have gone 27W 9D 12L in their last 48 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC St. Pauli at home or Hamburger SV away?
FC St. Pauli's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC St. Pauli at home: 2.04 PPG; Hamburger SV away: 1.38 PPG.
Have FC St. Pauli or Hamburger SV been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC St. Pauli have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Hamburger SV in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. They cover more than one competition — 2. Bundesliga, Bundesliga. The most recent was on 23 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 14 Oct 2022, when FC St. Pauli won FC St. Pauli 3-0 Hamburger SV.
FC St. Pauli's record when hosting Hamburger SV specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
FC St. Pauli
2
Draws
3
Hamburger SV
Recent Meetings
❓ FC St. Pauli vs Hamburger SV H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and Hamburger SV?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, FC St. Pauli have won 3, Hamburger SV have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC St. Pauli and Hamburger SV last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 January 2026: FC St. Pauli 0-0 Hamburger SV.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC St. Pauli see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC St. Pauli 50%, Hamburger SV 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (FC St. Pauli) and 62% (Hamburger SV).
On the defensive side: FC St. Pauli keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC St. Pauli home games / Hamburger SV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC St. Pauli vs Hamburger SV Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC St. Pauli and Hamburger SV matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of FC St. Pauli's games and 62% of Hamburger SV's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FC St. Pauli and Hamburger SV matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of FC St. Pauli's recent games and 62% of Hamburger SV's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC St. Pauli and Hamburger SV matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 58% of FC St. Pauli's recent matches and 83% of Hamburger SV's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC St. Pauli and Hamburger SV share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Millerntor-Stadion, Regular Season - 15, as FC St. Pauli and Hamburger SV drew 2-2 in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC St. Pauli 2.25 xG and Hamburger SV 1.01 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Hamburger SV outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC St. Pauli attack 1.11 / defence 0.67 against Hamburger SV attack 1.06 / defence 1.23, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC St. Pauli 64% | Draw 21% | Hamburger SV 15%, with FC St. Pauli to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC St. Pauli 54%, Hamburger SV 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Hamburger SV's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC St. Pauli 1.83 PPG, Hamburger SV 1.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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