SC Paderborn 07 1-0 Hannover 96 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hannover 96 at 39%, yet the head-to-head data favours SC Paderborn 07 — this SC Paderborn 07 vs Hannover 96 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Hannover 96 travel to Home Deluxe Arena to take on SC Paderborn 07 in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 15). The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 December 2023 at 12:30 UK time.
Form Guide
SC Paderborn 07 — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
SC Paderborn 07's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Hannover 96 have recorded 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Hannover 96's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: SC Paderborn 07 1.40 PPG, Hannover 96 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams have scored in at least 80% of each side's games (from SC Paderborn 07's last 10 home games and Hannover 96's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of SC Paderborn 07: 3 wins from 4 H2H matches against 0 for Hannover 96, with 1 draw.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 11 Feb 2023, ended SC Paderborn 07 4–3 Hannover 96 — a SC Paderborn 07 win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both SC Paderborn 07 and goals — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches and an average of 4.0 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
SC Paderborn 07 trading profile (last 48 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Hannover 96 trading profile (last 48 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Paderborn 07 65% and Hannover 96 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SC Paderborn 07 75% | Hannover 96 60%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: SC Paderborn 07 surrender their half-time lead 31% of the time, while Hannover 96 have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 1.50 xG and Hannover 96 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.941 / defence 1.131 | Hannover 96 attack 0.965 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 1.678 / away 1.441. Data: built from SC Paderborn 07's last 48 games and Hannover 96's last 48.
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 36% | Draw 25% | Hannover 96 39%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 2.79 | Draw 3.94 | Hannover 96 2.58. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.50 / 1.57) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hannover 96 as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hannover 96 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.08 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (SC Paderborn 07's last 10 home games and Hannover 96's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SC Paderborn 07 80% (last 10 home games) | Hannover 96 90% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs Hannover 96 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 15 | Venue: Home Deluxe Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 3 December 2023 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 36% | Draw 25% | Hannover 96 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG SC Paderborn 07 1.50 / Hannover 96 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.941 / def 1.131 | Hannover 96 attack 0.965 / def 0.952 | league avg home 1.678 / away 1.441 • Poisson stance: Hannover 96 (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Hannover 96 xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SC Paderborn 07 vs Hannover 96 FAQs
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs Hannover 96 kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs Hannover 96 kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Sunday 3 December 2023 at Home Deluxe Arena.
What was the final score in SC Paderborn 07 vs Hannover 96?
SC Paderborn 07 1 - 0 Hannover 96.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs Hannover 96 being played?
The match is being played at Home Deluxe Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs Hannover 96 part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs Hannover 96 is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 15) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs Hannover 96?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 36% chance of winning, Hannover 96 a 39% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Hannover 96 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs Hannover 96?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and Hannover 96 will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs Hannover 96 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SC Paderborn 07's attack at 0.94x the league average against Hannover 96's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hannover 96's attack versus SC Paderborn 07's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from SC Paderborn 07's last 48 games and Hannover 96's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hannover 96 Win
36%
2.79
25%
3.94
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
3.08
1.57
Hannover 96 xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
21%
4.82
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
7%
13.46
9%
11.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 7.3 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.9 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.2 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SC Paderborn 07 vs Hannover 96 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs Hannover 96?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and Hannover 96 expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.57 for Hannover 96, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs Hannover 96?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 48 outings, SC Paderborn 07 have picked up 1.52 PPG on a 21W 10D 17L record — D-L-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Hannover 96's form line: 18W 13D 17L from 48 games, 1.40 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: SC Paderborn 07 on 1.52 PPG, Hannover 96 on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, SC Paderborn 07 have posted 1.91 PPG from their last 23 home games (14W 2D 7L).
On the road, Hannover 96 have gone 6W 8D 9L from their last 23 away games — 1.13 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Paderborn 07 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Hannover 96 are on 1.62 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Hannover 96 in 65%.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
Hannover 96
Blended
SC Paderborn 07 (Home) vs Hannover 96 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
Hannover 96
Blended
❓ SC Paderborn 07 vs Hannover 96 Form FAQs
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and Hannover 96 in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 21W 10D 17L in their last 48 games (1.52 PPG), while Hannover 96 have gone 18W 13D 17L in their last 48 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Paderborn 07 at home or Hannover 96 away?
SC Paderborn 07's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Paderborn 07 at home: 1.91 PPG; Hannover 96 away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2021. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was on 18 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 24 Apr 2022, when SC Paderborn 07 won SC Paderborn 07 3-0 Hannover 96.
SC Paderborn 07's record when hosting Hannover 96 specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
SC Paderborn 07
3
Draws
2
Hannover 96
Recent Meetings
❓ SC Paderborn 07 vs Hannover 96 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and Hannover 96?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, SC Paderborn 07 have won 5, Hannover 96 have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SC Paderborn 07 and Hannover 96 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 April 2026: Hannover 96 1-1 SC Paderborn 07.
Who has won more matches between SC Paderborn 07 and Hannover 96?
SC Paderborn 07 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Hannover 96 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SC Paderborn 07 at 65%, Hannover 96 at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for SC Paderborn 07 and 56% for Hannover 96. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / Hannover 96 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SC Paderborn 07 vs Hannover 96 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SC Paderborn 07 and Hannover 96 matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of SC Paderborn 07's games and 70% of Hannover 96's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are SC Paderborn 07 and Hannover 96 matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of SC Paderborn 07's matches and 56% of Hannover 96's.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and Hannover 96 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of SC Paderborn 07's recent matches and 78% of Hannover 96's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SC Paderborn 07 defy the odds to beat Hannover 96 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Paderborn 07 beat Hannover 96 1-0 at Home Deluxe Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 1.50 xG and Hannover 96 1.57 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Hannover 96 landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.94 / defence 1.13 against Hannover 96 attack 0.96 / defence 0.95, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 36% | Draw 25% | Hannover 96 39%, with Hannover 96 to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual SC Paderborn 07 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 75%, Hannover 96 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Hannover 96's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Paderborn 07 1.52 PPG, Hannover 96 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Paderborn 07 win broke the near-deadlock. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Hannover 96 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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