Hamburger SV 2-1 Eintracht Braunschweig – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hamburger SV at 79% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hamburger SV vs Eintracht Braunschweig encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 14 as Hamburger SV welcome Eintracht Braunschweig to Volksparkstadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 24 November 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Hamburger SV have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Hamburger SV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hamburger SV at Volksparkstadion this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Volksparkstadion. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Hamburger SV are significantly better at Volksparkstadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Eintracht Braunschweig stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Braunschweig, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
Hamburger SV carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.20 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Hamburger SV, 0 for Eintracht Braunschweig and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Jan 2023, ended 4–2 with Hamburger SV winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Hamburger SV in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Eintracht Braunschweig in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hamburger SV 60% versus Eintracht Braunschweig 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hamburger SV 62% | Eintracht Braunschweig 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hamburger SV 2.45 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 0.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hamburger SV attack 1.248 / defence 0.672 | Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.576 / defence 1.217. League average goals — home 1.612 / away 1.375. Eintracht Braunschweig bring a strong defensive rating of 1.217 — this is suppressing Hamburger SV's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Hamburger SV's defence rating of 0.672 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 47 Hamburger SV games / 47 Eintracht Braunschweig games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hamburger SV 79% | Draw 16% | Eintracht Braunschweig 5%. Fair-value odds: Hamburger SV 1.27 | Draw 6.25 | Eintracht Braunschweig 20.00. The model has a clear lean to Hamburger SV (79%) — a 74pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hamburger SV at 79% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 2.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates are neutral: Hamburger SV 50% | Eintracht Braunschweig 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hamburger SV vs Eintracht Braunschweig | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Volksparkstadion • Kick-off: Friday 24 Nov 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hamburger SV 79% | Draw 16% | Eintracht Braunschweig 5% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 38% | xG Hamburger SV 2.45 / Eintracht Braunschweig 0.53 • Poisson strength factors: Hamburger SV attack 1.248 / def 0.672 | Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.576 / def 1.217 | league avg home 1.612 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: Hamburger SV (79%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.45
Hamburger SV xG
Expected Goals
0.53
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
38%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hamburger SV vs Eintracht Braunschweig kick off?
Hamburger SV vs Eintracht Braunschweig kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 24 November 2023 at Volksparkstadion.
What was the final score in Hamburger SV vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Hamburger SV 2 - 1 Eintracht Braunschweig.
Where is Hamburger SV vs Eintracht Braunschweig being played?
The match is being played at Volksparkstadion.
What competition is Hamburger SV vs Eintracht Braunschweig part of?
Hamburger SV vs Eintracht Braunschweig is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hamburger SV vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our statistical model gives Hamburger SV a 79% chance of winning, Eintracht Braunschweig a 5% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Hamburger SV the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hamburger SV vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Hamburger SV and Eintracht Braunschweig will score (BTTS).
Will Hamburger SV vs Eintracht Braunschweig have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and Eintracht Braunschweig?
Record (2 meetings): Hamburger SV 2W | Draws 0 | Eintracht Braunschweig 0W.
What form are Hamburger SV and Eintracht Braunschweig in?
Hamburger SV (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Eintracht Braunschweig (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Hamburger SV's attack rating (1.25) and Eintracht Braunschweig's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 2.45 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Eintracht Braunschweig's attack versus Hamburger SV's defence, projects 0.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 3-0 (12.4%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hamburger SV Win
79%
1.27
16%
6.40
5%
18.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
3 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.45
Hamburger SV xG
Total xG
2.98
0.53
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
1.27
79%
Home win
6.40
16%
Draw
18.38
5%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.60
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
59%
1.70
9%
11.58
Win to Nil
46%
2.16
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 12.4 | 6.6 | 1.8 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 2 | 15.2 | 8.1 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 12.4 | 6.6 | 1.8 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 7.6 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hamburger SV vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Hamburger SV and Eintracht Braunschweig expected to score?
The model projects 2.45 expected goals for Hamburger SV and 0.53 for Eintracht Braunschweig, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Hamburger SV vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 79%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hamburger SV's recent record stands at 26W 9D 12L from 47 games, a 1.85 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Hamburger SV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Eintracht Braunschweig, meanwhile, have gone 11W 11D 25L across 47 games — 0.94 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Eintracht Braunschweig is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hamburger SV by 0.91 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Eintracht Braunschweig heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Hamburger SV have managed 17W 3D 3L from 23 games — 2.35 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.85 PPG overall — Hamburger SV are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Eintracht Braunschweig's away record stands at 2W 6D 15L across 23 trips, a 0.52 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.94 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Eintracht Braunschweig's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hamburger SV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hamburger SV are averaging 2.02 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Braunschweig are on 1.11 scored and 1.81 conceded.
Last 47 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hamburger SV
Blended
Eintracht Braunschweig
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hamburger SV and Eintracht Braunschweig in coming into this match?
Hamburger SV have gone 26W 9D 12L in their last 47 games (1.85 PPG), while Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 11W 11D 25L in their last 47 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hamburger SV at home or Eintracht Braunschweig away?
Hamburger SV's home record (2.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hamburger SV at home: 2.35 PPG; Eintracht Braunschweig away: 0.52 PPG.
Have Hamburger SV or Eintracht Braunschweig been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hamburger SV have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Eintracht Braunschweig in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hamburger SV and Eintracht Braunschweig runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Eintracht Braunschweig have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Apr 2024, when Hamburger SV won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hamburger SV's record when hosting Eintracht Braunschweig specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Hamburger SV
0
Draws
2
Eintracht Braunschweig
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and Eintracht Braunschweig?
From 6 meetings on record, Hamburger SV have won 4, Eintracht Braunschweig have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hamburger SV and Eintracht Braunschweig last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2025, when Hamburger SV 2-4 Eintracht Braunschweig.
Who has won more matches between Hamburger SV and Eintracht Braunschweig?
Hamburger SV have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 65% of the time.
Eintracht Braunschweig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hamburger SV 56%, Eintracht Braunschweig 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Hamburger SV and 61% for Eintracht Braunschweig. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hamburger SV keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Eintracht Braunschweig in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hamburger SV home games / Eintracht Braunschweig away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hamburger SV play Eintracht Braunschweig?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Hamburger SV's games and 61% of Eintracht Braunschweig's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hamburger SV vs Eintracht Braunschweig usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Hamburger SV's matches and 61% of Eintracht Braunschweig's.
Do Hamburger SV and Eintracht Braunschweig tend to score early?
Hamburger SV have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Eintracht Braunschweig in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hamburger SV edge out Eintracht Braunschweig 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hamburger SV beat Eintracht Braunschweig 2-1 at Volksparkstadion, Regular Season - 14, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hamburger SV 2.45 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 0.53 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hamburger SV attack 1.25 / defence 0.67 against Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.58 / defence 1.22, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hamburger SV 79% | Draw 16% | Eintracht Braunschweig 5%, with Hamburger SV to win its most likely call at 79%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hamburger SV 62%, Eintracht Braunschweig 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hamburger SV's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hamburger SV arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.