Hertha BSC 5-1 SV Elversberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hertha BSC at 42%, yet in-form SV Elversberg provide a compelling counter-argument — this Hertha BSC vs SV Elversberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hertha BSC host SV Elversberg at Olympiastadion Berlin in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 15). Kick-off is Sunday 3 December 2023 at 12:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Hertha BSC stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Hertha BSC's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
SV Elversberg — last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, SV Elversberg have posted 4W 2D 1L from their last 7 away outings — 2.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.71 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour SV Elversberg — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Hertha BSC's games and 71% of SV Elversberg's (from Hertha BSC's last 10 home games and SV Elversberg's last 7 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Hertha BSC in-play and half-time data (last 14 games, 6 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 64% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
SV Elversberg in-play and half-time data (last 14 games, 6 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hertha BSC 57% and SV Elversberg 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Hertha BSC 79% | SV Elversberg 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hertha BSC 1.61 xG and SV Elversberg 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hertha BSC attack 1.131 / defence 1.006 | SV Elversberg attack 0.972 / defence 0.849. League average goals — home 1.678 / away 1.441. Data: built from Hertha BSC's last 14 games and SV Elversberg's last 14.
Result probabilities: Hertha BSC 42% | Draw 26% | SV Elversberg 33%. Fair-value odds: Hertha BSC 2.40 | Draw 3.92 | SV Elversberg 3.05. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.61 / 1.41) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hertha BSC are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form SV Elversberg (2.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hertha BSC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Hertha BSC's last 10 home games and SV Elversberg's last 7 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hertha BSC 60% (last 10 home games) | SV Elversberg 71% (last 7 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hertha BSC vs SV Elversberg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 15 | Venue: Olympiastadion Berlin • Kick-off: Sunday 3 December 2023 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hertha BSC 42% | Draw 26% | SV Elversberg 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Hertha BSC 1.61 / SV Elversberg 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Hertha BSC attack 1.131 / def 1.006 | SV Elversberg attack 0.972 / def 0.849 | league avg home 1.678 / away 1.441 • Poisson stance: Hertha BSC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Hertha BSC xG
Expected Goals
1.41
SV Elversberg xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hertha BSC vs SV Elversberg FAQs
What time does Hertha BSC vs SV Elversberg kick off?
Hertha BSC vs SV Elversberg kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Sunday 3 December 2023 at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What was the final score in Hertha BSC vs SV Elversberg?
Hertha BSC 5 - 1 SV Elversberg.
Where is Hertha BSC vs SV Elversberg being played?
The match is being played at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What competition is Hertha BSC vs SV Elversberg part of?
Hertha BSC vs SV Elversberg is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 15) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hertha BSC vs SV Elversberg?
Our statistical model gives Hertha BSC a 42% chance of winning, SV Elversberg a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Hertha BSC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hertha BSC vs SV Elversberg?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Hertha BSC and SV Elversberg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Hertha BSC vs SV Elversberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Hertha BSC's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against SV Elversberg's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. The same calculation in reverse, SV Elversberg's attack versus Hertha BSC's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Hertha BSC's last 14 games and SV Elversberg's last 14 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hertha BSC Win
42%
2.40
26%
3.92
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Hertha BSC xG
Total xG
3.02
1.41
SV Elversberg xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
24%
4.09
20%
5.00
Win to Nil
10%
9.82
7%
15.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.9 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.1 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.9 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hertha BSC vs SV Elversberg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hertha BSC vs SV Elversberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Hertha BSC and SV Elversberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Hertha BSC and 1.41 for SV Elversberg, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Hertha BSC vs SV Elversberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hertha BSC's recent record stands at 5W 3D 6L from 14 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-D in the last five.
SV Elversberg, meanwhile, have gone 7W 3D 4L across 14 games — 1.71 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours SV Elversberg by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hertha BSC heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Hertha BSC have managed 3W 1D 2L from their last 6 home games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SV Elversberg's away record stands at 4W 1D 1L across their last 6 away games, a 2.17 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.71 PPG overall record — SV Elversberg travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Elversberg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hertha BSC are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; SV Elversberg are on 1.64 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SV Elversberg in 64%.
Last 14 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hertha BSC
Blended
SV Elversberg
Blended
Hertha BSC (Home) vs SV Elversberg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hertha BSC
Blended
SV Elversberg
Blended
❓ Hertha BSC vs SV Elversberg Form FAQs
What form are Hertha BSC and SV Elversberg in coming into this match?
Hertha BSC have gone 5W 3D 6L in their last 14 games (1.29 PPG), while SV Elversberg have gone 7W 3D 4L in their last 14 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hertha BSC at home or SV Elversberg away?
SV Elversberg's away record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hertha BSC at home: 1.67 PPG; SV Elversberg away: 2.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2023. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was on 7 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 3 Dec 2023, when Hertha BSC won Hertha BSC 5-1 SV Elversberg.
Hertha BSC's record when hosting SV Elversberg specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Hertha BSC
0
Draws
4
SV Elversberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Hertha BSC vs SV Elversberg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and SV Elversberg?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Hertha BSC have won 2, SV Elversberg have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hertha BSC and SV Elversberg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 February 2026: SV Elversberg 0-3 Hertha BSC.
Who has won more matches between Hertha BSC and SV Elversberg?
SV Elversberg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
SV Elversberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hertha BSC 50%, SV Elversberg 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Hertha BSC and 50% for SV Elversberg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hertha BSC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; SV Elversberg in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hertha BSC home games / SV Elversberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hertha BSC vs SV Elversberg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hertha BSC and SV Elversberg matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Hertha BSC's games and 67% of SV Elversberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Hertha BSC and SV Elversberg matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Hertha BSC's matches and 50% of SV Elversberg's.
Do Hertha BSC and SV Elversberg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Hertha BSC's recent matches and 83% of SV Elversberg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hertha BSC run riot with a 5-1 hammering of SV Elversberg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hertha BSC beat SV Elversberg 5-1 at Olympiastadion Berlin, Regular Season - 15, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hertha BSC 1.61 xG and SV Elversberg 1.41 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Hertha BSC beat their projection by 3.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hertha BSC attack 1.13 / defence 1.01 against SV Elversberg attack 0.97 / defence 0.85, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hertha BSC 42% | Draw 26% | SV Elversberg 33%, with Hertha BSC to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hertha BSC 79%, SV Elversberg 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hertha BSC's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
SV Elversberg's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SV Elversberg arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.29. Form was overturned, with Hertha BSC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.33 average — above their attacking norm. SV Elversberg (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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