Hansa Rostock 2-3 FC St. Pauli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC St. Pauli at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hansa Rostock vs FC St. Pauli encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees FC St. Pauli travel to Ostseestadion to take on Hansa Rostock. The game is scheduled for Saturday 25 November 2023, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hansa Rostock stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Hansa Rostock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hansa Rostock at Ostseestadion this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Ostseestadion. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Hansa Rostock are significantly better at Ostseestadion than their overall form suggests.
FC St. Pauli — All Games: 6W 4D 0L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC St. Pauli's form when playing away from home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour FC St. Pauli — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Hansa Rostock, 2 for FC St. Pauli and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Feb 2023, ended 0–1 with FC St. Pauli winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Hansa Rostock in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
FC St. Pauli in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hansa Rostock 38% versus FC St. Pauli 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hansa Rostock 43% | FC St. Pauli 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hansa Rostock 0.93 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hansa Rostock attack 0.759 / defence 0.996 | FC St. Pauli attack 1.081 / defence 0.764. League average goals — home 1.603 / away 1.391. Hansa Rostock's attack strength of 0.759 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. FC St. Pauli's defence strength of 0.764 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 47 Hansa Rostock games / 47 FC St. Pauli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 22% | Draw 29% | FC St. Pauli 49%. Fair-value odds: Hansa Rostock 4.55 | Draw 3.45 | FC St. Pauli 2.04. FC St. Pauli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC St. Pauli at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC St. Pauli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.43 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Hansa Rostock 50% | FC St. Pauli 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hansa Rostock vs FC St. Pauli | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Ostseestadion • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Nov 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 22% | Draw 29% | FC St. Pauli 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Hansa Rostock 0.93 / FC St. Pauli 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Hansa Rostock attack 0.759 / def 0.996 | FC St. Pauli attack 1.081 / def 0.764 | league avg home 1.603 / away 1.391 • Poisson stance: FC St. Pauli (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Hansa Rostock xG
Expected Goals
1.50
FC St. Pauli xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hansa Rostock vs FC St. Pauli kick off?
Hansa Rostock vs FC St. Pauli kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 25 November 2023 at Ostseestadion.
What was the final score in Hansa Rostock vs FC St. Pauli?
Hansa Rostock 2 - 3 FC St. Pauli.
Where is Hansa Rostock vs FC St. Pauli being played?
The match is being played at Ostseestadion.
What competition is Hansa Rostock vs FC St. Pauli part of?
Hansa Rostock vs FC St. Pauli is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hansa Rostock vs FC St. Pauli?
Our statistical model gives Hansa Rostock a 22% chance of winning, FC St. Pauli a 49% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making FC St. Pauli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hansa Rostock vs FC St. Pauli?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Hansa Rostock and FC St. Pauli will score (BTTS).
Will Hansa Rostock vs FC St. Pauli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and FC St. Pauli?
Record (4 meetings): Hansa Rostock 2W | Draws 0 | FC St. Pauli 2W.
What form are Hansa Rostock and FC St. Pauli in?
Hansa Rostock (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. FC St. Pauli (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Hansa Rostock's attack rating (0.76) and FC St. Pauli's defence rating (0.76), the model arrives at 0.93 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC St. Pauli's attack versus Hansa Rostock's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.6%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC St. Pauli Win
22%
4.53
29%
3.47
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Hansa Rostock xG
Total xG
2.43
1.50
FC St. Pauli xG
4.53
22%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
22%
4.47
39%
2.53
Win to Nil
5%
20.23
19%
5.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 13.2 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 5.7 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hansa Rostock vs FC St. Pauli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Hansa Rostock and FC St. Pauli expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Hansa Rostock and 1.50 for FC St. Pauli, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Hansa Rostock vs FC St. Pauli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hansa Rostock's recent record stands at 17W 6D 24L from 47 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Hansa Rostock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC St. Pauli, meanwhile, have gone 23W 16D 8L across 47 games — 1.81 PPG, with W-D-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for FC St. Pauli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC St. Pauli by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hansa Rostock heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Hansa Rostock have managed 9W 2D 12L from 23 games — 1.26 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC St. Pauli's away record stands at 10W 6D 7L across 23 trips, a 1.57 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Hansa Rostock are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; FC St. Pauli are on 1.68 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: FC St. Pauli in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hansa Rostock
Blended
FC St. Pauli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hansa Rostock and FC St. Pauli in coming into this match?
Hansa Rostock have gone 17W 6D 24L in their last 47 games (1.21 PPG), while FC St. Pauli have gone 23W 16D 8L in their last 47 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hansa Rostock at home or FC St. Pauli away?
FC St. Pauli's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hansa Rostock at home: 1.26 PPG; FC St. Pauli away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Hansa Rostock or FC St. Pauli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hansa Rostock have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, FC St. Pauli in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hansa Rostock and FC St. Pauli runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC St. Pauli have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Oct 2021, when FC St. Pauli won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hansa Rostock's record when hosting FC St. Pauli specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Hansa Rostock
0
Draws
4
FC St. Pauli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and FC St. Pauli?
From 6 meetings on record, Hansa Rostock have won 2, FC St. Pauli have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hansa Rostock and FC St. Pauli last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2024, when FC St. Pauli 1-0 Hansa Rostock.
Who has won more matches between Hansa Rostock and FC St. Pauli?
FC St. Pauli have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hansa Rostock 44%, FC St. Pauli 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Hansa Rostock) and 61% (FC St. Pauli).
On the defensive side: Hansa Rostock have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hansa Rostock home games / FC St. Pauli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hansa Rostock play FC St. Pauli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Hansa Rostock's recent matches and 56% of FC St. Pauli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hansa Rostock vs FC St. Pauli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Hansa Rostock's recent games and 61% of FC St. Pauli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hansa Rostock and FC St. Pauli tend to score early?
Hansa Rostock have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, FC St. Pauli in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC St. Pauli edge out Hansa Rostock 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC St. Pauli beat Hansa Rostock 2-3 at Ostseestadion, Regular Season - 14, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hansa Rostock 0.93 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.50 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Hansa Rostock beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC St. Pauli outscored their 1.50 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hansa Rostock attack 0.76 / defence 1.00 against FC St. Pauli attack 1.08 / defence 0.76, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hansa Rostock 22% | Draw 29% | FC St. Pauli 49%, with FC St. Pauli to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hansa Rostock 43%, FC St. Pauli 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, FC St. Pauli arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.21. Form held, and they took the win. Hansa Rostock (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.74 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.