Hamburger SV 1-2 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hamburger SV at 65%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Volksparkstadion plays host to Hamburger SV versus SC Paderborn 07 in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Saturday 9 December 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Hamburger SV (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hamburger SV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hamburger SV's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at Volksparkstadion this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Volksparkstadion. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Hamburger SV are significantly better at Volksparkstadion than their overall form suggests.
SC Paderborn 07's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Paderborn 07 away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Hamburger SV against 1.70 for SC Paderborn 07. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Hamburger SV 2W, SC Paderborn 07 1W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.8 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Hamburger SV goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
SC Paderborn 07 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hamburger SV 61% and SC Paderborn 07 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Hamburger SV 63% | SC Paderborn 07 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hamburger SV 2.23 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hamburger SV attack 1.207 / defence 0.685 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.018 / defence 1.078. League average goals — home 1.712 / away 1.462. Hamburger SV's defence rating of 0.685 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 49 Hamburger SV games / 49 SC Paderborn 07 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hamburger SV 65% | Draw 19% | SC Paderborn 07 16%. Fair-value odds: Hamburger SV 1.54 | Draw 5.26 | SC Paderborn 07 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Hamburger SV (65%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hamburger SV as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.25 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hamburger SV 50% | SC Paderborn 07 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Volksparkstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Dec 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hamburger SV 65% | Draw 19% | SC Paderborn 07 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 57% | xG Hamburger SV 2.23 / SC Paderborn 07 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Hamburger SV attack 1.207 / def 0.685 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.018 / def 1.078 | league avg home 1.712 / away 1.462 • Poisson stance: Hamburger SV (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.23
Hamburger SV xG
Expected Goals
1.02
SC Paderborn 07 xG
57%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07 kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 9 December 2023 at Volksparkstadion.
What was the final score in Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07?
Hamburger SV 1 - 2 SC Paderborn 07.
Where is Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at Volksparkstadion.
What competition is Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives Hamburger SV a 65% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 16% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Hamburger SV the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Hamburger SV and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and SC Paderborn 07?
Record (4 meetings): Hamburger SV 2W | Draws 1 | SC Paderborn 07 1W.
What form are Hamburger SV and SC Paderborn 07 in?
Hamburger SV (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Hamburger SV's attack rating (1.21) and SC Paderborn 07's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 2.23 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SC Paderborn 07's attack (1.02x) against Hamburger SV's defence (0.69x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hamburger SV Win
65%
1.55
19%
5.19
16%
6.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.23
Hamburger SV xG
Total xG
3.25
1.02
SC Paderborn 07 xG
1.55
65%
Home win
5.19
19%
Draw
6.23
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
11%
9.28
Win to Nil
23%
4.28
2%
57.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.7 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 7.3 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Hamburger SV and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 2.23 expected goals for Hamburger SV and 1.02 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hamburger SV's recent record stands at 27W 10D 12L from 49 games, a 1.86 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Hamburger SV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Paderborn 07, meanwhile, have gone 22W 10D 17L across 49 games — 1.55 PPG, with L-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for SC Paderborn 07 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.86 PPG for Hamburger SV against 1.55 for SC Paderborn 07. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Hamburger SV have managed 18W 3D 3L from 24 games — 2.38 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.86 PPG overall — Hamburger SV are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
SC Paderborn 07's away record stands at 7W 8D 9L across 24 trips, a 1.21 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hamburger SV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Hamburger SV are averaging 2.02 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 1.86 scored and 1.45 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Hamburger SV have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; SC Paderborn 07 in 63%.
Last 49 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hamburger SV
Blended
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hamburger SV and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
Hamburger SV have gone 27W 10D 12L in their last 49 games (1.86 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 22W 10D 17L in their last 49 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hamburger SV at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
Hamburger SV's home record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hamburger SV at home: 2.38 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Hamburger SV or SC Paderborn 07 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hamburger SV have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, SC Paderborn 07 in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hamburger SV have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against SC Paderborn 07 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Hamburger SV
2
Draws
4
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and SC Paderborn 07?
From 8 meetings on record, Hamburger SV have won 2, SC Paderborn 07 have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hamburger SV and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2025, when SC Paderborn 07 2-0 Hamburger SV.
Who has won more matches between Hamburger SV and SC Paderborn 07?
SC Paderborn 07 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hamburger SV 58%, SC Paderborn 07 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Hamburger SV and 71% for SC Paderborn 07. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hamburger SV keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hamburger SV home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hamburger SV play SC Paderborn 07?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Hamburger SV's games and 62% of SC Paderborn 07's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Hamburger SV's matches and 71% of SC Paderborn 07's.
Do Hamburger SV and SC Paderborn 07 tend to score early?
Hamburger SV have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SC Paderborn 07 defy the odds to beat Hamburger SV 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Paderborn 07 beat Hamburger SV 1-2 at Volksparkstadion, Regular Season - 16, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hamburger SV 2.23 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.02 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Hamburger SV fell 1.2 short of their projected output. SC Paderborn 07 outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hamburger SV attack 1.21 / defence 0.69 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.02 / defence 1.08, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hamburger SV 65% | Draw 19% | SC Paderborn 07 16%, with Hamburger SV to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a SC Paderborn 07 win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hamburger SV 63%, SC Paderborn 07 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hamburger SV's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hamburger SV 1.86 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Paderborn 07 win broke the near-deadlock. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.